Best MLB Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Saturday, July 29
It's been a minute, my children. I know you missed me as much as I missed you. After a brief summer vacation hiatus, I'm refreshed and ready to write up some big daddy winners. Let's get down to business.
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Seattle Mariners 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
My dear darling Mariners currently sit in baseball purgatory at the moment. With a 6.5-game difference in the AL West race and a 4.5-game gap in the wild card stakes, each contest becomes more and more crucial down the stretch. They will do battle with a Diamondbacks squad that has aggressively cooled down after a red-hot start. Both talented teams are in danger of missing the postseason. Will one of them go on a run?
In this battle, we get to see a duel between two stud rookie pitchers in Bryan Woo and Brandon Pfaadt. While both have had some struggles, there's no denying the stuff is there and the future is bright with these two. The primary struggle for Seattle this season has been offensive inconsistency. With not a single player batting over .285, the collective average is near the bottom of the league at .233. Seattle has their moments when the offense that we've expected to see comes out to play, but it's really been the elite pitching that has kept this team in the thick of it. Tonight is a good opportunity to start fast and spot Woo some runs to work with.
Pfaadt has a lot of talent with his five-pitch mix, a mid-90s heater and the ability to miss bats. However, he's got a ways to go. The Bellarmine University product has a staggering 10.34 ERA across four home starts, which includes 23 hits and five taters allowed in only 15.2 innings of work. Granted, he was facing teams in Miami, Boston and Tampa with a much better offensive approach and the ability to make contact, but still it's a little startling. With a guy like Julio Rodriguez murdering the ball in the month of July (.304, four HR, 11 XBH, 13 RBI), this has the makings of Seattle erupting early this evening.
The reeling Diamondbacks had a grip on the NL West for most of the first half of the year. Although they're only four games back, they are quickly losing steam as the Dodgers begin to turn it on in the back stretch like Secretariat. Zona is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and are in desperate search of answers. After dropping the Friday night series opener, they could drop another series tonight. While they will see a rookie on the other side of the hill, Woo has been a lot better than Pfaadt. The struggles for Woo have actually come at home (5.85 ERA), while he's been very strong on the road outside of his MLB debut where the Rangers scorched him for six earned. In each of his last three road outings, Woo has allowed two earned or less, and gone at least 5.1 IP, and we're talking at the Yankees, Astros and Giants.
Arizona has some offensive pieces (you should see who they drafted the last couple years), so scoring tonight is definitely in the conversation. Corbin Carroll can single-handedly take over this game, as the NL ROY runaway candidate is closing in on a 30-30 season. At the end of the day though, I think these two teams are trending in opposite directions, and Seattle has a big edge on the mound, especially in the pen. For this short price, Seattle is a great play on Saturday.
MLB Best Bets for Mariners at Diamondbacks
- Mariners moneyline (FanDuel -118)
Minnesota Twins 
at Kansas City Royals 
Stop traffic. Do you know what day it is? It's Jordan Lyles day. For those that don't celebrate or are unfamiliar, it's when you aggressively bet against Lyles when he has the ball. Allow me to explain why.
Jordan Horton Lyles has made 19 starts in 2023. Of those 19 outings, Kansas City has lost 18 of them! Lyles is strutting a 1-12 mark on the year. Oh, wait there's more! Of those 18 Ls, KC has lost by at least two runs 15 times. It's a thing of beauty. Additionally, he's given up 22 long balls. It's really one of the best trends in the game right now.The 30-win Royals are pushing for the top pick in 2024 with Oakland. The winner is going to have some really amazing options by the way. Kansas City gave up on the season in the second week.
Minnesota was the team I gave out to win the AL Central back in February (or early March) with nearly a 3/1 number. The Twins don't have it in the bag yet because Cleveland is going to fight them tooth and nail the rest of the way. Minny is throwing out a much improved Bailey Ober, proud owner of a stellar 2.76 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Ober has given his team a chance to win just about every time out this year.
The trend is staring at me in the face, so we have to hit it. It's really as simple of a breakdown as it gets. You could lay the 196 if you want, no shame in that. But I'm officially giving out the runline for a -120 price.
MLB Best Bets for Twins at Royals
- Twins -1.5 (DraftKings -120)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mariners moneyline (FanDuel -118)
- Twins -1.5 (DraftKings -120)
