This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, September 10
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For the first time in almost a week we have no football on TV today. What a day for baseball.
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
This somehow counts as an MLB "rivalry" series. Until Portland gets an expansion, I suppose it makes sense. The two teams do share a spring training facility.
The Padres field the better offense, especially now with Fernando Tatis Jr. back. In the last 30 days, they have a 111 wRC+, good for eighth in MLB. Manny Machado has seriously heated up, slashing .293/.360/.545 over that stretch, with seven homers. As a team, they have taken on the personality of leadoff hitter Luis Arraez in that they just do not strike out. They have a 15.4 percent strikeout rate, by far the best in MLB over the last 30 days.
Unfortunately for the Padres, they face the rare stud pitcher who does not rely on strikeouts in George Kirby. The Mariner ace has "just" a 23.3 percent strikeout rate. He excels by limiting free passes with his microscopic three percent walk rate and mitigating hard contact at a 36.4 percent Hard-Hit rate. He has parlayed that into a nice 3.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
The Mariners have had a lousy offense for most of the season, but have picked it up in the last 30 days with a team wRC+ of 108 that ranks 10th. I like the F5 on this one for the pitching matchup as they will face Yu Darvish in just his second outing since returning from injury and personal issues. He only went 2.2 meh innings (three earned runs, four hits, two walks, four strikeouts) in his first start back, so Darvish will likely not make it through the first five innings as he continues to build himself back up.
MLB Picks for Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
- Mariners F5 (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
We have a matchup of good pitchers here, Zac Gallen vs Nathan Eovaldi, which helps keep the F5 total on the lower side. That's good because we can get a better price on a Diamondbacks over. Arizona has cooled off very modestly lately but still leads MLB over the last 30 days with a 123 wRC+. They pace all of MLB on the season with 782 runs, way ahead of the second-place Yankees at 730. Arizona also has gotten healthier as Ketel Marte and Christian Walker both returned recently, joining the red-hot Corbin Carroll. Further, Arizona has minted money on F5 overs, going 86-58 with a 14.1 percent return on investment (ROI), per VSiN.com. That improves to 44-26, +20.6 percent ROI at home.
MLB Picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
- F5 Over 4.0 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
We have the Chris Bassitt revenge game. Okay, not really. He did pitch a season for the Mets, and best I remember there was no acrimony associated with his departure. The Mets have won 10 of their last 11, but thank the pitchers for that. They have slashed just .231/.311 /.379 as a team, including a 3-2 win over the Jays last night where they totaled just three hits. David Peterson gets the ball for New York. According to surface stats, he has pitched great since his return from injury in late spring. The big lefty has a 9-1 record and 2.87 ERA, despite a mediocre and career-worst 19.5 percent strikeout rate. He succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground with a 5.8 launch angle and 52.6 percent ground ball rate. The Mets have excellent gloves up the middle in Francisco Lindor and Jose Iglesias. Yes, pitchers with this profile can get BABIP-ed into submission at times, but I will plan on that not happening tonight.
MLB Picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
- Under 8.0 Runs (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mariners F5 (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- F5 Over 4.0 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Under 8.0 Runs (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
