Thursday's article was my best of the season, and I can't wait to provide some more picks here. While we have eight games making up this Monday card, the Boston Marathon game is early in the morning. That game will be omitted from this article, but we still have some great options to pick from. With that in mind, let's look into the arms!
Pitching
Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL vs. STL ($9,500)
Schwellenbach is coming off his worst start of the season, but he still has a 2.55 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. That shows how absurd his first four starts were, averaging 27 DraftKings points per game before that dud. We're willing to bet on a bounce-back performance because Schwellenbach has a 2.90 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate at home since his call-up. St. Louis has been a scary matchup this season, but this lineup is lackluster when you see guys like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado at the heart of it. That's why Schwellenbach is a -190 favorite in this game.
Robbie Ray, SF vs. MIL ($7,500)
This couldn't be a riskier pick, but something tells me that Ray will go off whenever he's pitching in San Francisco. It's simply one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball, and Ray will turn things around once he stops walking batters. Even with poor control, the lefty has scored at least 10 DK points in all four starts. He's also got 47 DK points across his last two home starts, and we can't overlook Milwaukee's terrible splits. They have a .282 OBP and .582 OPS against lefties this year, while posting a 23 percent K rate. Ray has a 40-point upside with his elite strikeout stuff, and you simply won't find that from many pitchers in this price range.
Top Targets
Pete Alonso, NYM ($5,600) vs. Aaron Nola
It feels bizarre to recommend a hitter against Nola, but the Phillies' ace is struggling mightily right now. The righty is 0-4 through four starts, generating a 6.65 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. That's horrifying since he surrendered six runs to the Mets in their most recent matchup. Alonso has been NY's best hitter this season, registering a .487 OBP and 1.331 OPS across his last 18 outings. The BvP numbers against Nola are absurd too, with Alonso accumulating a .386 OBP, .731 SLG and 1.117 OPS in 57 plate appearances against him!
Spencer Torkelson, DET ($4,500) vs. Randy Vasquez
We've been waiting for this former top pick to break out for years, but it feels like we're finally there. Tork has been hitting cleanup for the Motor City Kitties, collecting a .391 OBP and 1.049 OPS so far this season. That hot start should have him above $5K, especially since he's homered in five of his last 11 outings. Vasquez has gotten off to a solid start, but this is one of the worst pitchers on this slate. The Padres pitcher has a 4.32 ERA and 1.48 WHIP since the start of last season.
Bargain Bats
Rhys Hoskins, MIL ($3,900) vs. Robbie Ray
While we did recommend Ray as a GPP pitcher, we can't overlook his control issues. He has the highest walk rate among all starters, and that's bad news against a disciplined bat like Hoskins. The slugger has a .345 career OBP while generating a .993 OPS across his last eight outings. The splits are what get us most excited, with Hoskins providing a .387 career OBP and .892 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SF ($3,200) vs. Quinn Priester
There's no doubt that Fitzgerald is volatile because of his strikeouts, but this guy has too much upside to be $3,200. We saw this shortstop post a .281 AVG and .859 OPS across his final 64 games last year while picking up 14 homers and 11 steals in that span. That's flirting with a 40-30 pace across a full season, and we can't overlook that since he has a 1.070 OPS across his last 11 outings. Priester is not a pitcher we're worried about either, providing a 5.74 career ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta vs. Cardinals (Erick Fedde): Austin Riley ($5,000), Matt Olson ($4,800), Marcell Ozuna ($4,700) and Michael Harris ($4,400)
Atlanta has really struggled this season, but this offense will eventually get going. A matchup with Fedde could kickstart that inevitable run, with the righty registering a 4.77 career ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That's also critical on this slate because there aren't many poor pitchers out there to exploit.
Let's kickstart our stack with Riley, who has a .969 OPS across his last 13 outings. As for Olson, this guy always approaches a .900 OPS whenever he faces a righty. Ozuna's BvP numbers are outstanding against Fedde, posting a .706 OBP and 1.956 OPS in 17 plate appearances against him. Harris is the cheap option of the bunch, establishing himself as a 20-20 threat in the heart of this lineup.
Phillies at Mets (Tylor Megill): Kyle Schwarber ($5,900), Bryce Harper ($5,400) and Max Kepler ($3,600)
It was challenging to pick a second pitcher to stack against, but Philly is always a solid option. This has been a top-three offense over the last three seasons, and they're always a threat against any pitcher. Megill isn't the worst arm out there, but his 4.39 career ERA and 1.39 WHIP are far from terrifying. He's also due for some negative regression, with his xERA sitting 2.09 runs higher than his actual ERA.
Schwarber has been moved down to the cleanup spot this season, sporting a .436 OBP and 1.044 OPS in an amazing start to the year. As for Harper, he has the platoon advantage against Megill while totaling a .906 OPS against righties over the last three years. Kepler is the sneaky option of this stack, compiling a .759 OPS against righties in that same span.
