This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, September 18
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 13-11 (+1.11 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 32-32 (+2.97 RW Bucks)
I'm focusing on the last game of Wednesday's split slate as two American League contenders battle it out, with the game being particularly crucial to a host Mariners team running out of time to secure a Wild Card spot.
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Best Bets
The 88-63 Yankees are headed for the postseason in some form. They are in fairly good shape for the American League East crown with a four-game lead over the Orioles with each team having 11 games to play coming into Wednesday. Naturally, that division title is far from a lock, however, so Aaron Boone's club must keep stacking wins to make any surge by Baltimore a non-issue.
Therefore, we should count on a full-strength lineup and effort from the Bronx Bombers on the road in a tough starting pitching matchup against Mariners starter Bryce Miller, who's been virtually untouchable at T-Mobile Mark this season with 1.99 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 across 90.1 innings there. Yet, the Yankees should have a bit more confidence in being able to conquer that obstacle after what they did to another Mariners starter who'd enjoyed elite-level success at home, Bryan Woo, in Tuesday's game.
New York's offensive firepower was on full display in an 11-2 throttling of Seattle, one where they got to Woo for seven runs on nine hits and a walk over just 4.2 innings. The Yankees now have an MLB-high 46 road wins on the strength of an MLB-high 5.3 runs per road game. While Miller could certainly muck up the offensive works for them a bit Wednesday, it's worth noting the Bombers got to him for five runs on five hits, including three homers, over six innings at Yankee Stadium back on May 22.
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Current Yankees hitters own a collective .324 average and 1.126 OPS across 38 plate appearances versus Miller, with five homers constituting part of those numbers. Meanwhile, opposing starter Nestor Cortes is in a very good spot on paper, as the Mariners have posted a 29.0 percent strikeout rate, .181 average, .283 wOBA and -7.2 wRAA against lefties at home since the All-Star break. Cortes already faced Seattle once this season and blanked the M's over five innings on three hits and three walks, also recording six strikeouts in that same May 22 game in the Bronx.
Seattle's inconsistent bats have shown a bit more signs of life since Edgar Martinez took over hitting coach duties, but the Mariners' offense can still pull a disappearing act on any given night, especially versus a southpaw. Therefore, we're going to string four very synergistic bets together – a Yankees win outright and a lead for them after five innings, and a strong strikeout night for Cortes, who has at least six punchouts on 13 occasions, including nine in his most recent outing.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees vs. Mariners
- Yankees Moneyline (-120 on BetMGM) for 1 RW Buck
- Yankees Moneyline - F5 (-116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-107 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Nestor Cortes 5+ Strikeouts and Yankees to Win (+125 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
