This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 1-2-1 (-1.12 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 3-3-2 (-0.26 RW Bucks)
I'm focused on a pair of later battles out west Saturday, one in each league. I'm relying a substantial amount on one starter's strong and extensive history against his opponent in one game, and the combination of an excellent early body of work and a favorable opponent in the second.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Yu Darvish
The Pick: Padres over 3.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Padres (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Anderson has started strong with a pair of four-inning, two-hit, one-run relief outings against the Rockies and Reds, respectively. However, he gets a particularly tough assignment Saturday, as the Padres average a solid 4.4 runs per home game and have posted a .341 wOBA and 125 wRC+ in their first 174 plate appearances of the season against southpaws. Current San Diego bats also have a solid history against Anderson, posting a collective .289/.334/.450 batting line in 105 career encounters.
In contrast, Darvish has consistently bedeviled the Dodgers, including last season, when he produced a 2.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 30 innings in five starts against Los Angeles. Current Dodgers bats have a collective .137 average and a .490 OPS against Darvish, though two newer members of the Blue Crew, Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner, have hit him well while playing elsewhere. Nevertheless, Darvish has thrived in his pitcher-friendly home park since arriving in San Diego, posting an 0.95 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 there last season and tossing 6.2 innings of one-run ball against Atlanta in his first home turn this season.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, 9:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Spenser Watkins vs. Noah Syndergaard
The Pick: Angels -1.5 (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Picks: Orioles under 3 total runs (+102) for 1 RW Buck
Watkins pitched well his last time out against the A's after giving up four runs in three innings to the Brewers in his first start of the season, and he also allowed an 8.07 ERA and 1.70 WHIP during his rookie 2021 campaign. The right-hander faces an Angels squad that averages an impressive 4.9 runs per game and boasting a .350 wOBA, 10.7 wRAA and 135 wRC+ in 326 PAs against righties.
Syndergaard's first two normal-length starts since 2019 have gone extremely well, as the big righty has given up just two runs over his first 11.1 innings on his way to a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. The Orioles have scored just 33 runs for an MLB-low average of 2.4 runs per game, including 2.0 per road game. Baltimore is also carrying a 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, along with a .201 average, .572 OPS, .267 wOBA and -8.9 wRAA in 311 plate appearances in that split.
