This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 2-2, +0.3
Overall: 45-24, +13.41
Frustrating day yesterday with Ross Stripling, who I thought was in a prime spot to have a great outing, but the team totals played out how I expected. On the other side, the Rays looked to be in good shape until some late runs by the Angels killed the pick. Overall, 2-2 but because I had 3 dogs it was a slighty profitable day. I can not stress how important it is to find value in betting baseball. Your bankroll can take a hit when you bet too many high favorites and lose.
If you notice, I have backed off a lot of the strikeout props. One reason is that when I do my daily projections, I am not seeing the value like I was in April/May. I do believe oddsmakers have adjusted strikeout props and gotten much sharper with their numbers. Also, the Spider tac/warmer weather narrative is making it harder to find value on taking overs with strikeout props. The issue on taking unders is that a pitcher can have a bad outing and still hit his strikeout prop number. I am leaning more towards run lines, team totals, earned runs, and total outs to find value.
Los Angeles Angels 
at New York Yankees 
7:05 PM
This is a trends play on the Angels, who are 9-1 over the total in their last 10 road games. Oddsmakers have clearly adjusted the total in this game by opening it at 10 and seeing it move to 10.5. While I am not sure if the game gets to 11 runs, I do love the Angels over the total as we get them as a decent size underdog and great value. They have averaged 5.7 runs per game during this 10 game stretch.
BET – Angels over 4.5 runs (-105) for 1 RW buck
Boston Red Sox 
vs. Kansas City Royals 
7:10 PM
Garrett Richards vs. Danny Duffy
Richards is a broken pitcher and probably one more bad start from being removed from the Red Sox starting rotation in favor of Tanner Houck. The Royals are the worst nightmare for Richards because they do not strike out a ton and he has a below-average strikeout rate along with a high walk rate. I see Alex Cora having a very short leash with Richards tonight at the first sign of trouble.
BET – Richards under 4.5 strikeouts (+105) for 1 RW buck
Houston Astros 
vs. Baltimore Orioles 
8:10 PM
You know that I love to target huge money line favorites with a run line bet. More sportsbooks are offering alternate run line totals and I have no problem laying more than two runs in certain spots this being one of them. I played this last week and it cashed easily. The Astros and Orioles are two of the lowest teams in one-run games. The Astros win a lot of games more than one run and the Orioles play very few close games. I can see this game being 5-2 tonight.
BET – Astros -2.5 runs (-105) for 1 RW buck
Chicago White Sox 
vs. Minnesota Twins 
8:10 PM
I saw this game opened the White Sox -145 and quickly went to -135. I think the line move is related to Jose Abreu being out. But I still think the number is very low on the White Sox side especially with Lucas Giolito pitching at home against Kenta Maeda. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions recently but this line screams recency bias. The White Sox are 28-14 at home and still the better team overall in this spot.
BET – White Sox -0.5 runs F5 (+100) for 1 RW buck
