This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Happy Fourth of July! Given the American holiday, Thursday is packed with MLB games. The trick of it is that the games are spread out across the day. So, what to do on the DFS front? The largest collection of games in any DFS slate on DraftKings is the seven-game slate that starts at 1:05 p.m. ET. Since it is a holiday, and since you might be busy in the evening with fireworks, I figure this works out well. Thus, here are my DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. DET ($8,700): Ober has a 4.30 ERA on the season, but a 3.69 ERA at home. He also has a 1.69 ERA over his last three starts. Sure, those outings were against the Athletics and the Mariners, but the Tigers are only slightly better. They are also in the bottom 10 in runs scored and have a sub-.300 on-base percentage (OBP) as a team as well.
Ben Lively, CLE vs. CWS ($8,200): In his first season with the Guardians, Lively has a 3.03 ERA through 13 starts. He only has one start wherein he's allowed more than three runs, which speaks to a steady performance on the mound. The White Sox and Marlins are neck-and-neck in terms of having the worst OPS in MLB, and the Sox are still comfortably last in runs scored.
Top Target
While his teammate Aaron Judge has taken over in the American League MVP race, Juan Soto ($6,200) has been no slouch this season. He's slashed .300/.437/.560 with 20 home runs in his first campaign as a Yankee. Frankie Montas is also in his first year with a new team, the Reds. He has a 4.44 ERA and has walked 3.73 batters per nine innings. Sure, walking to first isn't what you want from Soto if he's in your lineup, but Montas has also allowed lefties to hit .258 against him, compared to righties hitting .210. A southpaw like Soto is what you want Thursday.
Bargain Bat
On the "better late than never" front, over the last three weeks, George Springer ($3,800) has a .863 OPS (and over the last two weeks his OPS is a robust 1.057, if you don't mind that limited sample size). Even with all his struggles, the former Astro has nine homers and nine stolen bases after a 20/20 campaign in 2023. Speaking of the 'Stros, while Framber Valdez still doesn't allow many home runs, he has a 4.11 ERA through 14 starts. Plus, over his last eight outings, he's posted a 4.99 ERA.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox at Marlins (Kyle Tyler): Rafael Devers ($5,900), Jarren Duran ($5,800), Wilyer Abreu ($4,200)
I decided to go with two stacks from these seven games because there were two I liked quite a bit. Tyler likely won't be in the game long, but if this trio of Red Sox southpaws can get two plate appearances against him, that'll suffice. Tyler has a 4.75 FIP and has allowed lefties to hit .294 against him for the Marlins this year. Thus, my enthusiasm for this Boston stack.
Devers has been a steady hitter for years, so noting he is having perhaps the best season of his career is notable. He's slashed .291/372/.575, but against righties, he's slugged a whopping .635. Devers has also slugged .591 at Fenway Park. Duran is having a remarkable season, as he has double-digit homers and triples. We're only halfway through the season. While Duran does have issues with lefties, he has a .918 OPS versus righties. Abreu truly can't hit southpaws, but he has a .887 OPS against right-handed pitchers in his career. Plus, while Boston lefties often hit better at Fenway, Abreu has a .830 OPS on the road, making this scenario even better for him.
Twins vs. Tigers (Kenta Maeda): Carlos Correa ($5,200), Willi Castro ($4,600), Trevor Larnach ($3,900)
There may be rain in the mix Thursday in the Twin Cities, but the beauty of an afternoon starting time is there is more leeway for a rain delay. The Twins hope to get a crack at their former teammate, as Maeda has been a disaster for the Tigers. How can it get worse than a 5.76 ERA and 6.83 K/9 rate? Oh, how about the fact he has an 8.53 ERA on the road where he's allowed 2.5 homers per nine innings? Righties and lefties have both hit him well, so I had options. These are the three I landed on.
Correa has a 1.150 OPS over the last three weeks, lifting his average to an impressive .310. He's been stellar at home as well, posting a .946 OPS in home games this season. The switch-hitting Castro, who can be rostered at second or in the outfield, has hit seven homers and stolen 10 bases, but he also has five triples. Castro, who is also facing a former team by the way, had 33 stolen bases last year, so there is more upside to be found on the base paths. Facing a righty at home is when you want to roster Larnach. Since 2022, he has a .749 OPS versus righties, which is fine, but he has an .862 OPS at home in that time as well.
