This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 25: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 (-1.10 units)
Season 51-56-1 (-6.25 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Before locking in your MLB bets today, be sure to check out these key betting trends.
Road Favorites - Yankees -285 at Rockies, Phillies -175 at Athletics, Giants -160 at Nationals, Brewers -140 at Pirates
Home Favorites (Largest) - Tigers -275 vs Guardians
Totals - Yankees/Rockies 10.5-11.0, Phillies/Athletics 9.5-10.0
Guardians/Tigers 7.0
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
Similar to Friday evening, we have cool weather and high air pressure. Most temperatures today are in the 50-60 degree range which will impact how the ball carries. There are a couple heaters in Atlanta and Tampa with wind also blowing out.
Possible Rain Delay/Rainouts - Yankees at Rockies, Blue Jays at Rays, Dbacks at Cardinals
Negative Scoring Environments (based on temperature and wind) - Royals at Twins, Guardians at Tigers, Dbacks at Cardinals, Dodgers at Mets
Positive Scoring Environments - Phillies at Athletics, Cubs at Reds, Blue Jays at Rays
MLB Line Movement
Tigers -45, Angels -27
Most totals have dropped 0.5 runs based on the weather.
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/20/25)
Top 10 (Twins, Astros, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Rays, Tigers). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on first 5 inning lines.
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Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Insights
There is something about these Midwest / Central teams that suggests low scoring games. It must be the weaker lineups combined with stronger starting pitching and bullpens. The Royals have been a play on UNDER team for a while now (see Pirates below). But we also get two solid starting pitchers in Kris Bubic (2nd in MLB with a 1.47 ERA) and Bailey Ober sporting a 3.68 ERA.
The Royals are much like the Pirates in that they are scoring only 2.7 runs per game over their last 10. The Twins average 4.5 runs over their last 10, but they also have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games against Kansas City.
MLB Best Bets: Royals/Twins UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
I got burned on this Friday night with the under 7 runs, but it took extra innings to do it. Now we get a total of 8.5 with two pretty good pitchers that are just not household names. Logan Henderson and Bailey Falter have been solid pitchers. I have this game projected for a total of closer to 7.5 versus the 8.5 posted.
The Pirates have averaged 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 and the Brewers are averaging 4.2 runs per game in their last 10. The Brewers are 25th in wRC+ (70) against left-handed pitching.
Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 20 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games at home.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers/Pirates UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +100)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Athletics Best Bets and Predictions
These two teams are heading in opposite directions with the Phillies 9-1 last 10, and 16-4 last 20 while the A's are 0-10 last 10 and 5-15 last 20. The pitching matchup of Jesus Luzardo against Gunnar Hoglund also favors the Phillies in a huge way which makes for a perfect spot to lay the 1.5 runs at close to even money.
Phillies in their last 10, runs scored / runs allowed 5.4 - 3.6 (1.8 differential)
Athletics last 10, runs scored / runs allowed 2.9 - 7.6 (-4.7 differential)
Trends
- Philadelphia is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
- Philadelphia is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
- Athletics is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games.
- Athletics is 0-7 SU in its last 7 games at home.
MLB Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Bet365 -110)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Royals/Twins UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Brewers/Pirates UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +100)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Bet365 -110)
