This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-1 +1.9
Overall 43-22 +13.11
Another solid 3-1 showing in the Wednesday article with three pretty easy wins and a tough loss on the total in the Mets/Braves. This puts me at 64% on the season for MLB bets.
Normally I lean on strikeout props heavily especially on Sunday, but one game really stood out for me as being able to dig and find tremendous value on the situation.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles 1:07 pm ET
Ross Stripling vs. Jorge Lopez
We have a huge money line (-220) and total (10.5) in this game, so we need to find value on the Blue Jays, the over on the Blue Jays, and the under on the Orioles. The Orioles rank near the bottom in every category for this split today (AWAY vs Right-handed pitching). The crazy part is that they are almost as bad as the Rockies on the road in this situation. They have allowed more than five runs in eight out of their last 10 road games.
Everything lines up for a complete wipeout there for the Blue Jays today. I expect Stripling to go at least six innings with six strikeouts and have the ability to get into the seventh inning with a decent lead.
BET – Stripling over 5.5 strikeouts (+125) for 1 RW buck
BET – Blue Jays -2.5 (+115) runs for 1 RW buck
BET – Orioles under 3.5 runs (+115) for 1 RW buck
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels 1:10 pm ET
Ryan Yarbrough vs. Patrick Sandoval
I love to ride this Tampa Bay home favorite wave until it stops, which I don't think it will this season.
When you have a team that is 19-4 in the last 23 games as a home favorite, you lock it in. The Rays are about a -150 favorite today, but I want odds closer to even or plus money if I can find it.
In the 19-4 run, the Rays have outscored opponents 5.1 to 2.7. Easy for me to lay the -1.5 runs and get plus money.
BET – Rays -1.5 runs (+150) for 1 RW buck