This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A large 12-game main slate is in play Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 EDT. Miami is without a listed starter, giving us 23 options to sort through on the mound, three of which are priced in five-figures with six more sitting at the $9,000 tier. That represents just 39.1 percent of the options, suggesting we don't necessarily need to pay up, though doing so could provide an advantage if that ace pops.
Rain won't play a factor in any game, so we can target every option available. Winds look mild across the slate, with the exception of San Francisco, where we reportedly have 20-plus mph gusts blowing out. Boston could see a minor boost as well. No game has a double-digit run total, and no team has an implied total north of the Giants and Yankees at 5.8. The Giants are the slate's biggest favorite at (-270), followed by the Astros (-240) and Yankees (-210).
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET at LAA ($10,600): There isn't a large enough price difference in the top tier for me to fade Skubal. He's allowed just two runs over his last four starts, spanning 24 innings while striking out 30. In three of those four, he's provided at least 46 FanDuel points (FDP), a fair 4.3x return. And with the Angels striking out at a 28.2 percent mark off lefties, there's more upside potential. And given they rank second-to-last with a .254 wOBA and 59 wRC+, the floor should be plenty high.
Robbie Ray, SF vs. COL ($8,400): This looks like an absolute smash spot for Ray, who's rounding into form with seven-plus strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Colorado comes with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate off southpaws, posting a 62 wRC+ and .135 ISO. Then there's the wind consideration. If it's truly as blustery as our weather report suggests, Ray's 48.8 percent fly ball rate is a concern. Colorado comes with a 43.6 percent fly ball rate, the sixth highest in the league. They've been so woeful, even at home, it may not matter, but there's enough concern to not go all in. Ray is probably still the right cash game play for some savings, but he's a bit dicier in GPPs.
Brayan Bello, BOS vs. MIN ($8,100): Bello has earned 31 and 27 FDP in his first two starts, so we can tentatively expect at least a 3x return with not much additional upside. This is more of an exercise in who do you trust below this price point? For me, it's not really anyone. Minnesota's 20.5 percent K rate off righties further limits his potential, but with a middling 101 wRC+ and .309 wOBA off righties, Bello should again limit damage and give us five or six innings while getting decent run support.
Top Targets
Freddie Freeman ($3,700) returns to Atlanta Friday and figures to be a thorn in his former team's side. He's got an absurd .540 wOBA, 250 wRC+ and .438 ISO off righties, while collecting 10 hits, six walks, six runs and six RBI over his last six.
Alex Bregman ($3,800) is riding an 11-game hitting streak and 14-game on-base streak, collecting 22 hits in that span. He's also 6-for-13 (.462) with a homer, three doubles and a 1.456 OPS off Twins' starter Joe Ryan.
Bobby Witt's ($3,600) price is down as he's not providing much in terms of big games. But he's riding a 22-game hitting streak and homered in his last game. Orioles' starter Dean Kremer has allowed 10 runs and 15 hits over his last 11.0 innings. The price break means we don't need as high of a ceiling, and Witt profiles with one of the safest floors a hitter can have.
Bargain Bats
Riley Greene ($3,100) leads the Tigers with a .376 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .263 ISO off righties, and has eight hits in his last four.
My inclination is to stack Orioles Friday, as the game has the highest run total, and we can't trust much outside of Witt from Kansas City. But starter Michael Wacha doesn't have targetable splits, so maybe a mini-stack from Baltimore bats to round out builds is the better play. Cedric Mullins ($3,300) is the most expensive, and is 9-for-23 (.391) with two homers and 1.243 OPS off Wacha. If you're a BvP guy and need additional value, Ryan Mountcastle ($2,600) is 10-for-22 (.455) with three homers and a 1.433 OPS, and Ramon Urias ($2,400) is 5-for-16 (.313) with a homer and 1.000 OPS.
It's a small sample size at just 21 batters, but Guardians starter Logan Allen has allowed a .506 wOBA and 1.156 OPS to same-handed hitters. Daulton Varsho ($2,700) isn't a lock to play in an LvL matchup, but has homered in consecutive games.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Jung Hoo Lee ($3,200), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100), Willy Adames ($2,600)
It's all systems go with the Giants Friday night, and truthfully the entire lineup is in play, so at least consider Matt Chapman ($3,000) and Heliot Ramos ($3,100) as well. Senzatela has a much higher ERA at home (obviously), but he's still getting hit on the road, allowing a .429 wOBA and .972 OPS to righties, and .516/1.188 to lefties. This trio likely hits 1-2-3 in the order and gives us two lefties and a cheap righty in Adames, who's homered off Senzatela once in seven at bats. Senzatela is a ground ball guy at 56.4 percent, but he's allowing a 20.6 HR/FB rate, and with the wind we're expecting, any fly ball is a threat to leave the yard.
Cubs vs. Quinn Priester (Brewers): Seiya Suzuki ($3,600), Ian Happ ($3,200), Michael Busch ($3,000)
Sure, we'd love to build through Kyle Tucker ($4,300), but we could also take pieces around him in hopes of benefiting. Priester is due some serious regression; his 3.79 ERA comes with a 4.93 xFIP and he's walking 5.7 per nine while striking out just 6.1. Busch is sporting a .401 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .256 ISO off righties, while Suzuki sits at .377/143/.307. Happ gives us a leadoff option who has six hits and four runs over his last three.
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