This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-2, -1.14 RW Bucks
Season: 26-31-3, -5.93 RW Bucks
A pair of matchups between four contending teams are in my betting crosshairs for a busy Saturday. The storied Yankees-Red Sox rivalry has its second installment of the weekend, and I explore the viability of New York as a rare underdog, while the A's and Giants interleague Bay Bridge clash sees two struggling pitchers facing off.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, 7:16 pm Eastern
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Nathan Eovaldi
The Pick: Yankees moneyline (+115 at William Hill Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Montgomery's 4.03 ERA is serviceable and on the way down, as he's pitched to a 3.15 ERA over the 34.1 innings covering his last six starts. The young left-hander also encouragingly has an 0.8 HR/9 over that stretch, and for the season, he's allowed more than four earned runs just once. He's also recorded at least 17 outs in six of 14 starts and has come within one or two outs of accomplishing the feat in four other outings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox check in with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate, .213 average, -5.2 wRAA and AL-low .274 wOBA against lefties at home in the last month.
Eovaldi is enjoying a solid season overall as evidenced by his 7-4 record and 3.90 ERA, and he got by his old squad on June 4 by allowing two runs on eight hits over six innings. However, Eovaldi is allowing a .295 average to right-handed hitters overall, which naturally could spell trouble against the Yankees' array of righty-swinging sluggers, and he's been more vulnerable at home with a 4.29 ERA across 56.2 innings. New York also ranks in the top 10 in baseball against righties on the road in the last month with 14 homers.
Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants, 10:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs. Alex Wood
The Pick: Over 8.0 runs (-115 on William Hill Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Over 4.5 runs first 5 innings (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Montas has struggled intermittently throughout the season, a fact borne out by his 7-7 record, 4.79 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He's had his troubles spread out fairly evenly between home and road and has been a bit worse in the latter split, pitching to a 5.02 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 in 28.2 away innings. He does have the benefit of avoiding the DH in the road interleague matchup Saturday, but the Giants have hit an MLB-high 22 home runs against right-handers at home in the last month and boast a .333 average, 39.1 wRAA and .439 wOBA in that split as well, all which also set the pace in MLB.
Wood hasn't exactly been in top form lately either, as he sports a 7.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9 across the 24 innings covering his last five starts. The left-hander has allowed between four and seven runs in four of those outings, and he's been more generous at home this season with a 4.42 ERA (compared to 3.62 on the road) across 38.2 innings. The A's are a tough matchup as well, as they come in with a .267 average and .342 wOBA against southpaws on the road in the last month.
