This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Saturday, July 1
Season: 48-58 -28.40 units
Prior Article: 4-0 +4.00 units
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Washington Nationals 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Using the new Starting Pitcher Intel tool, Zack Wheeler has an elite matchup against the Nationals today. This data along with several other metrics I look at have Wheeler as the best pitcher on the slate.
The Nationals started off strong before falling back to expectations, but in the last few series they've taken 2-of-3 on the road from Padres and Mariners. The Phillies have been the stronger team over the recent stretch,going 14-6 and 19-11 over their last 20 and 30 games. The Nationals are 8-12 and 11-19 over the same period.
This game will probably be won by the Phillies bats against the Nationals bullpen, which ranks in the bottom five.
One of my favorite system plays is taking a favorite on the run line at close to even money when the money line is -200 or greater, especially when there is a significant edge in the quality of the two teams. The Phillies are looking to compete for another playoff run, while the Nationals are still one of the worst teams in baseball.
MLB Best Bets for Nationals at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1.05 unit (BetMGM -105)
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Chicago White Sox 
at Oakland Athletics 
When analyzing a baseball slate, I always start with pitching at the top and bottom to see which matchups have the biggest edge. While I love Wheeler today, going AGAINST Kyle Muller is also a strong play.
Muller has been a bottom five pitcher in baseball among the 144 starters who have thrown at least 40 innings. His season numbers — 8.04 ERA and 1.96 WHIP — have actually gotten worse in the last month (10.80 ERA, 2.02 WHIP).
Dylan Cease should be able to capitalize on his strengths of striking out batters and limiting power against the A's lineup in their ballpark.
MLB Best Bets for White Sox at Athletics
- White Sox OVER 5.5 runs for 1.02 unit (FanDuel -102)
- White Sox -1.5 runs for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
Los Angeles Angels 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Both teams are top six in runs scored in the first five innings (Angels 3.15, Diamondbacks 2.92), both are starting mediocre pitchers in Ryne Nelson and Tyler Anderson.
Nelson and Anderson rank near the bottom of my starting pitcher rankings and both offenses can put up runs. The Starting Pitcher Intel tool has Nelson graded out as "POOR" against the Angels lineup, graded at 89/100. It has Tyler Anderson graded as "WEAK" against a 90/100 rated Dbacks lineup.
MLB Best Bets for Angels at Diamondbacks
- Angels/Diamondbacks OVER 5.5 runs F5 for 1.1 unit (DraftKings -110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1.05 unit (BetMGM -105)
- White Sox OVER 5.5 runs for 1.02 unit (FanDuel -102)
- White Sox -1.5 runs for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Angels/Diamondbacks OVER 5.5 runs F5 for 1.1 unit (DraftKings -110)
