This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-0, 2.30 RW Bucks
Season: 23-24-3, -3.08 RW Bucks
We're set for another busy MLB Saturday, and a couple of mid-afternoon NL battles have caught my eye. There's a particularly attractive price on a moneyline/totals parlay for the Padres-Mets battle, while I'm hoping to capitalize on what is easily the worst road team in recent memory in the Rockies.
Padres at Mets, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove vs. Marcus Stroman
Moneyline + Total Runs Double: Mets + Under 7.5 runs (+260 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
This sets up as an intriguing pitcher's duel between veterans who are arguably flashing some of the best stuff of their careers. Musgrove checks in with a 2.33 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, sub-.200 BAAs against either handedness, a 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate and a 34.2 percent strikeout rate. Moreover, he's actually been at his best on the road, where he owns a 1.76 ERA and 0.68 WHIP across 30.2 innings. However, he has an interesting challenge on his hands Saturday in the Mets, who went into Friday boasting an MLB-high .380 wOBA and a .291 average against righties at home in the last month.
On the other side, Stroman compares favorably, as he boasts a 2.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and minuscule 0.9 HR/9. Additionally, he's done his best work at home, where he sports a 1.99 ERA and has yet to give up a home run in 22.2 innings. He's also coming off a strong showing against the Padres at their place in his last start, where he blanked San Diego in 6.2 innings while recording seven strikeouts. The Padres also went into Friday's matchup versus Jacob deGrom, where they scored just two runs, with a .217 average, .284 wOBA and -8.3 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month.
I like the idea of both a close Mets win – in addition to their strong work against righties at home, it's worth noting they got to Musgrove for three runs, including a pair of homers, over five innings Sunday – and the under, given the quality of both pitchers.
Rockies at Reds, 4:10 p.m.
Starting Pitchers: German Marquez vs. Wade Miley
The Pick: Reds -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Under 9.5 runs (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Marquez has been outstanding over his last four starts, pitching to a 1.04 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 in that 26-inning span. The right-hander's home/road splits aren't that drastic when considering the Coors factor, but he has been slightly better on the road with a 3.74 ERA and 10.0 K/9. However, he does sport an 0-4 mark when traveling primarily because of how poorly Colorado hits outside of Coors, and he's facing a Reds team that's been good against righties at home all season and owns a 7.7 wRAA and .340 wOBA in that split over the last month.
Miley continues to sport career lows in ERA (2.96), WHIP (1.13) and HR/9 (0.5), and he actually hasn't allowed the ball to leave the yard against him in five straights starts and six of the last seven overall. He's also done his best work at home despite the hitter-friendly conditions at Great American Ball Park, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP there across 26.2 innings. The Rockies make for excellent targets Saturday, as they've posted a .224 average and .307 wOBA against southpaws on the road in the last month, and they own a 27.5 percent strikeout rate, .220 average, -5.8 wRAA and .286 wOBA in that split for the season.
Given Colorado's MLB-worst 5-25 record and MLB-low 2.5 runs per game on the road, I like the Reds as straight up winners and the under to hit as well.
