This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 0-2, -2.00 RW Bucks
Season: 15-22-3, -8.71 RW Bucks
While we have our usual big Saturday slate, I didn't need to look any further than the matinee portion of the ledger for a pair of games to try to reverse course on a recent rough stretch. I'm absorbing some relatively heavy odds in the first game but think it's a worthwhile wager, while I like the price on the underdog in the second game, which features a struggling but talented pitcher who has the ability to right his ship.
Orioles at White Sox, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Matt Harvey vs. Dallas Keuchel
The Pick: White Sox -175 (William Hill Sportsbook) for 2 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Harvey pulled off a fairly convincing impression of a competent pitcher in his first few starts of the season, but he's progressively come unglued as the campaign has unfolded. He has a 15.19 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last three starts, with two of those on the road. He faces a White Sox squad that's laced 21 extra-base hits and posted a .332 wOBA against righties at home in May, and that features a group of hitters that have generated a collective .290/.365/.436 slash line in 37 career plate appearances against him. Baltimore relievers have also been poor on the road in May with a 7.59 ERA, .865 OPS and .374 wOBA in a 192-batter sample.
Keuchel admittedly has some concerning peripheral metrics — a 4.6 K/9 and 5.84 xERA are two examples — but he's used his veteran savvy to frequently wiggle out of trouble. The southpaw has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of 10 starts, though he does have a 5.16 ERA at home and is facing an Orioles squad that owns a .310 average, .850 OPS and .363 wOBA against lefties on the road in May (163 plate appearances). However, the difference between he and Harvey's scenarios is that Keuchel is backed up by a much better bullpen. ChiSox relievers have allowed a 2.88 ERA and .291 wOBA at home in May.
Reds at Cubs, 2:20 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Zach Davies
The Pick: Reds +104 (FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1.5 RWBucks
Castillo's struggles are such that despite the fact the Reds are facing an average arm in Davies, they're still underdogs. The hard-throwing right-hander certainly has more talent than his 7.61 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 would imply. His 4.43 xERA and 4.04 xFIP help support that notion, as does the unsustainably high .382 BABIP against him. Saturday may afford him an opportunity to right his ship, as the Cubs have a .137 ISO and .306 wOBA against righties at home in May, and their current bats have posted a collective .209/.255/.318 slash line in 149 career plate appearances against him.
Davies has arguably been lucky to have a 4.96 ERA and 1.72 WHIP, as he's carrying a 7.15 xERA and 5.72 xFIP and has also allowed a career-high 40.1 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast. He does have better numbers at home overall, but he's still allowed a .277 average and .331 wOBA at Wrigley over 21.2 innings, while the Reds have a modest 18.2 percent strikeout rate, .261 average and 31 extra-base hits versus righties on the road in May.
