This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB Bets Today: AL East Rundown
Pitchers and Catchers have reported! Exhibition games start February 20th. Baseball is officially here! Let's check out the AL East, where we find the Yankees as the big betting favorites.
AL East Odds
- New York Yankees +110
- Baltimore Orioles +285
- Boston Red Sox +425
- Tampa Bay Rays +750
- Toronto Blue Jays +1500
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Projected AL East Standings 2025
*courtesy of Fangraphs
MLB Picks: AL East Futures and Betting Notes
New York Yankees
- 91.5 Wins (-120 Over)
- To Make Playoffs -390 Yes, +300 No
- Key Adds: Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt
- Key Loss: Juan Soto
- Yankees Betting Notes:
- '24 Overs; 87-62, 12.1% ROI when the Yankees were ML favorite
- '21-'24 Road at plus money; 46-44, 12.96% ROI in road games
Losing Soto and his 8.1 WAR from last season obviously stings, but I'll give them credit for pivoting well. Bellinger could thrive with the short porch in right though his batted ball metrics kind of underwhelm. Goldy should at least provide a big upgrade at 1st and Fried gives them another near ace if he can stay healthy. The Yankees won 94 games in 2024 and I don't really see why they can't get there again. Fangraphs begs to differ as they have the Bombers at just 87 wins. I'll buck that and go with the over 91.5 Wins at -120
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Baltimore Orioles
- 87.5 Wins
- To Make Playoffs -175 Yes +145 No
- Key Adds: Tyler O'Neill, Felix Bautista (from injury), Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton
- Key Losses: Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander
- Orioles Betting Notes:
- '24 Home; 44-39 but just a -13.2% ROI
- '23-'24 Road at plus money since '23; 40-27, 35.09% ROI
The O's tailed off badly in the 2nd half of last season amid a team-wide batting slump. They replaced staff ace Burnes with a couple back-end SP's and Santander and his 44 homers with O'Neill, who has pop but never stays on the field.
Yes, it's still a really young team with a bunch of huge potential stars who should all keep improving, except maybe for Gunnar Henderson who is already one of the top players in the game and may have trouble popping 37 homers again. And yes, maybe Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy and emerges as a legit ace. But this offseason really called for bringing in real impact guys to augment the terrific young and still affordable corps and if anything they downgraded. Fangraphs 83 wins sure seems low, but the betting number is 87.5. Lets go with Under.
Boston Red Sox
- 86.5 Wins
- To Make Playoffs -115 Yes, -105 No
- Key Adds: Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Alex Bregman
- Key Losses: Tyler O'Neill, Nick Pivetta
- Betting Notes:
- '24 vs lefty starters; 17-26 -22.4% ROI
- '23-'24 Home in division; 29-16, 20.14% ROI
After a few years of self-induced uninteresting mediocrity, the Sox attempted to actually act like a bigger market team again this past offseason. They've reprised their Chris Sale trade with the White Sox with the Crochet add and they have a bunch of great prospects on the doorstep and a nice corps of hitting already here in Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Jarren Duran. Plus, they added Bregman.
Moving Devers to DH and letting Bregman play 3rd is their best defensive alignment, but Devers has publicly balked at making the swtich. That's a shame as they have a pitching staff loaded with possible big upside reclamation projects and it would really help to have good gloves behind them (though Crochet had a 35.1% K% last season so it won't impact him enormously). I'll bank on the Sox getting past the drama and will roll with the Over 86.5 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays
- 81.5 Wins, -115 Over, -105 Under
- To Make Playoffs +180 Yes, -220 No
- Key Adds: Shane McClanahan (from Injury), Ha-Seong Kim
- Key Losses: Jeffrey Springs
- Rays Betting Notes
- '24 Unders; 47-32, 13.2% ROI
- '21-'24 Road in division; 71-57, 12.69% ROI
The Rays' big add is probably Junior Caminero exploding as they move outdoors to Steinbrenner Field and the Florida humidity combined with Yankee Stadium dimensions. On the flip side, Tampa might find it tough to maintain their excellent pitching with the move plus all the rain delays they're going to now have. They always churn to keep payroll down and the replacements perform just as well. With the dominant pitching that's carried them for years now being exposed to hitter-friendly elements, it's tough to trust this roster to adjust and compete in this tough division. I'm on the Under.
Toronto Blue Jays
- 78.5 Wins, Over -115, Under -105
- To Make Playoffs Yes +285, No -360
- Key Adds: Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Andres Gimenez, Jeff Hoffman
- Key Losses: Jordan Romano
- Jays Betting Notes
- '22-'24 Road Unders 27-15, 23.06% in March-April
- '22-'24 Home Unders 22-13, 21.97% ROI in March-April
The Jays have gone all in (to a point) as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette enter their walk years. So they really need to remain in contention in July or face a massive selloff. That could work both ways though as they likely add at the deadline if they are in the race. It's almost certainly the last dance with Vlad before he (hopefully) signs elsewhere next offseason. Adding Santander really helps the lineup this season and maybe Max has a few bullets left in the arm. It really looks like they will pull out any possible stops to compete this season. I'll go with the over and a ½ unit on the Playoff prop at +285.
AL East Best Bets
- Yankees Over 91.5 wins -120
- Orioles Under 87.5 wins
- Red Sox Over 86.5 wins
- Rays Under 81.5 wins -105
- Blue Jays Over 78.5 wins -115
- Blue Jays to make playoffs ¼ Unit at +285
