This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's main slate on DraftKings features eight games, with first pitches scheduled from 7:05 pm to 9:40 pm EDT. The top of the pitching pool features three pitchers in five figures, and there are a number of viable options in the middle of the pack. As we get deeper into August, however, we're also starting to see the usual influx of very unproven arms filtering into the back end of rebuilding teams' rotations, so there should be plenty of pitchers worth picking on as well.
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta ($9,600) shows up as the top value per our MLB Lineup Optimizer, and I'm in agreement with the algorithm on that matter. Much of his appeal comes from the fact that he gets to face a traveling Rockies team, a scenario which makes nearly any starter viable. Colorado hitters own an 83 wRC+ on the road this season, fourth-worst in the league. It wouldn't take a matchup this compelling to make Peralta interesting, however, as he's recorded at least 20 fantasy points in four of his last five starts. His 35.7 percent strikeout rate has helped him to a 3.81 ERA over that stretch, with his 2.97 xFIP suggesting things could have gone far better.
Dane Dunning ($7,200) ranks as the next-best value and could allow you to pay up for the very expensive Spencer Strider ($12,800) or form part of a very inexpensive tandem with the next option on this list. As with Peralta, Dunning gets much of his appeal from his opponent, the lowly Athletics, who rank 24th by team wRC+. He'll also get to throw at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. His low price reflects the fact that his 17.0 percent groundball rate hurts his fantasy ceiling, but he's consistently keps runs off the board (3.14 ERA) and has a great shot at a win in a game in which the Rangers are -225 favorites.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($6,500) comes at a much cheaper price point that his career resume suggests he deserves, but he's a substantial risk in his second start back from Tommy John surgery. His first outing last week against the Orioles wasn't particularly promising, as he allowed four runs on nine hits in five innings while striking out just three batters, but the fact that he threw 80 pitches means he should be able to last at least 90 this time around if he's pitching well. The light-hitting Guardians sit 29th in team wRC+ against lefties, so Ryu has a good chance of being a great value pick who lets you spend up elsewhere.
Top Targets
If we go cheap with one or both of our pitchers, we're going to have space for some big bats. Marcus Semien ($6,100) is the optimizer's top value among the seven bats priced at or above $6k on this slate, and he looks like a strong play against lefty Ken Waldichuk and his 6.52 ERA. The Rangers' leadoff man is making more contact than ever this season, posting a career-low 13.1 percent strikeout rate, and his 9.6 percent walk rate is his best mark since he left Oakland three years ago. He could get on base multiple times and score multiple runs against a pitching staff which owns a 5.84 ERA as a unit.
It isn't generally considered good practice to roster hitters in the bottom third of the order in daily fantasy, but I couldn't help but notice that Atlanta's number nine hitter Michael Harris II ($4,200) shows up as the seventh-biggest value among hitters who cost at least $4,000 on this slate, per the Optimizer. A low projected plate appearance total is usually the problem for hitters late in the order, but Atlanta's offense is good enough to offset that. Harris should come to the plate plenty of times against the Pirates, who are sending 27-year-old rookie Osvaldo Bido and his 5.18 ERA to the mound. Harris' lineup position and the early-season slump which makes his season-long numbers not reflect his current performance could combine to lower his rostership rate.
Bargain Bats
Short-side platoon players who bat near the top of the order against lefties can be great sources of DFS value. Rob Refsnyder ($2,700) is the best example of that phenomenon on Monday's slate, as he's set to lead off against southpaw Cole Ragans. Refsnyder is hitting .174/.284/.217 against right-handers this year, but he's hitting .349/.476/.446 when he gets the platoon advantage, showing great plate skills by walking more than he strikes out. He was even better against lefties last season, posting a 1.095 OPS. Don't expect a huge point total from a player who's cleared the fence just once this season, but a matchup against Ragans and his career 4.66 ERA should make him a solid value play.
Sticking with the theme, Austin Slater ($3,200) is appealing for the same reason and comes at a similarly affordable price point. He's one of the platoon-happy Giants' best lefty-mashers, hitting .301/.365/.493 against southpaws this season while struggling to a .233/.327/.326 mark against same-sided pitching. Slater should lead off against Patrick Sandoval, who's been a more targetable pitcher than his reputation suggests this season. After posting a 2.91 ERA last year, he's struggled to a 4.11 mark this season, largely because his strikeout rate has dropped from 23.7 percent to 18.6 percent.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Gavin Williams: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,100) or Brandon Belt ($3,300), George Springer ($5,000), Whit Merrifield ($4,700),
Williams was one of the better pitching prospects in the minors this season, and nothing he's done in his first eight starts substantially dents his long-term value. But while he's managed a 3.38 ERA thus far in the majors, his underlying numbers suggest he's an appealing pitcher to stack against for now. Williams has been worse than average in all three of strikeout rate (20.7 percent), walk rate (11.7 percent) and groundball rate (35.0 percent), with only good batted ball luck (.276 BABIP) and sequencing (80.2 percent strand rate) preventing his ERA from rising to meet his 4.96 xFIP or his 5.08 SIERA. The top of the Blue Jays' lineup is very right-handed (with Belt the lone exception), so this stack offers less of the platoon advantage than I'd normally like, but Williams' superficially strong ERA may make this a stack which offers the potential to differentiate yourself from the crowd.
Brewers vs. Peter Lambert: Christian Yelich ($5,600), Carlos Santana ($4,100), Sal Frelick ($4,200)
There are two ways to spin Lambert's 5.07 ERA. You could point out that he calls Coors Field home and won't be pitching there today, and indeed, in a small sample of 25.1 road innings this season, his 2.13 ERA is excellent. On the other hand, you could point out that his ERA is inflated even despite the fact that all but four of his 18 appearances this season have come out of the bullpen, and the expectation should be that it will rise still further if he remains in the rotation. His 7.48 ERA across 21 starts prior to this season backs that idea up. Lambert has been particularly awful against lefties this season, as they've hit .321/.415/.506 off him as a group, so this suggested stack features two left-handed bats and one switch hitter (Santana). They'll likely hit first, third and fifth, so consider filling in with righties William Contreras ($4,900) and Willy Adames ($5,000) if they occupy their usual second and fourth spots.
