This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Single Game Bets: Phillies at Mets
Are the Phillies a Flawed Team?
The Phillies' offense is not scoring runs like they did last season when they went to the World Series as a Wild Card playoff team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are nowhere close to last year's performance levels. It seems that after every loss the message has been that the team will be just fine and that it is normal to expect Trea Turner, who signed a monster 11-year contract, to be batting 0.240 for the season.
In games played through May 31 last season, the Phillies were scoring an average of 4.48 runs per game (RPG), 1.12 home runs per game, and 3.07 extra-base hits per game. For the first two months of this season, the Phillies are scoring 4.07 RPG, hitting 1.0 home runs per game, and 3.07 extra-base hits per game. The new rules, one of which eliminated the defensive shift, are the dominant reason that they are hitting more extra-base hits than last season. In fact, only eight of 30 teams are averaging fewer extra-base hits this season than last season and most of them just fractionally lower.
Every game the Phillies home to get the offensive engine ignited, but this afternoon they face veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who is 4-2 in eight starts with a 3.54 ERA and 1.131 WHIP including 13 walks and 39 strikeouts. The Mets have won six of these eight starts. In two starts made at Citi Field, he has yet to allow an earned run spanning 11 innings. So, a bit of a stretch to expect the Phillies' offense to have success today against Scherzer.
The Phillies Have Two Choices Facing Scherzer and Neither is Good
The biggest problem for the Phillies is they are lacking plate discipline and rank second highest in MLB with a 32% chase rate. This means that a pitcher can target the perimeter of the strike zone knowing that it is likely that the batter will swing. Moreover, they rank 19th taking 70% of the first pitches in an at-bat. The most important pitch of any at-bat is the first pitch. A hitter's batting average drops 75 basis points for the remainder of the at-bat if the first pitch is a strike. So, Scherzer will look to throw the first pitch strike and get ahead in the count, which then becomes an overwhelming situation for batters. If the Phillies elect to swing at that first pitch and fail to get a hit, Scherzer's pitch count will be quite low allowing him the opportunity to complete seven or more innings.
The Phillies acquired former New York Met, Taijuan Walker, in the offseason, and has yet to pitch at the elite level he did last season. He has gotten just 21% swings and misses and 31% swings on pitches out of the strike zone. Making matters worse is that he is walking 10% and striking out only 19% of the batters he has faced. He has a heavy sinking fastball and when he keeps it down in the zone generates many easy ground ball outs. So, the key for Walker is to get ahead in the count and then target the bottom of the zone to get batters out.
The Phillies Trea Turner is second on the team with an unwanted 37% chase percentage which accounts for his horrid slash of .236/.280/.371/.651 this season. For his career, he has averaged a 10-degree launch angle, but this season he is averaging a 15.6-degree launch angle. The higher the launch angle the less chance the bat has to make solid contact with the baseball. A level swing of 10 degrees stays in the strike zone longer and allows a batter to foul off pitches he is fooled on serving to extend the at-bat.
The power-hitting Kyle Schwarber is batting just 0.169, but unlike many of his teammates does not chase many balls out of the strike zone. The results are that he walks far more and has posted a decent 0.318 on-base percentage and 0.713 OPS. He has always been an 'all or nothing' power hitter, who has averaged a 16-degree launch angle for this career and is averaging a 17.5-degree launch angle this season.
Nick Castellanos is tops in the dubious chase category, but he has posted a solid slash of .290/.338/.453/.791 and he has always been a chaser of pitches out of the zone. He is seeing the ball well and will continue to post better numbers as the season wears on.
Bryce Harper is one of the best hitters in MLB and is the reigning NL MVP award winner. He is setting an example for his teammates to follow with his approach at the plate this season. He is batting well posting a slash of .315/.410/.483/.893 this season and the reason is that he has reduced his launch angle to 5.1 degrees from 12 degrees last season. He has posted an extremely strong 61% hard-hit percentage on fastballs this season so look for Scherzer to start him off with something off-speed.
Best Bets For Phillies at Mets, June 1
With the Phillies on a three-game losing streak and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep to a divisional rival, I like the Phillies getting plus money on the money line.
I also like several player prop betting opportunities in this matchup today.
Bet on Taijuan Walker Over 15.5 recorded outs –105 as offered by BetMGM
Bet on Max Scherzer Over 6.5 strikoeuts –120 at DraftKings
Bet on Trea Turner to have 2 or more hits +185 at PoiintsBet
Bet on Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases –105 at DraftKings
Bet on Nick Castellanos to hit a home run +560 at FanDuel
Bet on Pete Alonso to hit a home run +360 at Caesars
