This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous Day 3-1 +2.35
Season 22-7 +9.76
Another successful 3-1 Sunday as we continue to crush the board on the K props. Monday presents a different challenge with a shorter slate, so best to play it a little closer to the vest. I also like to dig into more team totals and 1st 5 innings plays on a Monday.
Philadelphia Phillies 
vs. Miami Marlins 
6:40 PM EDT
Pitching Matchup: Zach Eflin vs. Trevor Rogers
Eflin might be the most underrated starting pitcher in baseball along with Julio Urias (who I was on big yesterday and came through). He has a 57 K to 5 BB ratio nine starts along with a 3.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The ERA is high mainly from a couple of starts on the road, but the Marlins play in one of the best pitching-friendly environments in baseball.
What I like about Eflin is he is throwing 69% strikes, which is the best on the board today. Anything over 65% is good for a starting pitcher. He also averages 6.3 innings per start, which is second best to John Means. The ability to go deeper in the game in a pitcher-friendly environment against a very weak offense all adds up to Eflin being a strong play for OVER his strikeout total today. The Marlins are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 games, including 7-3 in their last 10.
BET – Eflin over 5.5 strikeouts -105 for 1.5 RW bucks
BET – Marlins under 3.5 runs -130 for 1 RW buck
Colorado Rockies 
at New York Mets 
7:10 pm
Pitching Matchup: Austin Gomber vs. David Peterson
NOTE: the total on this game has moved from 7 down to 6.5, and rightfully so. I had this write-up done early in the day but expected the total to move.
Gomber has eclipsed six or more strikeouts in five out of nine starts, but remember he pitches in Coors Field. In his six road starts, he has gone at least six innings in four with a 33 K to 12 BB line.
The Mets have scored eight runs over the last four games which have been without Pete Alonso, Kevin Pillar, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto. They are fielding what is the equivalent of a Triple-A lineup right now. Gomber has great stuff but can be a migraine headache at times. I'm willing to roll the dice on Gomber on the road against a very weak lineup and go over the 5.5 strikeouts. Even if you have to get it at 6.5 it is still a play-on for me.
BET – Gomber over 5.5 strikeouts -110 for 1 RW buck;
*BETMGM is 5.5, everyone else is now 6.5 +125 to +150
BET – Mets under 3.5 runs -125 for 1 RW buck
