This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: Free Expert MLB Bets for Friday, July 29
RotoWire.com's Michael Rathburn has dug into the best online sportsbooks across the country to identify his MLB bets and MLB player props to target today.
Last Article's Record: 2-4, -3.60 units
Season Record: 125-123-2, +16.43 units
I am going to try something a little different in today's article. I will give an analysis on one game and which direction I think you can go with several options. I will land on a pick or two for the game, but I want to give you a peek inside my head as I go through the decision-making process.
Kansas City Royals 
at New York Yankees 
We have a -400 money line, people. This line opened Yankees -320 and steamed up to -400 and is even higher in some spots. Some people will just look at that line move and ignore the game. Some will see -400 and stay away, rightfully so. The total opened at 8.5 and has remained there. There is opportunity in games like this, however, and you need to look at the whole board to find value.
Here is what we expect to happen: Gerrit Cole will pitch a great game, limiting the Royals to zero or one run, while Yankees post at least six runs off Kris Bubic and the Royals bullpen. Now we go looking for the scenarios with money lines -150 or less to see how to bet on this game.
OPTIONS (DraftKings odds)
- Yankees over 5.5 runs (-105)
- They are averaging 6.2 runs per game in July (MLB Team Game Logs)
- Yankees destroy finesse pitchers (Baseball Reference)
- .825 OPS vs. Finesse (bottom 1/3 in strikeouts and walks)
- Royals have a bottom 5 bullpen (FanGraphs)
- Yankees over 2.5 F5 (-140)
- They are averaging 3.1 runs per game at home F5
- Bubic has a 5.53 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 37 walks, 68 innings
- Cole to record a win (-150)
- Cole has recorded a win in just 9 out of 20 starts
- Cole over 18.5 outs recorded (-130)
- Cole has pitched over 6 innings in just 10 out of 20 starts
- Cole under 4.5 hits allowed (-115)
- Cole has allowed 4 hits or less in 11 out of 20 starts
- Cole under 1.5 walks (-115)
- Cole has allowed 1 or fewer walks in 11 out of 20 starts
- Cole under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+125)
- Cole had allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 9 out of 20 starts
- Yankees -1.5 F5 (FanDuel -138)
- Cole is 15-1-5 in F5s this year (+$616, 94%)
Notice the trends are more predictive and attainable on the Yankees offense compared to Cole's pitching props. After diving deep into this particular game, I have determined that betting on the Yankees offense against a weak Royals pitching staff is the way to approach this game.
MLB Best Bets for Royals at Yankees
- Yankees OVER 5.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)
- Yankees OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1.40 RW buck (DraftKings -140)
- Yankees -1.5 F5 for 1.38 RW buck (FanDuel -138)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yankees OVER 5.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (DraftKings -105)
- Yankees OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1.40 RW buck (DraftKings -140)
- Yankees -1.5 F5 for 1.38 RW buck (FanDuel -138)
Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available player props, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
