This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A larger than usual 10-game main slate awaits Saturday evening, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. All 20 starters are listed, and six come in with five-digit price tags with four more in the 9k tier. That represents 50 percent of our options, so paying up seems to be a requirement. That's curiously not fully supported by a scan of run lines. Of course, we've got double-digit run expectancy in Denver, but only Astros - Royals and Marlins - Giants come with a slate low 7.5 run total, while four games sit at a relatively elevated 9.0.
We look to have double-digit outbound winds in Minnesota, with the velocity cut in half but favorable in Philadelphia, Anaheim and San Francisco.
Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA at LAA ($10,800): The unfortunate nature of writing this column on consecutive days is we've got the same matchups, similar targets and perhaps some unoriginal thoughts. I targeted George Kirby in this matchup unsuccessfully. The positve matchup remains (87 wRC+, 23.7 percent K rate), but the difference is Woo is in far better form than Kirby. He's earned five straight quality starts, including matchups against the Dodgers and Phillies, striking out 31 across 34 innings. The Angels did get to him in a matchup in July, so it's not without risk, but it's the clear soft spot for the top-priced options.
Yusei Kikuchi, HOU vs. KC ($9,900): This was a tough call for me at the 9k tier, but I'll cautiously back Kikuchi, something I rarely if ever do, over Cody Bradford. Bradford seemingly has the innings upside with three straight quality starts while Kikuchi hasn't lasted six innings since July 9. But the matchup, statistically, favors Kikuchi. Kansas City doesn't hit lefties well with just a .311 wOBA and 97 wRC+. The come with the slate's lowest expected run total at 3.4, and lost major run production from Vinnie Pasquantino Thursday. Only Salvador Perez has faced Kikuchi more than seven times, but the Royals are collectively just 8-for-48 (.167) with a .570 OPS off him, striking out at a 31.4 percent rate, nearly double their low 17.9 percent mark on the year off southpaws.
Jose Quintana, NYM at CWS ($7,100): This appears to be a necessary evil we have to consider with so many high-priced options. Rarely do we get a pitcher of any caliber priced this low against the White Sox, who unsurprisingly are the worst in the league off lefties with a .272 wOBA, 73 wRC+ and 24.3 percent K rate. Of course, there's a reason Quintana is priced this low. He's off 6.1 shutout innings against San Diego, but he didn't strike anyone out, resulting in just 23 fantasy points. His four starts prior, he allowed 19 runs. He's not going to have the upside to combat the top arms, but the savings and the floor based on matchup should be enough to help field a more competitive offensive build.
Top Targets
I'll go right back to the well with Francisco Lindor ($3,800) Saturday. He earned double-digit fantasy points again Friday, extending his hitting streak to 10 games, and the Mets have the slate's second highest run expectancy at 6.0 even if Davis Martin doesn't have targetable splits.
We're going to have to target stars against star/high priced pitching to a certain degree, and Yordan Alvarez ($3,800) fits the bill without being overpriced. He's on a seven-game hitting streak where he has 11 total hits, has a team-leading .425 wOBA, 183 wRC+ and .221 ISO off lefties, and is 6-for-11 (.545) with a 1.402 OPS off Royals' starter Cole Ragans.
Not loving the rising price for Matt Olson ($3,600), but it's justified as he's locked in (finally). He's riding a seven-game hitting steak where he's 12-for-29 (.414) with 10 runs, 13 RBI, six doubles and four homers. He's a reasonable 7-for-29 (.241) off Phillies starter Zack Wheeler with two homers.
Bargain Bats
Twins' starter Zebby Matthews has just 15.0 innings under his belt, and has been better at home in that limited sample, with the exception of a .380 wOBA allowed to lefties. With winds blowing out, I'm interested in some Blue Jay pieces. Daulton Varsho ($3,200) and Spencer Horwitz ($3,100) are the obvious choices, but for more value, consider Will Wagner ($2,700) and/or Joey Loperfido ($2,600).
The Dodgers' profile similarly to the Phillies, who I'll get to below, in they have heavy exposure to Diamondbacks' starter Merrill Kelly, as their lineup is hitting .303 with a .860 OPS. From a value standpoint, Gavin Lux ($2,800) is 7-for-14, while Chris Taylor ($2,200), should he be in the lineup, is 10-for-32 (.313). Max Muncy ($3,500) is 14-for-37 (.378) and Will Smith ($3,000) is 11-for-34 (.324) if money is less of a concery.
Julio Rodriguez ($3,100) has homered in consecutive games and is 3-for-5 with a homer off Angels' starter Tyler Anderson.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Adley Rutschman ($3,600), Colton Cowser ($3,500), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,300)
It doesn't take hard-hitting analysis to stack in Coors Field, but the Orioles secondary pieces aren't getting the ballpark price boost, so this is surprisingly doable. Further, Gunnar Henderson is in a funk, so we don't have to pay up for him but can seemingly get production from those around hitting around him. Feltner is allowing a .395 wOBA and .930 OPS to lefties at home, so we can expect Baltimore to load their lineup with opposite-handed bats, which is exactly what this stack highlights. O'Hearn and Rutschman both didn't start last night, lending confidence to them doing so Saturday, while Cowser gives us a leadoff option.
Phillies vs. Max Fried (Braves): Trea Turner ($3,600), Nick Castellanos ($3,300), J.T. Realmuto ($3,000)
Fried hasn't been terrific in five starts since returning from the IL, allowing 15 runs across 25.2 innings. If you're an optimist for Fried, you can point out the scoring has decreased each game, going 5-4-3-2-1, if you're a pessimist, you can point out the ample BvP numbers here, and the Phillies have hit him well. The roster overall is hitting .310 with a .868 OPS, homering 11 times in 258 at bats. This will be Fried's fourth start against this lineup this season, and he's allowed 17 hits and 10 runs across 13.2 innings. We'll need to track Alec Bohm's availability, as it will impact the batting order. And this stack is heavily BvP based. But the trio is a collective 44-for-110 (.400) with eight home runs. Bryson Stott is the exception to the Phillie regulars against Fried, so you can mix and match their other top half bats as necessary to afford a stack here.
