This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 3-1, +1.70
Overall: 65-46, +10.32
Astros vs. Rangers, 2:10 p.m. EDT
This was a late add once I saw the attempted lineup the Rangers are rolling out Sunday.
The Rangers hit just .145 in their last seven games and .199 in their last 30. In their last 13 games, they averaged 1.9 runs per game. Nick Solak was sent down to Triple-A and Adolis Garcia is not in Sunday's lineup. Hold your nose on this one and take Greinke over 4.5 strikeouts on BetMGM.
BET: Rangers under 3.5 runs (-128 FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Greinke over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
Athletics at Mariners, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Irvin is 7-2 to the under on 8.5 runs or less this year, and one of those missed under by half a run. The average total runs scored in those nine games was just 6.8, with one 12 runs when he faced the Astros. The bottom line is Irvin has been an under pitcher all year and he gets a road start in one of the most favorable pitchers' parks. The Mainers are 29th in runs scored at home in the first five innings with 2.1. Also, the Mariners lineup is weak at home, hitting just .203 vs. .234 on the road.
I am staying away from the side as the Mariners are 22-12 as home dogs. I have this total to be more in the 7.5–8.0 range vs. 8.5-9.0. (Note: two sportsbooks moved this to 9, so watch this line and wait to see if others move to 9.)
BET: Under 8.5 runs (+100) for 1 RW buck
Brewers vs. White Sox, 7:08 p.m. EDT
Brandon Woodruff vs. Lance Lynn
One of my system plays I have used all year is the under first five innings when two aces face off in a National League park with a low total. We have that again with the White Sox and Brewers.
I really like the White Sox under based on their recent struggles — hitting .218 in last 10 and .200 against power pitchers (top third in strikeouts, bottom third in walks). Woodruff is 21-8-1 to the under in his last 30 starts and 13-6 in 2021. Lynn has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 of 17 starts and one or fewer in 11 of 17 starts. On the road he has allowed one or fewer runs in five of six starts with at Houston being the only exception. No opinion on the side, but the White Sox are just 2-12 as road dogs this year.
BET: Under 7.5 runs (-120) for 1 RWBuck
