This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Saturday's MLB slate is quite light in the afternoon, so DraftKings' main slate features 10 evening contests, with first pitches scheduled between 7:05 and 9:40 EDT. Rain could be a factor in at least two games, with both Reds at Pirates and Braves at Mets (the latter being the second game of a doubleheader) earning the worrisome icon as of writing.
Pitchers
For those who don't feel comfortable without a true top-tier pitcher leading their DFS lineups, it may be wise to carve out the extra room needed to squeeze in Spencer Strider ($12,600). He comes in $1,000 more expensive than any other pitcher despite throwing a dud against the Pirates in his previous outing (six runs in 2.2 innings), but his incredible strikeout upside means it's going to be tough to win a contest without him if he goes off like he often does. His 38.7 percent strikeout rate this season beats every other qualified starter by at least six percentage points, and a Mets team that has its sights set on next season is unlikely to offer much resistance.
In the middle tier, Tony Gonsolin ($8,200) stands out as the best value. That's primarily because of his matchup, as virtually any starter who gets to face the Rockies away from Coors Field is interesting. Gonsolin himself is having a down year, with his ERA jumping to 4.42 after he recorded a 6.89 mark over his last nine outings. Still, the Rockies rank last in team wRC+ (77) by a wide margin and won't get a boost from their home park in this one. With a quality bullpen behind him and Peter Lambert and his 6.80 career ERA on the mound for Colorado, Gonsolin won't even have to pitch that well to have a good shot at a win.
Among the day's cheapest options, I'll side with Cole Ragans ($5,500) over the MLB Optimizer's top choice Jesse Scholtens ($5,700). Ragans came over from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade in late June and has impressed since joining the rotation at the start of August, striking out 19 batters while walking just two in 12.2 frames and giving up just one earned run. A matchup against a Cardinals lineup that ranks fifth by team wRC+ seems tough on the surface, but that ranking drops to 13th against lefties.
Top Targets
For an interesting contrarian play, consider selecting a Padre or two against Zac Gallen, who's been excellent on the year (3.37 ERA) but hittable over his last eight outings (4.38 ERA), giving up at least three runs in six of those starts. If the Padres can get to him early, they could open things up against a bullpen which ranks 25th in team ERA (4.58). Juan Soto ($5,700) will get the platoon advantage against Gallen, making him the top choice if you select just one San DIego bat. Soto got off to an unusually slow start, but he's hit a Soto-esque .294/.426/.559 since the start of May.
I'm interested in several Reds against Andre Jackson, who's worked in a multi-inning relief role this season for the Dodgers and Pirates and could turn things over the bullpen fairly early in the game. Leadoff man TJ Friedl ($4,500) offers a fairly affordable way to get a piece of the best part of the Reds' lineup. Friedl doesn't make hard contact, with his barrel and hard-hit rates sitting in the third and fourth percentile, respectively, but he's ridden a low strikeout rate (17.4 percent) to a .282/.350/.448 line. He's also stolen 21 bases.
Bargain Bats
Ke'Bryan Hayes ($3,300) does a lot of things well on a baseball field, but his defense-first profile hasn't led to all that much fantasy value. He makes a decent amount of contact, beating the league average strikeout rate by a small margin each season, and he hits the ball hard, posting a 47.3 percent hard-hit rate for his career. Far too much of that contact has come on the ground, however, as he's never reached double-digit homers. That could change in the near future, as his three homers in the last four games pushed his season total to a career-high eight. He'll need to keep this streak going for a while longer if he's to pick up the "power hitter" label, but this could be the start of a very encouraging development. Even if it isn't, Hayes' price is very fair given that he'll get the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson, who owns a 4.54 ERA in through his first 15 MLB starts.
The fact that he's set to hit seventh dents his fantasy value, but Lawrence Butler ($2,000) is nonetheless quite interesting for a minimum-price player, with the MLB Optimizer marking him as the top value on the slate. The 23-year-old A's Outfielder went 0-for-4 in his major-league debut Friday, but there's reason to expect much more than the .226/.283/.364 slash line which THE BAT X projects for him the rest of the way. That projection comes with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, and it's not surprising the algorithm got to that number given that it sits neatly between his 18.9 percent mark in the upper minors this year and the 34.1 percent mark he owned prior to this season. A switch that dramatic indicates that Butler isn't the same hitter he was in the lower minors, however, and the projections may not have caught up. It's enough to make him a speculative play Saturday, especially as he'll face Jake Irvin (4.93 ERA) and a weak Nationals bullpen.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Peter Lambert: Mookie Betts ($6,600), Freddie Freeman ($6,500), Max Muncy ($5,000)
If this game were being played at Coors Field, this would easily be the most obvious stack on the slate, but even at Dodger Stadium, it's one of the day's most appealing options. Lambert's career ERA probably wouldn't be as high as 6.80 if he wasn't stuck pitching in Colorado, but his 15.7 percent career strikeout rate wouldn't play anywhere. He's been a bit better this season, posting a 20.3 percent strikeout rate alongside a 5.57 ERA, but at least partially attributable to the fact that just five of his 19 outings have come as a starter. It's worth trying to fit as many of the top Dodgers bats into your lineup as you can, though you may have to go cheaper at pitcher to afford both Betts and Freeman at the top of the stack.
Astros vs. Tyler Anderson: Jose Altuve ($5,800), Alex Bregman ($5,200), Jeremy Pena ($4,200)
A pair of decent starts — three earned runs in 11.1 innings, but just eight strikeouts — aren't nearly enough to put me off stacking against him. He hasn't come close to replicating his surprising success with the Dodgers last year, with his ERA nearly doubling from 2.57 to 4.92. His strikeout rate has only dropped by one point, but his walk rate has jumped from 4.8 percent to 9.4 percent while his groundball rate has plummeted from 40.1 percent to 31.8 percent. That should mean lots of runners on base and lots of extra-base hits for the Astros today. Anderson doesn't have particularly strong splits, so both Yordan Alvarez ($6,200) and Kyle Tucker ($6,000) are justifiably inclusions, but I've gone with the team's first three right-handed bats here instead.
