MLB NLCS Game 5 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, October 18

MLB NLCS Game 5 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, October 18

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets Today: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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The New York Mets take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth game of this seven-game series.  The Dodgers are currently up 3-1 in the series after splitting the first two games at home and then winning the first two games at Citi Field. They need just one more win to make it back to the World Series for the first time since they won it in 2020 during COVID when they weren't at home and there were no fans in the stands. The regular season was only 30 games long and the playoffs were a very modified format, so there are a lot of haters out there that say that World Series doesn't count. I am not one of those haters, but I will say I can guarantee there is nothing more that the Dodgers want than getting back to the World Series and winning it in front of their fans, and proving those haters wrong. The Dodgers had the best record in the league in the regular season, as they often do, but they haven't been able to break through. In 2022 and 2023, they lost in the first round of the playoffs and only won one game while losing six. This year was different.  They went down 2-1 in the National League Division Series (NLDS) series to the Padres and had to play a game on the road, but they never wavered. They won that game and went home for Game 5, where they took the lead early and never looked back after shutting out the red-hot Padres offense. It looked like the National League Championship Series (NLCS) was going to be a battle of heavyweights, especially after the Mets took Game 2 to even the series before heading back home. However, the Dodgers had other ideas. They won each of the first two games in New York handily and are now a game away from the World Series.

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The Mets had a much different path to this point in the playoffs. They got off to a terrible start in the regular season and fought from the start. For a while, it looked like they weren't even in playoff consideration, let alone making the playoffs, but they turned it on in the second half of the season. The last National League Wild Card playoff spot came all the way down to the last game of the season, and due to a Hurricane, there was a very weird circumstance to even make the playoffs. The Braves and Mets played a doubleheader to end the regular season – if each team won a game, they would both make the playoffs. If one of the teams won both games, the other would miss the playoffs. The Mets won the first game, launching them on this playoff run. They have looked like a team of destiny these whole playoffs up until this series when the Dodgers dominated them in three of the four games so far.

This is one of those games where I would think the Mets would show up at home and at least win one of these home games to send the series back to Los Angeles. However, they just aren't hitting with runners on base whatsoever right now and look demoralized because of it. A team can only take so many bases loaded and less than two out opportunities and let them go by before they start pressing. David Peterson is starting for the Mets in what will likely be a bullpen game. He has pitched four times this postseason but the one time he faced the Dodgers he allowed three runs in 2.1 innings. Jack Flaherty is starting for the Dodgers in his third postseason start. He struggled in his first start against the Padres but dominated the Mets when he faced them, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings. The Dodgers have a great and deep bullpen, and their lineup is producing, while the Mets' bullpen has been struggling and their lineup can't get any runs across.  I think the Dodgers end the Mets' run at Citi Field tonight.

Best MLB Bet Today

Dodgers ML (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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