This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Tonight: MLB Bets to Target for March 31
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Season 3-2 +1.71 units
Prior Article 3-2 +1.71 units
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New York Mets 
at Miami Marlins 
Sometimes lines come out and they just do not make sense at first glance, and we get that today in the Mets/Marlins. The Marlins do not have much of a homefield advantage and the pitching matchup is about even with maybe a slight edge to Jesus Luzardo. But the Mets have a significant edge in their lineup against the Marlins. I was under on the F5 in this series yesterday and the Marlins will continue to struggle scoring.
Even with the Mets' recent injuries, they are the superior team in this matchup and getting them at just about EVEN money is incredible.
The total is bumped a little up to 7.5, I am going to pause on laying -1.5 runs on the Mets even at the attractive price of +143 (DraftKings) and stick with the ML play. One of my rules is to back off laying -1.5 runs when it is an extreme pitchers' park and even pitching matchup.
MLB Best Bets for Mets at Marlins
- Mets ML for 2.2 units (DraftKings -110)
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Cleveland Guardians 
at Seattle Mariners 
One of my system plays is to target the matchup with the biggest disparity in starting pitchers and we get that in Hunter Gaddis vs. Robbie Ray. While the sample size is small for Gaddis, it is alarming (2 starts, 7.1 innings, 18.41 ERA, 2.45 WHIP). I am actually surprised at how low this number is on the Mariners, much like the Mets above. Ray was dominant in two starts against the Guardians in 2022 going 13 innings with a 0.00 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 10 strikeouts, and no walks.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians at Mariners
- Mariners -1.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings +130)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
I had some concerns about the Dodgers' lineup this season, but they posted eight runs yesterday and roughed up ace Zac Gallen for five earned runs in 4.2 innings. Now they get Merrill Kelly at home and the top part of the lineup has fared extremely well against him.
Kelly in five starts against the Dodgers last year – 8.25 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9, 2.3 HR/9. While the lineup is different, the top four hitters for the Dodgers own Kelly. (Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy) are a combined 31 for 87 (.356) with 6 home runs, 9 RBI.
I very rarely will step out on hitter props in this article, but I like a few in this spot today.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Dodgers
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 2.2 units (DraftKings +110)
- Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Mookie Betts OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Will Smith OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +140)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mets ML for 2.2 units (DraftKings -110)
- Mariners -1.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings +130)
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 2.2 units (DraftKings +110)
- Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Mookie Betts OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Will Smith OVER 1.5 Total Bases for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +140)
