This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks for Sunday, September 8
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Colorado Rockies 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
Happy NFL Sunday. Gluing your eyes to Red Zone all day does not mitigate the fact we still have baseball fantasy teams to sweat over and games to wager on today. I love/hate the crazy multitasking today and for the next two Sundays. Let's get right to the picks.
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Picking on teams that can not stop whiffing has worked fairly well this season, even as the betting markets keep adjusting higher. How about we return to the Road Rockies? Today, Colorado travels to the great city of Milwaukee, which best I understand is Algonquin for "the good land." The Rockies rank second in the league with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate, but they have only trended worse as that number sits at a league-worst 29 percent since August 1st. Colorado fields interesting young players like Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia. All have taken major steps forward in 2024. A big issue with all three is they just swing and miss too much. Doyle plays gold glove defense in center and has a .341 wOBA with 22 homers and 26 steals, but has a 26.1 percent strikeout rate on the season that has spiked up to 29.7 percent since the beginning of August. That marks a major improvement from his 35 percent rate in 2023, but he needs to stop the recent trend. Tovar has a somewhat similar profile as he has an excellent glove at short and a .324 wOBA with 22 homers, but a 29.2 percent strikeout rate that has jumped to 32.8 percent since August 1st. Toglia has a .337 wOBA and 17.2 percent Barrel rate, but it comes with a 14.4 percent SwStr rate and a 30.9 percent strikeout rate.
Those numbers also all benefit from playing half their games in Coors Field, a hitter's paradise. Get the Rockies on the road and they strike out more. As a team, they have a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, easily the worst mark in the league. Mr. Rockies himself, Charlie Blackmon, has just a 14.7 percent strikeout rate on the road. Catcher Jacob Stallings checks in at 16.5 percent, but beyond that, no one who may start today strikeouts fewer than 27.3 percent in away games.
They face Freddy Peralta today, the Brewers pitcher best able to capitalize here. The ace has disappointed a tad overall as he looked poised for a big breakout in 2024, He has gone 10-7 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, good but not exceptional numbers. Peralta's 3.79 SIERA and 3.89 xERA suggest his metrics accurately reflect his performance.
He does still strike out batters at an excellent rate, though his 27.3 percent strikeout rate and 12.9 percent SwStr rate modestly lag his career marks of 27.3 percent and 13.4 percent, respectively. He has slowed down a bit of late, with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate since the All-Star break. I will bank on Peralta getting himself right today.
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Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 20-year-old future superstar has officially arrived. On May 31st, Jackson Chourio was a part-time player hitting near the bottom of the order and carrying a .210 batting average. And then it all clicked. He regularly leads off and has a .317 average since June 1st, with 16 homers 90 hits, 49 runs and 53 RBI in 313 plate appearances across 77 games.
He will face off against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies' ostensible ace has pitched worse on the road this year than at home. The Denver-area native has a 3.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Coors, but a 6.75 ERA and 1.67 everywhere else.
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
