This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
We're officially in the final week of the MLB regular season. With the playoffs right around the bend, there are still tons of playoff implications on the slate. I'm targeting a team that needs to continue winning to secure that berth.
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Seattle Mariners (+136) @ Houston Astros (-162) | Total: O/U 7.5 (-124/+102)
This series at the end of last season was major. Seattle was pushing to lock up a playoff spot, but in typical fashion, they collapsed like a house of cards. The Mariners' chances to play in October are now on life support after they squandered a 5-0 lead at Texas on Sunday afternoon. Wyatt Langford made sure Seattle suffered for wronging me the last couple of years by hitting a three-run home run. Houston, though, is in prime shape, up five games in the American League West. A series win for the Astros should lock it up for them.
Hunter Brown has been an important piece in this Houston rotation. Aside from a five-inning, five-run disaster against the A's last Wednesday, Brown has been great since August started. In his last nine outings, he's allowed just 12 earned runs (48 innings). The M's lineup has been primarily garbage all year, but against the Rangers, they scored 21 runs in three games. A big help was Julio Rodriguez finally deciding to show up. Brown's numbers against Seattle this year have been awesome. In three outings, he's surrendered just three earned runs in 16.1 innings.
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Bryce Miller has enjoyed a breakout campaign in his second year as a pro. Miller's emergence has rounded out Seattle's rotation as the league's best and deepest. His 3.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP both rank inside the top 10 as well. In two starts against Houston, he went six innings in both outings, allowing six combined runs with the M's winning both games. The big difference maker could be the 4.44 ERA Miller has on the road this season compared to a microscopic 1.96 ERA at home. The interesting thing is out of the last five games Seattle has lost when he's pitched, it's been by exactly one run, so you would figure this should be a tight contest.
The big thing for me is Houston's strength of play this time of the year. They're a seasoned veteran bunch that has been here a million times. It's a squad that plays its best ball in September and October. Winning eight of their last 11, I like the Astros in this one. The Mariners just shoot themselves in the foot, and their opponent usually does not. It's a bit chalky, but I'll lay it on Monday evening.
Pick: Astros ML (-162 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
