This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 3-0
This year 6-3
Betting Sunday baseball can be tough as the lines do not come out as early vs. during the week, so you have to pick your spots. But they also offer opportunity especially on pitchers' props because a lot of teams rest their veteran hitters, which means lineups are weaker than normal.
Marlins vs. Nationals 1:05 p.m. EDT
Trevor Rogers vs. Max Scherzer -154, 7 total
I look for some specific things when I pick an under run total for the 1st five innings — we get a lot of them in this game. Two strong starting pitchers in the National League (pitchers hit) on a Sunday (veterans rest) with less than normal lineups. The Marlins are without Jazz Chisholm and Starling Marte while the Nationals are without Juan Soto. What's more, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber are not in the lineup Sunday vs. the lefty.
Rogers is on the verge of becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. His tall lanky frame and easy delivery is a throwback to pitchers in the 60s and 70s, which is why I LOVE watching him pitch. Max is Max. I don't expect many runs in this game, and by betting on the 1st five we should get both starters representing all of those innings.
BET: Under 4 runs (1st 5 innings) -130 1 RWbuck
Red Sox at Rangers 2:35 p.m.
Garrett Richards vs. Mike Foltynewicz; Richards -122, 9 total
I was born in Massachusetts and have been a Red Sox fan my entire life, so I watch the TV broadcast and listen to the radio. The biggest thing about Richards is the talk that Dave Bush and Richards studied a ton of film and made some adjustments. If you saw Richards' last outing, you could see his curveball was doing some amazing things to the tune of 10 strikeouts in five innings. There has never been an issue of talent with Richards, it has always been health.
The Rangers are 29th in strikeout percentage and 23rd in walk percentage. I am banking that he follows his last start and gets a strikeout heavy Rangers lineup that might be a little weaker on a Sunday afternoon game after a night one.
BET: Garrett Richards over 5.5 strikeouts -140 for 1 RWbuck
Rockies at Diamondbacks 4:10 p.m.
Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Merrill Kelly -140, 8.5 total
When looking at the RotoWire daily projections, Gonzalez is the worst starting pitcher on the slate in terms of innings pitched, strikeout rate, walk rate, total bases percent allowed, etc. It goes on and on. It would not surprise me if this total gets bumped up to 9 by game time.
Gonzalez's strikeout rate is one of the lowest in baseball among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings. The Diamondbacks should just on-base him to death and pile up the runs. In the last 12 games, the Dbacks are 9-3 while averaging 6.1 runs per game and only going under 4.5 three times. The key is in the nine wins they never scored less than five runs and have only gone under five once all year when they win.
Oh, yeah the Rockies are the worst team in the National League and third worst in MLB.
BET: Diamondbacks over 4.5 runs -120 for 1 RWbuck
