This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An eight-game main slate is what we have to sort through Saturday afternoon, with a compact window of start times between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Unlike Friday where pitching was plentiful, there's only one arm priced in five-figures. Somewhat surprisingly given the lack of arm talent, only Cincinnati-Milwaukee comes with a double-digit run total. Seattle is the only team without a listed pitcher, giving us 15 to choose from and against here.
Pitching
Eury Perez, MIA vs. OAK ($9,300) - In trying to keep this column somewhat brief, I'm going to bypass both Andrew Heaney and MacKenzie Gore in favor of Perez simply due to the lower price, but both have plus matchups against offenses that fan more than 25 percent of the time off lefties. They are very nice options. But Perez gets the woeful A's, in his cavernous home park, coming off of a game where they were shut out and struck out 15 times. Oakland ranks last against righties with a .278 wOBA and 79 wRC+ while fanning 26.5 percent of the time. Perez hasn't shown the upside we think he's capable of thus far, and hasn't made it more than five innings to date, so there's a chance we're left without upside here. But this matchup sets up for a breakout start.
Daniel Lynch, KC vs. COL ($7,700) - Lynch looks like a nice bargain Saturday given form and matchup. He was able to toss 95 pitches in his season debut, fanning six across 5.1 frames. He gets a Rockies offense outside of their home park that struggles against lefties, posting just a .290 wOBA and paltry 65 wRC+ while striking out 25.5 percent of the time. A repeat of his last outing is more than possible, which would be a sound 3.6x return, and there doesn't appear to be huge risk in this matchup for the reduced price tag.
Luis Medina, OAK at MIA ($6,600) - Medina is surprisingly becoming a mainstay when I write this column. His 6.83 ERA is ugly, but it comes with a more palatable 4.47 xFIP. His 7.8 Ks per nine isn't elite either, but it's cooked into this low price. The appeal to Medina is the A's let him throw regardless of damage, having gone at least five innings in all five of his starts. The Marlins rank 25th off righties with a .298 wOBA, below average 88 wRC+. They strike out at a 23.4 percent clip, and don't walk (7.6 percent), which has been one of Medina's issues. He's only returned 4x this price once, but 3x three times. That's serviceable while freeing up ample budget for offensive spending.
Top Targets
Truth be told, I don't hate Pirates starter Luis Ortiz over Medina as the slate's lowest-priced pitcher, but the matchup for Ortiz isn't as soft. The easy approach is to target Cardinal bats off him because of that low price, so Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) looks like a terrific anchor Saturday. He comes with a team-best .406 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .247 ISO off righties.
Jose Altuve's ($3,800) price has risen to pre-injury levels, and while he's a known lefty masher, this could be a spot to fade that trend in favor of teammate Yordan Alvarez ($4,100), the slate's highest-priced bat but still somewhat reduced from where it normally sits on larger slates. Angels' starter Patrick Sandoval is allowing a .390 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .266 wOBA to opposite-handed bats, and Alvarez counters with a team-best (amongst regulars) .414 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .338 ISO off same-handed arms.
Bargain Bats
The high total and friendly ballpark conditions, paired with no bat over $3,400, makes the Reds and Brewers lineups easy to target a game stack. Cincinnati will throw Graham Ashcraft, who pitches to far too much contact. He's labored at home, posting a 6.31 ERA and 5.19 FIP, and it's same-handed bats that have been is problem, allowing a .496 wOBA and 1.219 OPS. Owen Miller ($3,000) has been Milwaukee's best off righties with a .381 wOBA and 141 wRC+ and offers position flexibility. Stats don't back the rest of the Brew Crew, which could make them a nice low-used stackable offense. William Contreras ($2,900) would be a favored GPP option with his power potential.
Brewers' starter Colin Rea doesn't have bad splits, but we're expecting both lineups to produce, making a few Red bats easy choices. TJ Friedl ($2,800) has the best splits off righties, but his health and availabilty remain in question. As a result, the heart of the Reds order makes sense to plug and play into slots where you may have lineup holes. Matt McLain ($3,400), Jonathan India ($3,300) and Jake Fraley ($3,200) all work based on positional needs.
Stack to Consdier
Royals vs. Austin Gomber: Bobby Witt ($3,800), Salvador Perez ($3,600), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000)
Gomber comes into Saturday with a 7.00 ERA and 6.13 FIP, having allowed at least three runs in four straight starts and 17 in total. He's been rocked harder by same-handed bats, allowing a .495 wOBA and 1.179 OPS to lefties on the road, putting Pasquantino in a very nice spot despite some less than ideal numbers from him off same-handed arms. Witt on the other hand leads the Royals with a .404 wOBA, 158 wRC+, .333 ISO and reasonable 39.5 percent hard-hit rate off lefties. Perez rounds us out here with another heart of the order thumper. His splits off lefties are dreadful to date with just a .285 wOBA, but that's not in line with his career norms. The soft matchup gives him an opportunity to work on correcting that.
