This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets at FanDuel Sportsbook Tonight: MLB Picks, Player Props, and Parlays for Wednesday, September 14
RotoWire.com's Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props on FanDuel Sportsbook to target today.
Last article: 1-3 (-2.55 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 80-84-4 (-15.99 RW Bucks)
I'm focused on a pair of AL matchups Wednesday night, banking on one pitcher's prior dominance against his opponent and another team's abundant success against left-handed pitching to inform my wagering recommendations.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
The Royals are playing out the string on another non-contending season, and they check into Wednesday's matchup with a forgettable 23-44 road mark. KC has been especially poor against right-handed pitching on the road in the second half of the season, producing a 27.2 percent strikeout rate, .216 average, .278 wOBA and -14.4 wRAA in that split since the All-Star break. They've also been completely stymied by Sonny Gray in two prior encounters this season, as he's pitched to a 2-0 record, 0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 against them in 12 innings, with both outings having come at Target Field.
Zack Greinke's body of work in his age-38 season has been a bit of a mixed bag. The right-hander has an ugly 4-8 record, yet that's offset by a serviceable 4.00 ERA. However, other numbers suggest he's been on the right side of luck, as he's allowed 132 hits over 114.2 innings and has a .287 xBA and 5.04 xERA per Statcast. He just gave up nine hits over six innings to Minnesota in his most recent encounter with the Twins on Aug. 16, and he was tagged for five earned runs over four innings back on May 29 at Target Field as well.
The Royals have also scored just 2.18 runs per first five innings per road game and Gray lit them up for 10 strikeouts last time out, further supporting this trio of wagers.
MLB Best Bets for Royals at Twins
- Twins -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-134) for 1.34 RW Bucks
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (+100) for 1 RW Buck
- Same Game Parlay: Twins moneyline and Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (+168) for 1 RW Buck
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
JP Sears was rolling along nicely in his Athletics tenure until running into the White Sox last time out. Chicago lit up the left-hander for six runs on eight hits over two innings. Naturally, that outing could prove to be an outlier, but Sears has an extremely tough matchup on paper again Wednesday. The Rangers have teed off on lefties at home in the second half of the season, producing an AL-best .309 average, .946 OPS and .404 wOBA in that split. Not only do they have several right-handed mashers that can capitalize against southpaws – Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia being two prominent examples – but left-handed bats Nathaniel Lowe and Corey Seager also hold their own in same-handed matchups, with Lowe especially thriving as evidenced by his .409 average, 1.155 OPS and .492 wOBA against lefties at home.
Dane Dunning has a lopsided 3-8 mark that's somewhat belied by a 4.39 ERA. The right-hander has actually been very good at home, however, notching all three of his wins there alongside a 3.35 ERA, acceptable 1.22 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. Those numbers are partly comprised of a six-inning quality start against Oakland on Aug. 18, when he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks. The A's have been decent against righties on the road in the second half – they own a .241 average .719 OPS and .318 wOBA in that split – but they're averaging a modest 2.14 runs per first 5 innings per road game for the season.
MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Rangers
- Rangers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-106) for 1.06 RW Bucks
- Nathaniel Lowe 2+ total bases (+110) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Twins -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-134) for 1.34 RW Bucks
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (+100) for 1 RW Buck
- Same Game Parlay: Twins moneyline and Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (+168) for 1 RW Buck
- Rangers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-106) for 1.06 RW Bucks
- Nathaniel Lowe 2+ total bases (+110) for 1 RW Buck
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