This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A large 13-game slate is for our breakdown Friday evening. Five arms sit at five-figures, with six more in the 9k tier, coinciding with seven games having a run total of eight or less. Only San Diego at Colorado comes with a 10+ run total, where the wind will be blowing out, making it for an obvious game to grab shares of.
Pitching
Marcus Stroman, CHC at SF ($10,200): I'm going to try to target matchups and form with Stroman over some of the bigger names in the upper price tier in hopes we get lower usage. The wind looks to be blowing out in San Francisco, but Stroman shouldn't be impacted greatly there thanks to his 59.9 percent ground ball rate. His 7.8 Ks per nine should play up against a Giants offense that fans 25.7 percent of the time against righties. Stroman hasn't allowed a run in his last 15.0 innings, and has earned quality starts in four straight, and in 11 of his 13 starts overall.
Tyler Wells, BAL vs. KC ($9,700): The Royals are targetable nightly thanks to a meager .288 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and 24.9 percent K rate off righties. That should allow Wells to continue to flourish. He's posted 40 FDP or better in consecutive starts and in three of five, fanning at least seven in all five of those outings. We'll need to monitor rain in Baltimore, and Wells has been vulnerable to homers, and while that's not Kansas City's forte, they did get him for four runs in six innings back on May 2. His 3.29 ERA does come with a 4.56 xFIP, so there is some risk.
AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL vs. WAS ($7,200): It's been a meteoric rise for the 20-year old, who began his season at High-A. It's fair to question how long the Brave will allow him to work, and his nerves in his first big league start, but Smith-Shawver has been brilliant every time out, allowing just four runs across 35.1 total innings, striking out 48 hitters. Washington is pesky, but sit with just a .302 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and .121 ISO off righties. Walks have been an issue for Smith-Shawver, but he's in a great spot to limit damage and work five or better frames as a result.
Top Targets
As noted in the intro, San Diego bats are the clear and obvious target against Austin Gomber, who is allowing an 8.64 ERA and 6.55 FIP at home, with righties posting a .431 wOBA and 1.022 OPS off him. That makes Fernando Tatis ($4,500) a clear and easy anchor. He's boasting a .458 wOBA, 195 wRC+ and .425 ISO off lefties to date. It can't stack up any better.
Cincinnati's offense is clicking, and simply a fun watch, making me want to invest there most nights. They got Cards' started Jordan Montgomery for seven hits and four runs in late May. Matt McLain ($3,700) is my preferred option Friday. He went 2-for-5 in that previous meeting, has multiple hits in five of his last six, and boasts a .411 wOBA, 154 wRC+ and .222 ISO off lefties to date.
Philadelphia's Ranger Suarez has pitched far better over his last two starts and appears to be rounding into form. Still, the Dodgers hit lefties well and can't be ignored as a result. Any of Will Smith ($3,900), Mookie Betts ($4,300) or Freddie Freeman ($4,400) are nice building blocks, with Betts' .419 wOBA being the lowest of the three.
Bargain Bats
Manny Machado ($3,300) hasn't homered since May 9, so it's feasible his wrist is still an issue. But at this price point, given the plus matchup already discussed, his upside can't be ignored. It also makes the Padres too stackable for a Coors Field game, which coud sink us if we go too far in and they scuffle. Still, he has multiple hits in two of his last three, and sits with a .398 wOBA and 156 wRC+ off lefties.
Milwaukee is in a postive spot against a lefty opener, likely followed by Luis Medina and his 1.64 WHIP, but they don't pop as a stackable offense. Joey Wiemer ($2,900) is riding a nine-game hitting streak, posting double-digit fantasy points six times, seemingly making him a safe value with ample upside.
The Braves pounded out 19 hits off Justin Verlander and the Mets last night and despite their strikeout tendencies are an offense with nightly appeal. Austin Riley ($3,100) is locked in right now, driving the ball the opposite way in route to 10 hits and seven runs in his last four outings. Ozzie Albies ($2,900) meanwhile is a less obvious option, as he's someone we like far better when facing a lefty, but he's homered in three of his last four, collecting hits in each.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Michael Grove: Bryce Harper ($3,500), Nick Castellanos ($3,500), Kyle Schwarber ($3,000)
The price point on the Phillie bats are what appeals most here, as the top options are so affordable. Grove has an 8.14 ERA, though "just" a 4.90 FIP. He's labored on the road, and struggles against lefties, allowing a .490 wOBA and 1.159 OPS, making Harper and his .453 wOBA, 187 OPS and .209 ISO a clear choice and stand alone option. Grove's 1.7 HR per nine paired with his struggles against lefties put Schwarber in play, even if it's just seeking the power as he offers next to nothing else. Castellanos seemingly offers stability. His .362 wOBA off righties isn't elite, but it's second-best amongst Philadelphia regulars, and he's hit safely in six of eight, five times collecting multiple knocks.
Pirates vs. Tylor Megill: Bryan Reynolds ($3,500), Andrew McCutchen ($3,200), Tucupita Marcano ($2,400)
The Mets are in a bad way right now off a sweep in Atlanta. Their starters didn't last more than 5.2 innings in any game there, and without an off day, the bullpen is taxed. Megill has lasted six innings just once in his last 10 starts, which seems to set the Pirates up for success against him and/or the pen. Further, he's labored on the road with a 6.08 ERA and 6.13 FIP, allowing a .411 wOBA and .971 OPS to righties and .397/.895 to lefties. Reynolds makes for a nice anchor/stand alone play thanks to his .385 wOBA and 143 wRC+ off righties. McCutchen we trust for solid at bats, and his .362 wOBA isn't awful, coming with a 126 wRC+. Marcano offers some value, likely hitting atop the order, giving us an ideal 1-2-3 stack on the cheap. He's hit safely in four of six, and sports a .370 wOBA and 133 wRC+ off righties.
