This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous Article: 2-1 +1.65
Season: 2-1 +1.65
We got off to a positive start with Opening Day bets, and I'm back for another Thursday slate of games. There are 11 matchups to choose from, ranging from 1:10 EDT to 10:10 EDT. With a day full of baseball, let's jump in.
Seattle Mariners 
at Chicago White Sox 
2:10 PM EDT
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Jimmy Lambert
The Pick: Seattle Moneyline (-105 on BetMGM ) for 1 RW buck
It may be important to jump on this line early, before the Chicago lineup is released. In addition to Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock suffering injuries early in the season, Eloy Jimenez exited Wednesday night's game with an ankle injury, and Josh Harrison with a tweaked back. Neither injury may be serious, but it would be a natural time to keep the pair out of the lineup given both the injury and quick turnaround with a day game following a night game. Though the White Sox would still have a solid top-four in the lineup, with the likes of Tim Anderson and Luis Robert particularly hitting well, the bottom half of the order is looking likely to be full of relatively weak bats.
Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert was impressive in his season debut, posting a 16.5 swinging strike rate while also showing added velocity on all of his pitches.
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Miami Marlins 
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Sandy Alcantara
The Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Marlins have spent the first six games of the season on the road, so Thursday will mark their home opener. As expected, their offense hasn't been particularly impressive, as the lineup collectively possesses a .263 wOBA – fourth-lowest in the league.
From a pitching perspective, the Marlins are also in a strong position to suppress runs, even facing off against a strong Philadelphia offense. Not only is ace Alcantara on the mound, but Marlins Park is among the best at keeping scoring to a minimum.
Kyle Gibson is the wild card in this formula, as he has all-or-nothing tendencies. Across 30 starts in 2021, he allowed five or more earned runs 16 percent of the time. He pitched well in his initial start of the 2022 campaign against a weak Oakland offense, and the hope is that he can utilize the park and another matchup against a subpar lineup to keep the Miami offense in check.
Atlanta Braves 
at San Diego Padres 
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Joe Musgrove
The Pick: Joe Musgrove under 6.5 strikeouts (-165 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Even laying odds, this line is aggressive for Musgrove and it seems like an overreaction to his dominant first outing against the hapless Diamondbacks offense. Looking over a larger sample, Musgrove failed to surpass 6 strikeouts in 19 of his 31 starts last season. While that rate is in line with the current odds, the matchup against Atlanta is enough to take the under.
In order to reach the over, Musgrove will 1) have to work deep into the game, and 2) generate strikeouts at a prolific enough rate. Forgive that statement of the obvious, but Atlanta has the second-highest on-base percentage in the league (.358) early this season. That means they make opposing pitchers face more batters, in turn running their pitch count up. That weighs against Musgrove's ability to meet point number one. Next, they have struck out at a 23.3 percent rate – nearly exactly the middle of the league, weighing against point number two. Given those factors, this isn't a start for Musgrove to reach the upper percentiles of his potential outcomes.
