MLB Bets Today: Best MLB Bets and Props for Sunday, August 24
2025 Betting Record: 35-35-2 (-1.92 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 18-15 (+0.98 units)
I'm homing in on a matchup in each circuit for Sunday's action, focusing on what I see as two pitching mismatches that afford us some betting opportunities.
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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets
A notable on-paper starting pitcher mismatch highlights this NL East matinee clash, as Nationals RHP Jake Irvin faces Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez.
Irvin has an 8-8 record, but that's accompanied by a 5.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The right-hander has been even more vulnerable to the long ball on the road than at home, as he sports a 2.1 HR/9 across 78.2 away frames. Irvin has also had plenty of trouble against current Phillies hitters, surrendering a collective .322 average, .934 OPS and 17 extra-base hits (including eight homers) across 155 career plate appearances.
Irvin is yielding a massive .340 average and 1.041 OPS with runners in scoring position, and he's surrendered .273 and .310 averages to the opposition his first and second time through the order, respectively. The Phillies are also averaging a robust 2.87 runs per first five innings per home game, making this scenario all the more daunting.
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On the other side, Suarez has actually been less hittable on the road than at home, with a couple of recent hiccups against unfamiliar interleague opponents in the Angels and Orioles causing his numbers at Citizens Bank Park to bloat a bit. Yet, Suarez knows the Nats well, having held their current hitters to a collective .224 average in 56 career encounters.
And, while the Nats do have a solid .323 wOBA against left-handed hitters on the road since the All-Star break, they also carry a massive 28.0 percent strikeout rate in that split, putting Suarez's K prop into consideration in addition to the SGP that brings the lefty's strikeout requirement by one and banks on Philly being up by at least one run at the end of five.
MLB Picks for Nationals vs Phillies
- SGP: Alt. Run Line F5: Phillies -0.5 and Ranger Suarez 6+ Strikeouts (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Ranger Suarez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Sunday Night Insight
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bets
This series finale between two bitter rivals wraps up at Yankee Stadium on Sunday night with a Dustin May-Carlos Rodon pitching matchup. The Yankees are unsurprisingly solid home favorites, as New York has some advantages, beginning with who's toeing the rubber.
May has actually been solid through his first three AL starts, and he has a 1.50 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9 across the 12 innings covering his last two outings. However, the right-hander had his share of rocky moments earlier this season with the Dodgers after missing the 2024 season due to elbow trouble, and although he does have a very favorable history against Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon, he's never faced the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Additionally, he's also surrendered a pair of doubles to Paul Goldschmidt in six career encounters.
In turn, Rodon has a strong overall history against current Boston bats, whom he's held to a collective .224 average and .298 OBP in 94 career encounters, a sample where he's rang up 19 strikeouts as well. The Red Sox also went into Saturday's action with an abysmal track record against lefties on the road since the All-Star break, mustering just a .205 average, .271 wOBA, -6.9 wRAA and 26.6 percent strikeout rate in that split.
Given the factors cited, an SGP that banks on the Yankees being ahead by at least one run and Rodon getting to at least five strikeouts for the fifth time in the last six starts is under consideration. Then, a bet on Judge, who's averaging 2.3 total bases per game at home and went into Saturday with a .307 average, 1.057 OPS and .433 wOBA against righties at Yankee Stadium, to get to at least two total bases is also worth taking a shot at.
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MLB Picks for Red Sox vs Yankees
- SGP: Yankees -0.5- F5 and Carlos Rodon 5+ Strikeouts (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
MLB Picks Sunday Recap
- SGP: Alt. Run Line F5: Phillies -0.5 and Ranger Suarez 6+ Strikeouts (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Ranger Suarez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Yankees -0.5- F5 and Carlos Rodon 5+ Strikeouts (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
