This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: Free MLB Picks and Props for Friday, June 23
Season: 41-57 -34.85 units
Prior Article: 2-2 -0.60 units
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Both teams are two of the hottest in baseball and Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver has blown through the minors to get to the show as a 20-year-old. There is no prediction on the side in this game, but getting the Braves lineup against Luke Weaver in Great American "Small" Park is enticing.
The total in this game opened 10.5, jumped to 11.5, but can be found at 11 and we are going to need to shop around on this one. Not many sportsbooks post team totals, so DraftKings is typically where I end up.
The Braves offense has dominated over the last 30 days, leading just about every category in baseball and Weaver has a 6.47 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. They average 3.4 runs per game F5 and have gone OVER their team total in seven out of their last 10. They are 16-3 in their last nine games, averaging 6.6 runs per game (7.2 last 13). This is the best offense in baseball and should light up the scoreboard again Friday night.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Reds
- Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Braves OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
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Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Another shot to go against Patrick Corbin and take a hot offense versus one of the worst pitchers on the slate. The Padres are finally starting to hit as a team with 5.1 runs per game over their last 14. Corbin has gotten lit up by right-handed batters for a .321 batting average compared to .232 against left-handers. He also has a putrid 14.3% K rate and 1.69 WHIP against righties.
This is a perfect spot to tag team with the two best right-handed bats in the Padres' lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado on total bases and sprinkle something on the home run props. Both are in the top 15 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (Tatis 6th, Machado 14th).
MLB Best Bets for Nationals at Padres
- Manny Machado OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Fernando Tatis OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.73 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Manny Machado to hit a home run for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +425)
- Fernando Tatis to hit a home run for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +260)
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin has some of the best home/road splits in baseball; he also has a 7-0 record at home F5. Eflin's home numbers (1.85 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) are elite vs. his road numbers (5.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). It is hard to find value in a game when the favorite is -250, so looking for numbers in the -150 or less range is ideal.
MLB Best Bets for Royals at Rays
- Royals UNDER 1.5 runs F5 for 1.45 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Rays -0.5 F5 for 1.25 unit (DraftKings -125)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Braves OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Manny Machado OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Fernando Tatis OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.73 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Manny Machado to hit a home run for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +425)
- Fernando Tatis to hit a home run for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +260)
- Royals UNDER 1.5 runs F5 for 1.45 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Rays -0.5 F5 for 1.25 unit (DraftKings -125)