This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
We're in the thick of an extended holiday weekend in America. Sunday afternoon I'm going to do the traditional 4th of July thing and go to see a critically-acclaimed Korean movie. If you plan to do the same, or do something else, be sure to get your DFS lineups in first. There are 14 games on the slate, with the first three starting at 1:35 p.m. ET. Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Gerrit Cole, NYY at STL ($47): Let's start with an ace in Cole. Remember that brief furor over Cole's spin rate after MLB clamped down on foreign substances? Well, the one-time first-overall pick has a 2.78 ERA and 3.39 FIP, so he's doing just fine. While Cole's strikeouts are down, so are his home runs. That's key here. The Cardinals are middling in terms of runs scored, but in the top eight in homers. If St. Louis isn't going yard, they tend to not score.
Ranger Suarez, PHI vs. WAS ($45): Suarez has fashioned himself into a new pitcher, or so it seems. Over his last six starts he has an 1.35 ERA. I understand if you are skeptical of that, but there are still a couple reasons to slot Suarez into your lineup. One, the Nationals are in the bottom eight in runs scored. Two, Suarez is a southpaw who has held lefties to a .161 average since 2021, and Washington's usual lineup has a few lefties in it.
Taj Bradley, TAM at SEA ($38): I'd like to target the Athletics, but the White Sox have said they might skip Michael Kopech's start this week, so we don't know who will be on the mound for them. You'd think you'd love to see a pitcher face the A's if you're looking to get him on track, but I digress. Bradley has a 4.58 ERA overall but a 3.68 ERA on the road. Also, he has a 3.69 FIP and has struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. The Rays pitcher has held lefties to a .229 matchup, and the Mariners have a few lefty regulars in their lineup, a unit which sits in the bottom five in team batting average.
Top Targets
A revitalized J.D. Martinez ($20) has hit 19 homers, already surpassing the 16 he had last season. I assume he'll pass the 28 that he hit in 2021 as well. On top of that, Martinez has a .923 OPS versus righties and a 1.028 OPS on the road. Brady Singer admittedly doesn't allow an unusual number of homers, but he has a 5.88 ERA in part because righties have hit .301 against him.
There are flaws in the batting profile of rookie Ezequiel Tovar ($20), specifically an allergy to walks, but he has a .270 average with eight homers and four stolen bases. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has slugged .469 at Coors Field this year (with a .320 OBP because, again, no walks). Matt Manning has only made three starts this season, so I'm not looking at his 2023 numbers too much, but he has a career 4.73 ERA and has struck out a mere 6.3 batters per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
It figures that George Springer ($17) has a healthy season and his numbers are down, though he does have 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Notably, though, his issues have been against lefties and on the road. Sunday he will be at home facing a righty in Garrett Whitlock. Once a strong reliever, Whitlock has a 5.15 ERA as a starter this year and has allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings.
Hey, it's July and it's Coors Field, so I'm doubling down on a game between two of the worst teams in MLB. Zach McKinstry ($7) has earned a regular role in Detroit's lackluster lineup, tallying six homers and 11 stolen bases. Sure, he's not much of a hitter in a vacuum, but he's in MLB's best hitter's park facing Connor Seabold, who has a career 7.16 ERA. Seabold has also allowed 1.95 home runs per nine innings in his career, even though this is his first season pitching for Colorado.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta vs. Marlins (Sandy Alcantara): Matt Olson ($24), Eddie Rosario ($21), Michael Harris ($19)
Maybe last season was the anomaly for Alcantara. After all, his 3.69 FIP this year is more in line with his career 3.63 FIP than his 2.98 FIP in 2022. He still doesn't allow many home runs, but his groundball rate is down and his line-drive rate is up, with fewer strikeouts and more walks as well. I landed on three lefties from Atlanta for this stack, and lefties have managed to hit .257 against Alcantara this year.
Admittedly, Olson's game is built around power and hitting home runs, now more than ever. He's hit 28 homers this season, basically locking in his fourth 30-home season, and possibly his first with over 40. I still like the southpaw against Alcantara, though, as he has an 1.001 OPS versus right-handed pitchers this year, and he's slugged .527 against righties since 2021. After a power outage last season, Rosario has slugged .504 with 14 home runs this year. Prior to last season, the lefty had slugged .473 in his career, and I will note he's done this with zero change to his launch angle, which I take as another sign 2022 was a fluke. Harris has seven homers and nine stolen bases, and he's looked more like the guy he was as a rookie recently. He has an 1.091 OPS over the last three weeks.
Giants at Mets (David Peterson): Patrick Bailey ($18), J.D. Davis ($17), Wilmer Flores ($17)
Peterson is coming off six shutout innings against the Brewers, which dropped his ERA all the way down to…7.00. Even when he was down at Triple-A, he posted a 4.86 ERA. Granted, Peterson has a 3.24 ERA at home, but last year his home ERA was 4.42. The southpaw has allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings, and righties have hit .314 against him. San Francisco's lineup is banged up and lefty-heavy, but I found a stack that works for me.
Bailey wasn't necessarily a top prospect, but he's already established himself as the catcher in the lineup against lefties. Both numbers come in meager sample sizes, but he has an 1.245 OPS against lefties and a .947 OPS on the road. Davis, a former Met, has a .362 OBP. He also likely won't mind visiting his old stomping grounds, as he has a .910 OPS on the road in 2023. LaMonte Wade is a lefty, and is banged up, so I expect Flores in the lineup. He hit 19 home runs last season, and he has an .804 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Phillies vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams): Kyle Schwarber ($21), Brandon Marsh ($14), Bryce Harper ($13)
If a lefty has power, you want him in your lineup against Williams. He has a 5.33 FIP and has allowed 1.80 home runs per nine innings. Since 2021, righties have hit .252 against Williams, which isn't bad, but lefties have hit .294. Fortunately, the Phillies offer up the southpaw power I'm looking for.
Since 2021, Schwarber has slugged .548 against right-handed pitchers. He has 22 home runs after a torrid June, a nice reminder he led the National League with 46 homers in 2022. Marsh was just a guy with the Angels, but he's become a real weapon at the plate since joining the Phillies. He has seven homers and four stolen bases, but the southpaw also has an .892 OPS against righties and an .889 OPS at home. Yes, Harper's overall numbers don't look like his usual production, especially when it comes to power. Blame lefties, though. Against righties, Harper has looked like his MVP self with a .912 OPS.
