This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the final Thursday of the MLB regular season, which means it is the last break for some MLB teams before they begin their final series of the 2023 campaign. Of course, some of them are heading to the playoffs, but that's an October thing. This Thursday is in September, and there are five games on the slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET or later. Here are my lineup recommendations. We're almost to the playoffs!
Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, MIA at NYM ($9,000): While Luzardo has been better at home than on the road in 2023, last season he had a 2.64 road ERA and 4.25 home ERA, so it may just be down to matchups and luck. Less related to matchups and luck is his 3.67 K/BB rate. The Mets are below average in runs scored, have a lot of lefties that can't handle a southpaw like Luzardo (.214 batting average allowed), and the typically fearsome Pete Alonso is much worse at home.
Chris Bassitt, TOR vs. NYY ($8,600): In his first season with the Blue Jays, Bassitt has enjoyed his new hometown. He's posted a 3.08 ERA in home starts and has only allowed 0.8 home runs per nine innings in Toronto. The Yankees are going to end up 24th or 25th in runs scored, with a .226 average as a team, which is quite bleak.
Top Target
If you like numbers in the thirties, Julio Rodriguez ($6,100) has 31 homers, 37 doubles and 37 stolen bases. If you are more of a century-mark person, he has 102 RBI and 101 runs scored. In his career, Seattle's star has an .848 OPS against lefties and an .851 OPS at home. Jordan Montgomery, a lefty, has been on fire for three starts, but he has a career 3.70 ERA in 139 starts, so I will believe in Rodriguez's bat.
Bargain Bat
While Jake Burger ($4,300) has added some unexpected batting average help since joining the Marlins, the power has pretty much always been there. He's also posted a .916 OPS against lefties in his career. David Peterson, a southpaw, has a career 4.61 ERA. Now, he tends to be much better at home, but he has a 4.89 ERA and has allowed seven homers over his last eight starts, and five of those have been at home.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Rockies (Chris Flexen): J.D. Martinez ($5,700), Max Muncy ($5,500), James Outman ($4,300)
The Rockies would be baseball's most anonymous organization if not for the fact they play home games at Coors Field, which offers great opportunity for opposing hitters and also DFS players. Since moving from the Mariners to the Rockies, Flexen has actually improved his ERA, but it has only dropped to 6.46. He was pitching awfully with Seattle, which means that his poor numbers are not just about Coors. That makes me somehow more confident in this stack.
Martinez has slugged .570 (which isn't even a career high!) and has 31 homers in 109 games. He also has a .942 OPS on the road. Though he is a righty, Flexen has allowed a .302 average to right-handers since 2021. Muncy has 36 homers, and the lefty has posted an .896 OPS versus righties. While he's been better at home, this is Coors Field, not, say, the Giants' or Padres' parks, which are less conducive to all-or-nothing sluggers. Outman has 23 homers and 15 stolen bases. In his career he has an .855 OPS against right-handers and an .840 OPS on the road as well.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees (Luke Weaver): Vladimir Guerrero ($4,800), Brandon Belt ($3,900), Alejandro Kirk ($3,000)
Desperation wears pinstripes in 2023. Weaver is on his third team of 2023, and the sixth team of his career. That's what happens when you are going to finish with an ERA over 6.00 for the third time in four years. Since 2021, righties have hit .289 against him, while lefties have hit .285, so this is the chance for the Blue Jays lineup to look like what we expected from this lineup heading into the year.
Guerrero has been the face of the lineup's inability to meet expectations, mostly because he's struggled at home. However, since 2021 he has a .903 OPS in Toronto and an .883 OPS against his fellow righties. Vladito also has an 1.097 OPS over the last two weeks. Belt is back from injury, and he has an .876 OPS against righties over the last three seasons. Plus, in his first season with the Blue Jays, he has an .806 OPS at home. You can slot Kirk in at catcher, and a catcher with a great matchup is nice. So is a catcher with a .793 OPS at home.
