This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 0-4, -4.00 RW Bucks
Season: 15-20-3, -6.71 RW Bucks
With a typically busy Saturday slate, I'm actually honed in on two of the earlier games on the ledger. A marquee pitching matchup in New York leads us off, and then there's also an opportunity to jump on a road underdog that's playing a fellow last-place team in an NL park.
White Sox at Yankees, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Gerrit Cole
The Pick: First 5 innings Under 3.5 runs (+106 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
All the numbers point to a pitchers' duel in the Bronx, at least as long as the starters hang in. Cease has a 2.41 ERA, 11.0 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 with a career-high 14.2 percent swinging-strike rate. The matchup against the Yankees on the road is never easy, but it's a bit leas daunting with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on the IL.
Cole's numbers are even more jaw-dropping, with his 85:5 K:BB. The right-hander surprisingly got hit hard by the Rangers on the road his last time out, but Cole has been sensational at home with a 1.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 13.4 K/9 in 31.2 innings.
Given the quality of the starters and the ability both have demonstrated in avoiding the long ball, I think a flyer on the first five innings prop, low as it is, is worth a shot at plus money.
Orioles at Nationals, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Bruce Zimmermann vs. Jon Lester
The Pick: Orioles +143 (William Hill Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Zimmermann just stymied the Yankees for an earned run on two hits in 5.2 innings in his most recent start, and he's limited the damage to three earned runs or less in five of his other six starts as well. The southpaw does have his share of warts — he doesn't miss many bats and can have trouble keeping the ball in the park — but he's facing a Nats team that's posted a .198 average, .295 wOBA and MLB-low 19.7 percent hard-contact rate versus lefties at home in the last month and also gets the benefit of not having to face a DH in the NL park.
The Orioles are fairly significant underdogs against a pitcher who is certainly capable of slip-ups. Lester was very impressive in his first three Nationals starts, but he faltered against his old Cubs teammates his last time out by surrendering three home runs on his way to allowing five earned runs overall in 5.1 innings. The Orioles are far from a punchless team against lefties as well, posting a .274 average and .728 OPS versus that handedness on the road in the last month.
