This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-1, +0.9 RWBucks (two rainouts)
Season: 45-63, -25.18 RWBucks
April: 23-34, -13.53 RWBucks
May: 22-29, -11.65 RWBucks
I had hoped for a stronger May than April, and while I did technically meet that goal, it wasn't by enough to buy a decent lunch. Actually, I know a good, cheap lunch joint in the Bronx, so maybe it was. In any case, the central thesis of this column -- that a smart baseball guy can beat the books on baseball without using algorithms -- is taking a beating.
There's not much to pick from in the details. I'm over .500 on totals but losing money. I am not sure that's actionable, as on a game-to-game basis I am generally finding good spots, with a lot of rough sequencing keeping me from the money. Team totals are the only positive sub-category, at just under a single unit plus. First-five betting is a mess, 1-5 and down nearly a full unit per bet, and run-line betting is worse: 0-5, -4.75. Those two types alone account for a third of the overall loss on just 10% of the bets.
In June, we'll continue to put a few more bets out a day while varying the amounts a bit more. I prefer not to seem like I am chasing -- and in fact, were I doing this for real, I would shave my units down to reflect the lowered bankroll. $10/unit on April 1 would now be $7.50/unit, to lower the risk of ruin. I'm also going to lean in even more on totals, the one thing I'm doing reasonably well, while hunting out more underdogs with value.
Mostly, though, I'm just going to keep putting in the time covering baseball, tracking baseball, and using that knowledge to provide picks and the occasional laugh. Those last two are supposed to be separate things, believe me.
6 p.m. Indians (Shane Bieber) -148 over White Sox (Dylan Cease)
So the first thing I do is take a favorite. Dylan Cease is a conundrum, a starter with an 11% walk rate who has, so far in 2021, gotten away with it thanks to a fantastic contact profile: an expected batting average allowed of .192, expected slugging of .326. His off-speed stuff has been just this side of unhittable, with xBAs on his curve, slider, and change all .168 and below. It's not so extreme as to be unsustainable, but it is such an improvement over his career to date that I still can't trust it. The pitching matchup on the page looks closer than the one on the mound, so I'll take Shane Bieber and once again fade Cease. 1 RWBuck.
7 p.m. Orioles (Bruce Zimmermann) +1.5 (-115) over Twins (Michael Pineda)
The Orioles have lost 14 straight and 20 of 22, but truly, they're not playing quite that poorly. They've been outscored 93-48, which would normally produce a few wins over 14 games. Their run prevention has actually been fairly good over the last week. Tonight presents a couple of paths to profit, including what's become a reliable bet, the Twins' bullpen. Hansel Robles tried to cough this one up yesterday, escaping after allowing the tying run in the tenth to get to third with nobody out. Let's put that energy to good use tonight. 1 RWBuck.
7:20 p.m. Nationals (Stephen Strasburg) +120 over Braves (Max Fried)
The way his starts have fallen has prevented me from going back to the Max Fried well, and for good: Fried has a 1.50 ERA in four starts since coming off the injured list. The performance has been shakier than that, with a 10% walk rate and a mere 20/9 K/BB. Two of his starts, the most recent two, were against whatever is left of the Mets, and the Pirates. The Braves are 2-2 in the four outings; injuries have caught up with Atlanta, which has an 87 wRC+ over the last week. The Nats are fourth in the NL in wRC+ against southpaws. We'll take the better starter at plus money. 1 RWBuck.
8 p.m. Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) -113 over Padres (Ryan Weathers)
This would have been -140 or so eight weeks ago, before Kyle Hendricks spent a month being beaten like Sergio Garcia on a Sunday. In May, Hendricks had four quality starts in five, posted a 2.67 ERA, and issued just two unintentional walks. Hendricks gave up nine homers in an 11-day stretch in April, and just two since. He's back, and he's now pitching in front of what was the best bullpen in baseball in May. 1.5 RWBucks.
