This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An 11-game slate awaits Friday evening. It comes with five pitchers priced in five-figures and five more priced in the $9,000 tier, suggesting we've got ample options. But there aren't any games with a run total listed under 8.0, with two coming in at 10.0 runs and five more at 9.0. The top arms are seemingly not in great form, and facing difficult matchups, making for difficult decisions. Aaron Nola ($9,900) is going to be very popular against Kansas City, but he's not been himself seemingly all year. Yu Darvish ($9,800) has been brilliant in three of his last four and I think makes for an interesting GPP pivot, but the matchup is too volatile to highlight in this column.
Weather could be another factor when considering fading Nola, as rain is possible in the northeast. Rain may also impact Astros at Yankees and Blue Jays at Red Sox, so while I have interet in those games offensively, we'll need to have contengency plans.
Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA at LAA ($10,700): With matchups having me question the potential for 40 FDP results from most of the top arms, if we're going up, we may as well go all the way up. Castillo has hit that benchmark in three straight outings and five of his last seven. He's faced the Angels twice already, allowing just eight hits and three runs across 11.2 innings, striking out 16 while allowing a .182 wOBA. It doesn't appear as though Shohei Ohtani will need to miss time at the plate, but in the event he gets a day, it only makes Castillo that much more appealing. The Angels have a 24.2 percent K rate overall off righties.
Dean Kremer, BAL vs. NYM ($8,900): Since the trade deadline, the Mets have gone out and lost three straight to the Royals, scoring just two runs in their last two games. They've clearly thrown in the towel and are going through the motions. Kremer has been inconsistent, with four quality starts in his last seven outings, but allowing 15 runs in the other three. There isn't huge strikeout upside here, Kremer fans 8.3 per nine and the Mets strike out at a 20.9 percent clip, so we're banking on Kremer to shut down the Mets disinterested bats, which seems probable.
Alek Manoah, TOR at BOS ($7,200): Don't look now, but Manoah has fanned six in each of his last two outings. He's also walked seven, allowed seven hits and four runs across 9.2 innings. Things can certainly blow up here, and the Red Sox aren't a strikeout prone offense, so we're almost banking on Manoah limiting damage. And that just may be possible. He's been far better on the road with a 3.92 ERA and 4.41 FIP, allowing a .332 wOBA to lefties and a .257 wOBA to righties. Further, he's had success against Boston's lineup overall, allowing a .246 average and .645 wOBA, though with only a 17.5 percent K rate. Sure, there's risk, but perhaps Manoah is slightly turning a corner.
Top Targets
Luis Robert ($3,900) is a target every time he gets to face a lefty, as is the case Friday in Clevelan's Logan Allen. Robert is 5-for-9 off of him overall, and sits with a .421 wOBA, 174 wRC+ and .287 ISO off southpaws.
Yankees' starter Luis Severino is getting mashed by lefties, allowing a .449 wOBA and 1.068 OPS. Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) has a seven-game hitting streak, homering twice in that span and makes plenty of sense to build around. Kyle Tucker ($3,600) is in nearly similar form, and can make for a nice mini-stack in Yankee Stadium's favorable right field fence.
Bargain Bats
Jorge Soler ($3,100) profiles similarly to Robert above off lefties, with a robust .478 wOBA, 207 wRC+, .450 ISO and 52.5 percent hard hit rate. He's homered in two of his last four and is priced to where we can chase that power upside.
Who is worse, the Rockies offense or Adam Wainwright? In St. Louis, the Cardinals starter is allowing a .498 wOBA and 1.197 OPS to lefties. Ryan McMahon ($3,300) has a team best .381 wOBA, 125 wRC+ and .247 ISO off righties while collecting 12 hits in his last eight game. Nolan Jones ($3,000) and/or Jurickson Profar ($2,800) aren't in great form, but figure to hit in nice spots and offer more lefty options to round out lineups. It's not a stackable offense, but one that offers managers choices in a plus spot.
The Phillies lineup is cheap overall, so you can take any or multiple shots on them against Jordan Lyles here. Brandon Marsh ($2,700) is statistically their best off righties with a .377 wOBA ad .136 wRC+, and has shown the ability to put up big games of late, with three double-digit fantasy point outings in his last seven.
Boston always offers a plethora of lefties to target against right-handed pitching, so if you're not buying what I'm selling above with Manoah, having shares of this offense makes sense. Alex Verdugo ($3,000) has a seven-game hitting streak coming in to Friday and is 9-for-18 off Manoah, with a homer and a 1.134 OPS.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. David Peterson/bullpen: Ryan Mountcastle ($3,400), Adley Rutschman ($3,300), Austin Hays ($2,800)
Peterson hasn't thrown more than two innings since July 8, so we aren't targeting splits here as he's unlikely to go deep. Rather, the Mets are just going through the motions as they play out their post deadline season. The top of the Orioles lineup is priced far too favorably. Mountcastle is white hot, with 18 hits in his last 11 games, seemingly clear of his prior vertigo issues. Rutschman has multiple hits in three straight and four of five, and Hays is a third top of the order option that's not priced as such. He's broken out of an 0-for-19 slump with five hits in his last two games.
Cardinals vs. Chris Flexen: Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700), Lars Nootbaar ($3,500), Nolan Arenado ($3,400)
Flexen has somehow been worse outside of Coors Field, allowing a 10.69 ERA (8.33 FIP), a .460 wOBA and 1.069 OPS to lefties, and .501/1.193 to righties, which seemingly opens up the entire Cardinals lineup for stacking. Nootbaar is the surprising anchor/stand alone option for me. He's got a .371 wOBA and 137 wRC+ off righties, identical numbers to Goldschmidt, but Nootbaar is in better form with four multi-hit efforts in his last seven. Goldy isn't looking great at the moment, with just three hits in his last seven and only three homers and 10 RBI since the All Star Break. Arenado too isn't hot with a similar three hits in his last seven and two RBI in his last 10, so they aren't must use. But perhaps the cold streaks get us lower usage in whats an obvious spot for a breakout for both, which can only benefit Nootbaar hitting in front of them.
