This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
What's good team!? Some of you have probably been wondering where JohnnyVTV has been hiding. The short answer is I have been buried in College Baseball for the past month. Still, I had to take time out of Omaha euphoria stage to drop you my best bet for tonight's MLB slate.
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Chicago White Sox (+165) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) | Over/Under 8.5
It's not a secret I have shelved the MLB until July with the College Baseball home stretch consuming my life. But sometimes there are things that jump off a sportsbook's website and smacks you straight in the face. Tonight that happens in the nightcap.
Chicago has been a picture of ignorance is bliss this year. As predicted, they have been dreadful to this point with a 29-38 record. However, thanks to the laughable AL Central division, they are only somehow 4.5 games back. On Tuesday night, they are throwing Lance Lynn to face the Dodgers. In case you missed what the big country boy has been up to in 2023, he's gotten steamrolled to a 6.72 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and allowed 16 taters (T-3rd most). In his last two outings (against the Yankees and Angels), he's surrendered 13 earned runs (four homers) across nine innings. While he's actually better on the road than at home (7.64 ERA), his 5.95 ERA and .274 OBA don't exactly instill confidence. Despite the mini-slide LA is in, this is a bad matchup for Lynn.
The Dodgers have still managed to score runs even though they have lost their last three series. In 10 of the last 14 contests, LAD has notched at least five runs. While I do believe taking the boys in blue at -1.5 on the run line as a home team is still a good play, I think the best spot tonight here is getting them to go over 4.5 runs with a little vig. Lynn has given up five runs by himself in five of 13 starts, and allowed four runs thrice. Not to mention, they average 5.6 runs at home this season, as opposed to 5.47 on the road. This is definitely a plus EV play.
Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 runs -135
