Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Cease finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young in 2022 after he posted a 2.20 ERA in 32 starts, but he stumbled to a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 214:79 K:BB over 177 innings last season. Some regression wasn't surprising since the elite campaign had some underwhelming peripherals, but much like the White Sox in general, his fall in 2023 was steeper than anticipated. The underlying numbers flipped in the opposite direction, with a 3.72 FIP indicating he had some poor luck. Cease's strikeout rate dropped over three points to 27.3 percent, though he improved his walk rate slightly to 10.1 percent. A .330 BABIP and 41.5 percent hard-hit rate were both career worsts, the former of which was certainly affected by Chicago's horrid defense (minus-59 DRS). His true self likely falls somewhere in between the results of the past two seasons, making him somewhat of a volatile option for fantasy managers in 2024, though his strikeout floor is strong. Cease has also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors over the past year, and a move elsewhere would likely only improve his immediate outlook. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#104
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the White Sox in January of 2024. Traded to the Padres in March of 2024.
Confirmed for Game 4
PSan Diego Padres
October 8, 2024
Cease will start Wednesday in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
Cease had a hard time keeping the Dodgers' bats quiet during a loss in Game 1 on Saturday, giving up five earned runs on six hits and two walks over just 3.1 innings. The 28-year-old righty had better luck against Los Angeles during the regular season, turning in a 3.37 ERA across 10.2 frames, so a bounce-back performance Wednesday isn't out of the question.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
83
How many pitches does Dylan Cease generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dylan Cease generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .234 1137 286 107 237 48 9 30
Since 2022vs Right .194 1156 379 115 198 43 3 23
2024vs Left .212 373 97 33 71 20 0 11
2024vs Right .189 389 127 32 66 14 1 7
2023vs Left .268 397 91 30 96 16 7 13
2023vs Right .230 387 123 49 76 16 2 6
2022vs Left .219 367 98 44 70 12 2 6
2022vs Right .163 380 129 34 56 13 0 10
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-16%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.16 1.15 287.2 15 18 0 10.7 3.4 0.8
Since 2022Away 3.67 1.24 262.2 20 10 0 11.1 3.9 0.9
2024Home 3.03 1.01 86.0 6 7 0 10.8 2.4 0.8
2024Away 3.83 1.11 103.1 8 4 0 10.5 3.7 0.9
2023Home 4.20 1.44 94.1 3 7 0 9.9 4.6 0.8
2023Away 5.01 1.39 82.2 4 2 0 12.0 3.4 1.2
2022Home 2.35 1.02 107.1 6 4 0 11.2 3.2 0.8
2022Away 2.00 1.24 76.2 8 4 0 10.9 4.7 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dylan Cease compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.45
 
K/9
10.6
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
96.9 mph
 
ERA
3.47
 
WHIP
1.07
 
BABIP
.277
 
GB/FB
1.07
 
Left On Base
69.0%
 
Exit Velocity
82.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2648 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.7%
 
Swinging Strike
15.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Cease followed up 2021's breakthrough campaign with an even better season, finishing a distant second to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting. Cease started 32 games for the second straight season, finishing with a career-high 184 innings. It wasn't by much, but Cease's K% ticked down while his BB% inched up. A .260 BABIP and 82.3% LOB mark resulted in a 2.20 ERA, over a run below the associated 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA. Cease is being drafted ahead of starters with similar or better skills, but with a longer track record. If he can lower his 10% walk rate, Cease could be one of the best pitchers in the league. There is a pathway as Cease uses his fastball 47% of the time but throws it for a strike at a low 62% rate. Cease is a prime example of how pitchers can be both lucky and good. Dreaming of a lower walk rate is tempting, but the regression monster is looming with nightmare intentions.
Cease truthers were rewarded with the breakthrough season, but let's pump the fantasy ace brakes just a tad. The righthander made 32 starts and his 3.96 ERA was pegged a little lower by the estimators. The long-expected spike in strikeouts manifested, keyed by a slider with a 22.4% swinging strike rate. The yellow flags are a high walk rate and a flyball lean. The latter isn't necessarily an issue, but it can be when combined with excess free passes and a homer-friendly home venue. To be fair, Cease's BB% dropped to 9.6%, but that was still the second highest among qualified starters, resulting in averaging just 5.2 innings per start, the lowest among qualified starters. Youth is Cease's ally as he's entering his age-26 season. He may improve his control even more but paying for it is a risk. The upside is indeed elite, but there's also a chance Cease is a ratio buzzkill.
The unique circumstances surrounding the 2020 campaign weren't conducive for young arms to exhibit growth. Still, Cease's season was a big disappointment. His skills fell back across the board; he fanned fewer and walked more while allowing harder contact. Cease's 4.01 ERA was spared further harm by a .238 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%, both touched by Lady Luck, with a 5.87 xFIP and 5.86 SIERA more indicative of his true skill level. Command and control are Cease's primary issues. His pitch mix remained close to 2019, but he traded a few curves for sliders, his most effective offering. Last year, the right-hander threw his fastball for a strike just 61% of the time. Until he can locate his four-seamer better, he's just a guy with velocity. Entering his age-25 season, Cease is still young enough to prove he's more. However, other than youth and the reading on the radar gun, there's little reason for optimism.
There's hope that Cease's command will come along, but right now, it's lacking. STATS LLC's new Command+ metric, which attempts to judge a pitcher's intent on each throw, had Cease's command at 88 in his debut season (100 is average). His Zone% was 39.4, per FanGraphs, and Cease battled walk (10.7%) and home run (1.85 HR/9) issues during his time in the majors. The free passes were nothing new, as Cease hasn't had a BB rate below 10% at any stop. The good news is that his raw stuff is excellent. With a fastball that averages north of 96 mph, a plus breaking ball and a potential plus changeup, Cease is able to miss bats at a well-above-average clip (24.9 K%, 11.0 SwStr%). There's upside here if he ever figures out how to put the ball where he wants it. In the meantime, Cease should be viewed as a streamer, one with more favorable matchups than most given the weakness of his division.
Blessed with special arm speed, Cease has had a high-leverage reliever floor (with reasonable health) since entering pro ball, but in 2018 he made massive strides to show that his future may be atop a rotation. He tallied over 100 innings (124) for the first time, notched a career-best 3.6 BB/9 and improved his secondary pitches. His mid-90s fastball touches 98 mph and was more of a worm killer last year (1.14 GO/AO) than in 2017 (0.88 GO/AO). Cease's curveball is his second-best pitch -- a potentially plus offering -- and his changeup emerged as a viable third pitch, thanks largely to the strength of his fastball. His command may never be better than fringe average, but with his stuff, it doesn't need to be. The most impressive aspect of Cease's season was that he improved after his promotion to Double-A, posting career bests in FIP (1.72), WHIP (0.99) and K-BB% (27.7). He should open at Triple-A and could make his big-league debut this summer.
Cease is entering his age-22 season, has never pitched above Low-A and has never logged more than 93.1 innings in a season. Yet, his stuff is some of the filthiest in the minors. The 6-foot-2 righty sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits with his fastball. He also throws a curveball that can look like a monster putaway pitch when it's on. His changeup is a distant third pitch, but that's hardly the biggest knock on his chances of making it as a starter. He has been coddled ever since the Cubs drafted him in the sixth round in 2014. Cease was the secondary piece the White Sox received when they sent Jose Quintana across town, and he had to be shut down at the end of the season with shoulder fatigue. While he made significant strides with his command and control last season, that area of his game is still a weakness. His fragility and command issues point to a future as an impactful late-inning arm, but even that outcome requires patience.
The minor leagues are lighter on high probability impact talent than they have been in recent years, so this may be a good time to gamble on a player with extreme upside and extreme risk. Cease fits the bill. He has the potential for two monster pitches, yet his fringe-average changeup, below-average control and significant durability concerns should scare off most risk-averse owners. Prospect aficionados are aware of his fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can touch 101 mph with some armside run. He also features a potentially plus curveball that can be devastating when hitters sit on his heater. However, his to-do list for 2017 is long and arduous. Atop that list is improving his command and control after walking 13.7 percent of short-season batters. Cease, who underwent Tommy John surgery after the Cubs drafted him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, also needs to build up his workload and show more feel for his changeup. His potential outcomes range from frontline starter to high-leverage reliever. This is a very exciting young arm.
A sixth-round pick in 2014, Cease made his pro debut last year for the rookie-level Cubs after missing 2014 following Tommy John surgery. With 25 strikeouts and a .145 BAA in 24 innings, he holds some promise. However, he walked 16 and hit two more, so he has a long way to go. He's still just 20 though, so he has time and the Cubs will be patient with him. Cease has a very high ceiling (he can touch 100 mph), but he's a risk given his prior elbow problems and control issues. However, that frontline upside makes him someone worth gambling on in dynasty leagues that roster 200 prospects. He may not make it to a full-season league in 2016, but the training wheels should come off in 2017, at which point he could start cruising up the organizational ladder.
More Fantasy News
Game 4 on short rest possible
PSan Diego Padres
October 7, 2024
Padres manager Mike Shildt on Monday didn't dismiss the possibility of Cease starting Wednesday in Game 4 of the NLDS versus the Dodgers on short rest, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Getting NLDS Game 1 start
PSan Diego Padres
October 3, 2024
Cease will start Saturday in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Allows three runs in no-decision
PSan Diego Padres
September 26, 2024
Cease did not factor into the decision in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates Houston
PSan Diego Padres
September 18, 2024
Cease (14-11) picked up the win Wednesday against the Astros, allowing two hits and no walks with five strikeouts across 8.1 scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out 10 in win
PSan Diego Padres
September 13, 2024
Cease (13-11) allowed four hits and two walks while striking out 10 over six shutout innings to earn the win Friday over the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Named NL's best for July
PSan Diego Padres
August 6, 2024
Cease was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for July on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander surrendered six runs over 3.2 innings July 2 at Texas, but he allowed just four earned runs in his final five starts of the month and threw a no-hitter against the Nationals during that stretch. Cease had a 2.35 ERA and 49:13 K:BB over 38.1 innings during July, and he's having a career year in his first season in San Diego with a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 23 starts.
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