This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Nine games are here for us to digest Saturday afternoon, with what's seemingly becoming a regular compact window, as all games start between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Only two games have a run total of 9.5 or greater, with Seattle-Chicago being our low point at 7.5. As such, there seems to be expected scoring parity across the slate. Toronto doesn't currently have a listed pitcher within FanDuel, giving us 17 arms to sort through. Four of those are priced in five-figures with three more coming in at $9,000 or more. Weather looks relatively clear, with Kansas City being our only potential trouble spot.
Pitching
Mitch Keller, PIT at MIL ($10,200): I liked Keller yesterday, when FanDuel had him incorrectly listed as the starter, and nothing has changed now that we are certain he'll be throwing. Milwaukee has just a .151 ISO and 90 wRC+ off righties, fanning at a 24.6 percent clip. Keller has fanned seven or more in eight of his last nine, averages 11.9 per nine on the road, and his 4.10 ERA should regress as it comes with a 2.98 xFIP.
Braxton Garrett, MIA at WAS ($8,900): Washington's splits against lefties are actually competent, ranking ninth in the league with a .336 wOBA, above average 109 wRC+ and only a 17.7 percent strikeout rate. That could cap Garrett's upside, but he certainly feels safe. He's fanning 9.8 per nine, his 4.10 ERA is higher than his 3.06 xFIP, and he induces ground balls at a 47.8 percent clip. He isn't efficient, having not gone six innings just one time all season, and if the strikeouts aren't there, which the stats suggest they won't be, Garrett won't be a slate breaker. But with the Nats low 29.2 percent hard hit rate, Garrett figures to limit damage and earn a stable amount of fantasy points.
Cristopher Sanchez, PHI at OAK ($7,100): There aren't great paydown options Saturday, so when in doubt, default to targeting against the A's offense, who despite their recent run of wins, remain amongst the league's worst. They struck out 10 times Friday evening, mustering just one run, and come in with a .305 wOBA, 98 wRC+, .136 ISO and 22.1 percent strikeout rate. Sanchez' Triple-A numbers aren't great, and the Rockies, who really struggle off lefties, got him for three runs in 4.1 innings in his only major league outing. It's certainly difficult to find a path to a 4x return, but the matchup suggests he likely won't implode, giving us a path towards 20 FDP with the opportunity to spend freely on offense.
Top Targets
The same logic in targeting arms against Oakland bats applies in reverse. A's starter James Kaprielian has a 6.68 home ERA and 5.81 xFIP, allowing lefties to produce a 1.006 OPS and .426 wOBA. That makes Bryce Harper ($3,700) the obvious building block for any lineup Saturday. His power continues to be missing, but that's seemingly cooked into the price. Harper has reached safely in nine straight.
Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) didn't homer Friday, but he put together his eighth-straight game with double-digit fantasy points. Facing Mike Mayers, who is allowing a .429 wOBA and .982 OPS to lefties, I see no reason why Ohtani won't again anchor lineups Saturday.
Bargain Bats
Adam Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in all but one start to date, and at least eight hits in each of his last four starts. Lefties are crushing him for a .442 wOBA and 1.047 OPS. Brandon Nimmo ($3,100) is the best option statistically with a .346 wOBA and 123 wRC+. Call it a hunch because his numbers are woeful as a left-handed hitter, but Francisco Lindor ($3,100) could outperform his price.
The Braves have been all over the Rockies through the first two games of this series, scoring 16 runs and launching four homers. Colorado starter Connor Seabold has a 4.44 road ERA and 4.51 xFIP, so I wouldn't expect Saturday to be any different. He's allowing a .442 wOBA and 1.037 OPS to righties. If paying up for Ronald Acuna ($4,600) or Sean Murphy ($3,700) isn't an option, Atlanta offers pay down options in Austin Riley ($3,000), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000) and Orlando Arcia ($2,900) that are poised to produce here.
Stacks to Consider
Marlins vs. Jake Irvin: Jorge Soler ($3,500), Luis Arraez ($2,900), Jesus Sanchez ($2,700)
It's easy and groupthink to target against the slate's cheapest pitcher, but that doesn't make it incorrect, especially with how low the price point is on the Marlins top of the order bats. Irvin has a 7.30 ERA at home, backed up by a 6.90 xFIP. It's lefties that have caused him most of the problems, allowing a .393 wOBA and 10 homers to just 54 batters faced. Arraez isn't going to give us the pop, but he's in a plus spot for a multi-hit afternoon. Sanchez gives us another lefty to target here, and he does have some pop in his bat to go with his 129 wRC+, second amongst Marlin regulars. Soler is the default third piece. He's far better off lefties, but 11 of his 20 long balls have come off right-handed arms. It's a higher price than I like to simply chase power, but this stack needs that upside to come through in a big way.
Reds vs. Brandon Bielak: Elly De La Cruz ($4,000), Matt McLain ($3,700), TJ Friedl ($2,900)
Bad news first, Bielak has been far better at home, so much so to suggest we should be targeting him on the bump. But the splits are so dramatic, you have to think they'll converge at some point. He's allowing a .406 wOBA overall to lefties and .383 to righties, opening up the entire Reds lineup if interested. This trio seems to offer a nice mix. Friedl is on the cheaper side and a likely leadoff option, De La Cruz has the upside we need in a run-producing spot, and McLain the on base stability.
