This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's main slate Saturday gets going in the evening at 7:10 p.m. EDT and only features five games, so we're likely to find very chalky ideas, while being different in builds comes with ample risk. All 10 starters appear confirmed, and none are priced at more than $9,000, so we don't have to pay a premium for pitching.
Braves-Diamondbacks is our highest run total at 9.5, while Rays-Padres is our low spot at 7.0. Thankfully, we look dry and not at risk of seeing the slate cut even shorter. Winds look to be gusty and outbound in San Diego and Los Angeles.
Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. MIA ($9,000): He'll be heavily rostered, but it's best to not overthink, especially in cash formats, as it's the most obvious soft matchup. Miami isn't awful against righties, but still below average with a 95 wRC+ while striking out 24.8 percent of the time. Castillo has allowed only four runs across 17.0 home innings. The ceiling may not be elite, as he's averaging just 7.9 K/9 and likely won't work more than six innings, but the floor seemingly is a 3x return.
Framber Valdez, HOU at KC ($8,600): Valdez is the only lefty starting on this slate, and while the Royals come with a modest 23.7 percent K rate, they simply aren't doing any damage offensively, scoring the fewest runs in the league while posting a 76 wRC+ and .075 ISO off southpaws. Valdez has been knocked around in his last two starts, but previously posted 43-plus FanDuel points in two of three, so there's a ceiling here. Run support and a win is questionable given the Astros' slumping bats, but Valdez should be safe to work five or more innings with a strikeout per frame.
Michael Wacha, KC vs. HOU ($7,100): There's ample reason to punt pitching on this short slate, and I'd expect many to gravitate toward Roki Sasaki ($7,800). But as noted above, the Houston offense is struggling, and statistically worse than Pittsburgh, Sasaki's adversary. The struggle for me is I suggested stacking Houston Friday and they flamed out, so going the complete opposite direction could bomb. But numbers don't lie, and the Astros sit with a .290 wOBA, 90 wRC+ and .108 ISO off righties. The converse is while only six Astros have faced Wacha, they're 10-for-24 (.417) with three homers and a 1.361 OPS. Form versus history here makes for a risk, which is baked into the price.
Top Targets
This starts with Dodger bats most nights, and it's amplified on the smaller slate. Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is allowing a .356 wOBA to lefties against .213 to righties. Pair that with an 8-for-15 (.533) and 1.388 OPS against him, and Freddie Freeman ($3,600) makes sense.
Bobby Witt ($3,800) has shown a shockingly low ceiling to date but comes with an elite floor, riding a 17-game hitting streak. He's earned a .490 wOBA and 227 wRC+ off lefties to date, though he's just 1-for-12 against Valdez.
This column shouldn't omit either side of the highest scoring expectancy, so while expensive, Corbin Carroll ($4,500) looks like a set it and forget it option Saturday. He's hit safely in 16 of his last 17.
Bargain Bats
I initially thought about stacking a surging Braves offense, but they're collectively just 9-for-53 (.170) with a .564 OPS off Arizona starter Merrill Kelly. Austin Riley ($3,400) is the exception, going 4-for-9 with a homer. Pair that with 10 hits and six RBI across his last six, and he's a nice stand alone play.
We noted the Astros success against Wacha above, and if you're buying into that, Christian Walker ($2,700) goes into your lineup. He's 4-for-5 with a homer off the Royals' starter, and quietly has five hits in his last three and has hit in four of six.
Chandler Simpson ($2,600) is likely an every night consideration until/unless his price flirts with $3,000. We know there's no power potential at all, but he's hit safely in every game since being promoted and is more than just a threat to run, which in turn gives him scoring potential and a double-digit ceiling.
Stack to Consider
Padres vs. Ryan Pepiot (Rays): Fernando Tatis ($4,200), Manny Machado ($3,500), Gavin Sheets ($2,900)
The easy answer is to target the Mariners against the slate's cheapest pitcher, and while not intentionally left out of this column, you do likely want some Seattle bats in your build. But perhaps that gives us some lower roster percentages on the Padres, who are more expensive at the top end and also not in elite form. Pepiot has yet to pitch outside of Tampa, but is allowing a .428 wOBA to righties and eight homers across 28.0 innings overall. Tatis and Machado are givens as top options, but the third piece is less obvious. I side with Sheets over Xander Bogaerts ($2,600) despite Sheets being a lefty, as Bogaerts has no power upside. If we buy the wind blowing out here, it's a plus spot
