This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks and Props for Monday, July 31
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San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-130 FanDuel)
As I was writing this, the line moved from -138 to -130 and I'd grab the -130 as soon as possible if it's still available. I'm thinking that the books may not have factored in the trade of C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels and they were arguably two of the top three for Colorado. This game has an over/under of 11.5 and logic would indicate the higher the number, the less chance this ends up being a one-run game. On the mound, I trust Seth Lugo (3.62 ERA) way more than Austin Gomber (7.19 ERA at home this season) and as a team the Padres have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Their team .336 wOBA against southpaws is the sixth-best in baseball with Fernando Tatis (.424) and Manny Machado (.408) leading the team. Tatis (+230) and Machado (+320) have the best anytime home run odds on FanDuel also.
Best Bet For San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
- San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-130 FanDuel)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-133 Caesars)
This wager is taking into account how good the Reds' offense has been recently (after a slump right after the All-Star break) and the matchup against Marcus Stroman. The Reds offense has come back to life over the last two weeks they've hit this run total over in seven of their last 10 games. Looking at Stroman, he's struggled mightily over his last six starts allowing 24 earned runs over 27 innings, good for a 8.00 ERA. Since June 1 Cincinnati has the sixth-best wOBA (.335) in baseball against right-handed pitching making this a bad matchup for Stroman.
Best Bet For Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-133 Caesars)
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+205), Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+215)
These two have combined for only 29 stolen bases this season but this prop is all about fading Noah Syndergaard. Thor has been notoriously bad against opposing base runners and has allowed four stolen bases in two of his last three starts. I like taking both props here (you could even throw in Chase McCormick at +250 as well) as you only need one to hit to make more than your money back. If both hit, that's just a bonus.
Best Player Props For Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
- Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+205), Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+215)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI (+140 DraftKings)
Devers has at least one RBI in 10 of 20 games this month and some really lazy analysis will point out you would have made money betting this prop in all 20 of those games. Devers should be in his typical cleanup spot against George Kirby who has progressively gotten worse as the season has gone on. On a monthly scale since April, he's seen his ERA rise from 2.93 to 3.12 to 3.91 to 4.25 this month. In a small sample, Devers has gotten the best of Kirby going 4-for-8 against him with a double, home run and three RBI.
Best Player Prop For Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
- Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI (+140 DraftKings)
Best MLB Bets Today Recap
- San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-130 FanDuel)
- Cincinnati Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-133 Caesars)
- Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+205), Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+215)
- Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI (+140 DraftKings)