This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, April 24
YTD 28-39 (-7.01 units)
Prior article 0-5 (-4.62 units)
Prior article recap
- Twins -1.5 for 1 unit
- Eloy Jimenez got to Pablo Lopez for a 3-run homerun, but then the White Sox bullpen blew the lead and the Twins got the 1 run win and not covering.
- Dodgers OVER 1.5 runs F3/OVER 4.5 runs F7 for 0.5 unit each
- Patrick Corbin is a bad pitcher, but even he will have a serviceable start about 30 percent of the time and I ran into one yesterday. The Dodgers still put up 4 runs in the game and won.
- Orioles ML for 1.46 unit
- Greyson Rodriguez got bombed.
DAILY SLATE NOTES
Homeruns are down and a lot of that can be the weather of March/April, but its real and today there have been multiple line movements of totals going down (7 games). Something to keep an eye on and remember when making wagering decisions.
Coming off an 0 for day along with just being in a funk lately, I have tried to scale back on the number of bets and unit size. Baseball early on is just too variant, but I will continue to fire away at what I feel like are the best plays on the board and most predictable. You can lose a lot chasing, which I would never advocate.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago White Sox 
at Minnesota Twins 
Joe Ryan is averaging 7.5 strikeouts per start and now gets to face the worst lineup in baseball. I am avoiding the moneyline and run line on the Twins because we do have a decent pitching on the other side in Garrett Crochet who can also put up strikeout numbers especially after what Erick Fedde did to this Twins lineup Tuesday night. Both starting pitchers have over 32 percent strikeout rates.
We have an extreme moneyline with the Twins at -285 with a total of just 6.5. I can see the F5 total being very low and this being a 1-0 type game. But I am not looking to figure out what side to be on, I know there are strikeouts coming in this game and a ton of them.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Twins
- Joe Ryan 7+ strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Ryan 8+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +144)
- Garrett Crochet 7+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +110)
Oakland Athletics 
at New York Yankees 
Joe Boyle's biggest issue is control and the walks (4.2 per start) as we see huge juice on his walks prop at OVER 2.5 -180. The Yankees have the second highest walk rate against right-handed pitchers at 11.3 percent with a 12-3 record.
Clarke Schmidt has been decent with 4 starts, 20 innings, 23 strikeouts, 8 walks, and just 2 homeruns allowed. I just think this is a situation where the Yankees bats to get Boyle early and often. I would look at the team total as well which is OVER 4.5 -130.
MLB Picks for A's at Yankees
- Joe Boyle OVER 3+ walks for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -180)
- Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
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Miami Marlins 
at Atlanta Braves 
Kyle Tyler is the listed starter for the Marlins who originally had listed Sixto Sanchez. Sanchez has a 6.14 ERA in 7.1 innings, and Tyler looks to be an opener who has not been in the majors since 2022.
Reynaldo Lopez is looking like one of the best bargains in the pitching department as he is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and 0.94 WHIP along with 18 strikeouts and 6 walks. He has posted 6 innings in each of his three starts.
This just looks like a smash spot for the Braves lineup to really unload as they are 8-2 in their last 10 averaging 5.2 runs per game while allowing 3.0 for a 2.2 run differential. The Marlins are averaging 3.2 runs per game while allowing 4.5 for a -1.3 run differential.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Braves
- Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- Lopez OVER 16.5 outs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Sixto Sanchez UNDER 2.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Joe Ryan 7+ strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Ryan 8+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +144)
- Garrett Crochet 7+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +110)
- Joe Boyle OVER 3+ walks for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -180)
- Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
- Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- Lopez OVER 16.5 outs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Sixto Sanchez UNDER 2.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
