This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
10 games are featured in FanDuel's Tuesday main slate, which claims to start at 7:05 p.m. EDT but oddly includes the Mets-Marlins game at 4:10, so get those lineups in early!
Two arms are priced in five-figures, while seven more check in at $9,000 or greater, so it's certainly a loaded pitching slate where we likely have to pay up, and offense seems scarce. Run lines don't fully support that however, as we've got Coors Field on the slate, as well as a Diamondbacks-Orioles and Nationals-Dodgers matchup that comes with 9.5 run expectancy.
Weather appears to be a major factor despite it being dry. It's cold in the northeast, and windy. It appears as though we'll see 20-plus mph winds blowing out in Citi Field, and double-digit wind potential in all of Chicago, Denver and San Francisco.
Pitching
Shane Baz, TB vs. LAA ($9,500)
There's nothing wrong with the options above Baz, so feel free to deploy them at your leisure, but we can chase upside for slightly cheaper in the Rays' starter. Baz was electric in his season debut, fanning 10 across six innings, scattering seven hits. That came against a Pirates lineup that not many fear, but one that's striking out at a moderate 22.9 percent in the early going against righties. The Angels aren't far off at 21.9 percent, and while Los Angeles has been slightly above average with a 102 wRC+, it comes with just a .176 ISO and a 45.4 percent ground ball rate, hopefully helping to negate the short porch in right field.
Clay Holmes, NYM vs. MIA ($8,500)
Holmes hasn't worked five innings in either of his two starts as he converts from a prior relief role, but he's fanned 10 across 9.1 frames, giving him potential. That's amplified by the matchup against a light-hitting Marlins lineup we'll likely target on most nights. Miami is currently striking out at a massive 27.5 percent rate against righties with a weak .095 ISO and 70 wRC+. The wind is a concern, but Holmes is a groundball guy, sitting at 67.9 percent to date, and he hasn't been under 60 percent since his 2018 rookie season.
Landen Roupp, SF vs. CIN ($7,300)
Roupp lands here simply because this column usually suggests three arms, including a paydown. Personally, I'm not interested in anyone cheaper than Holmes and we can target bats freely against all of those arms. We've got outbound winds in San Francisco, not helping Roupp's cause, but he managed to miss a ton of bats in his first start (eight in four innings), so he's got the potential to provide a fair return against a Reds offense that sits with a 23.6 percent K rate and a 79 wRC+ off righties.
Top Targets
If wind truly is the major factor in New York as it appears, building around Juan Soto ($4,200) and/or Pete Alonso ($3,900) and Francisco Lindor ($3,600) is the correct path. They're likely too pricey to consider a stack however. Marlins starter Connor Gillispie had a 57.9 percent fly ball rate last season, suggesting at least one big fly is incoming. Soto and Lindor have hit safely in five straight, and we know the power history Alonso possesses.
We're likely going to be interested in both sides of the Orioles - Diamondbacks game with suspect arms on the bump. Arizona doesn't present with obvious middle-tier options, so Corbin Carroll ($3,800) seems like a set it and forget it option. Baltimore starter Charlie Morton has allowed nine runs and 13 hits across 8.1 innings.
Bargain Bats
The Cubs are white hot up and down their lineup, and are priced up as such, making it difficult to stack or even get multiple shares Tuesday against soft-tossing Patrick Corbin, but it's likely a necessary evil. The entire roster is 52-for-148 (.351) off Corbin, so take your pick to round out your build. Nico Hoerner ($3,100) offers position flexibility and a reasonable price, while being 5-of-12 off Corbin. Justin Turner ($2,700) is 17-for-45, should he feature in the lineup.
Tampa isn't a lineup that's feared, but neither is Angels' starter Kyle Hendricks, so we can get some cheap pieces to an offense that lacks power but feeds off itself. Yandy Diaz ($2,700) and Junior Caminero ($2,800) are off to slow starts, making for nice bargains at likely low roster percentages with potential.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): Gunnar Henderson ($3,700), Adley Rutschman ($3,400), Jackson Holliday ($2,800)
Henderson's injured and slow start makes this a bit of a bargain, and including Holliday helps budget the balance, gives us three lefties that we can pair for a slightly unconventional 9-1-2 lineup stack. Kelly was shelled for nine runs in his last start, skewing his early season numbers, but he's currently allowing a .494 wOBA and 1.187 OPS to lefties. Ryan O'Hearn ($2,600) is also in play here, and he homered Monday.
Rangers vs. Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Adolis Garcia ($3,600), Wyatt Langford ($3,400), Marcus Semien ($3,200)
The Rangers come with a meager 3.6 run expectancy, but I'm not buying that. We expect the Cubs to tee off on Corbin, and I'm banking on the Rangers doing the same to Taillon to stay competitive. We've reportedly got right to left winds, so if the ball is carrying to left, we'll target some pull power from right-handed Ranger options atop the order. Splits aren't overly worth noting through two starts, but Taillon is allowing a .604 wOBA and 1.444 OPS to same-handed bats to date. That obviously regresses over time, but not if the wind plays a factor Tuesday.
