This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
11 games are offered for our dissection Tuesday evening in FanDuel's main slate. San Diego hasn't made their pitching plans known as of Monday night, giving us 21 pitchers to sort through. Six of those are priced in five figures, though only two more carry $9k price points, making for a top-heavy pitching slate. We currently only have one game, Colorado at Cincinnati, flirting with a 10-run total, so perhaps the low scoring expectancy across the slate offers pitching value? We shall see.
Pitching
Marcus Stroman, CHC at PIT ($10,300): It's fair to be scared off with an arm making consecutive starts against the same lineup as Stroman is here, but Pittsburgh's bats are fading rapidly. Stroman limited the Bucs to two runs over six innings last time out, his sixth straight quality start and ninth in his last 10 outings. The Pirates are down to a 93 wRC+ and up to 23.0 percent strikeout rate. They also have a 40.9 percent ground ball rate off righties, playing right into Stroman's strenghts. There's nothing to suggest he'll combust here, making for a nice stable play with 40 FDP potential.
Aaron Civale, CLE vs. OAK ($8,400): Civale threw 95 pitches in his last outing; that's an important number to consider if scanning game logs, as he managed just 3.2 innings. He fanned seven against a far more potent San Diego lineup, and has now earned at least 26 FDP in three straight since returning from injury. That pitch count shows he can work longer if he finds some efficiency, and Oakland will be the worst lineup he's faced all season, sitting with an 86 wRC+ and 25.8 percent K rate. Mix in his 43.2 percent ground ball rate, and there's reason to think Civale's floor is 30 FDP with room for a touch more.
Justin Verlander, NYM at HOU ($8,200): This price point is ridiculous when paired with the name recognition. Verlander has alternated dominating outings with stinkers across his last five, and if that holds here, he's due to be shelled. But emotion is as real as stats, and you have to think he'll have some extra juice in his return to Houston. Statistically, there's nothing to like here, Verlander's K rate is at an all-time low (7.8 per nine) and his 4.40 ERA matches his 4.34 xFIP. But the Astros, without Yordan Alvarez, aren't a nightly juggernaut that were shut down Monday. There's a clear narrative for major upside here at a very reduced cost.
Top Targets
The low scoring expectations across the slate allow for some upper-tier bats to be overlooked. Freddie Freeman ($4,300) fits that bill. Angels starter Reid Detmers is surrendering a .394 wOBA to same-handed bats, and Freeman sits with a .446 wOBA, 186 wRC+ and .374 ISO off of lefties.
Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) keeps rolling along, having now provided double-digit fantasy points in 10 straight, with eight of those topping 20 FDP. Perhaps the matchup with Clayton Kershaw scares some away, giving us lower roster rates.
Bargain Bats
I'd expect the masses will target Cleveland bats against Luis Medina, and rightfully so. If we want to be different, consider Amed Rosario ($2,800), who is sandwiched between the Guardians' run producing bats, all of which are left-handed. Medina is targetable regardless, but he's been more vulnerable to righties, allowing a .405 wOBA and .973 OPS. Rosario hasn't been great outside of hits, but does have 10 of those in his last five.
Reds' bats are going to be the other very obvious target Tuesday against Kyle Freeland, who has allowed 15 runs across his last 22.0 innings. Grabbing Kevin Newman ($2,700), who has a .397 wOBA, 144 wRC+, hits in eight of his last 10 games and sits atop the order gives us a share to let the popular options get him home, cost savings and the opportuntity to differintiate.
If you're a BvP truist, take a look at Matt Carpenter ($2,600) to round out your lineup. He's a cool 13-for-29 (.448) with four homers and a 1.600 OPS off of Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani, who's allowed 12 runs across his last 12.0 innings.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Colin Rea: Corbin Carroll ($4,300), Ketel Marte ($3,700), Christian Walker ($3,500)
Rea doesn't have overwhelmingly bad numbers against either handed bats, but does have a 4.71 ERA and 4.81 FIP, allowing at least three runs in four of his last six starts. On a slate I find difficult to stack, the hot Diamondback bats make ample sense. Carroll is an everyday option, and has a .444 wOBA, 181 wRC+ and .359 ISO off righties to date. Walker is surging with multi-hit games in four straight, homering three times and driving in 10 in his last six. Marte too is feeling it, ith multi-hit games in three of his last six, scoring eight runs in that span.
Brewers vs. Ryne Nelson: Christian Yelich ($3,500), Willy Adames ($2,900), Rowdy Tellez ($2,700)
As I just mentioned, I find this slate to be a challenging one to stack offensively. We're going to stay in the same game and highlight Milwaukee bats off Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.30 ERA, 5.15 FIP and doesn't miss many bats, striking out just 5.8 per nine, a known weakness for the Brewers. It's lefties that have been his trouble spot, allowing a .434 wOBA and 1.021 OPS to them, making Yelich an easy anchor and stand alone option, while also perhaps allowing Tellez to break out of his power drought. The third piece is far less obvious, but I'll roll with Adames near the top of the batting order, though could be convinced for GPP purposes to toy with forcing a third lefty in Jesse Winker ($2,200).
