MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The end of September is a bittersweet time for fantasy baseball managers. For those fortunate to win their leagues, the joy of celebrating a well-earned championship is often balanced by the realization that there will be no more daily boxscores to pore over until March. Most of us will take some solace in being able to devote our attention full-time to football, yet having games to follow Mondays, Thursdays and Sundays (and sometimes Saturdays) still leaves a void that clouds half the week.  Yes, baseball — more than any other fantasy sport — can be a grind, but there's something about tracking daily lineup changes, checking schedules in search of two-start pitchers and keeping an eye on top prospects as they ascend toward the major leagues that other sports cannot match.

It's never too early to begin looking toward fantasy drafts next year. Baseball is an ever-evolving sport, and what is trendy one season isn't always en vogue the next. As a case in point, homers are up 17.5 percent in 2019, and a record 55 players have hit at least 30 round trippers this season. That is a drastic difference from just five years ago, when only 11 players eclipsed 30 homers. In the fantasy world, that leads to all-or-nothing power-dependent players such as Kole Calhoun, Hunter Renfroe and Daniel Vogelbach — each of whom has slugged at least 30 homers but batted less than .240 in 2019 — frequently collecting dust on the waiver wire. The evolution of the sport has altered the way fantasy managers look at pitching, too. With an increasing number of teams deploying opening pitchers to handle the first few innings, quality starts have dropped by more than 600 league-wide this season. As such, the fantasy value of consistent, matchup-proof starting pitchers has never been higher.

September is a crucial month not only for major-league teams, but for fantasy baseball owners chasing glory in league playoffs. Whether it's taking a leap of faith on a talented rookie as he navigates through the majors for the first time or relying on the production of a veteran to carry a team down the stretch, fantasy owners tend to recall player performances in September more than any other month when they put together their squads the following year.  In this week's column, we'll have a look at some players who have helped or hurt their ADPs in 2020 drafts based on their performances during the late stages of the season.

RISERS

Cavan Biggio, 2B, Blue Jays: Biggio entered 2019 in the shadows of teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, both of whom not only sat atop the list of Toronto's top prospects but ranked among the mostly highly touted young players in baseball. Biggio followed Guerrero to the majors in May — Bichette's turn wouldn't come until July — after posting a .312/.448/.514 slash line in 43 games at Triple-A. The 24-year-old struggled over the course of his first three-plus months in the big leagues, and his average was a worrisome .207 through Sept. 7. The last two weeks, however, Biggio has found his groove at the plate, registering six multi-hit games and batting .422 (19-for-45) with three homers, 11 RBIs and 14 runs scored.  That has pushed his overall slash line to .236/.359/.430 for the season, but fantasy managers will be most excited about the combination of power and speed he brings to the position; though he has played in only 94 games, Biggio is one of nine players eligible at second base to accumulate at least 15 home runs and 13 steals this season. Biggio will need to cut his 28.9 percent strikeout rate if he is to maintain a serviceable average, but he possesses a tantalizing skillset that should make him a popular target in mixed-league drafts next season.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: Once a fringe top-50 prospect, Lewis' stock fell throughout his first three seasons in the minors as he struggled to make contact and posted underwhelming power numbers in relation to his raw strength. The 11th overall pick in the 2016 draft rebounded somewhat in 2019, batting .263/.342/.398 with 11 homers and 62 RBIs with Double-A Arkansas, though his alarming 29.4 percent strikeout rate continued to raise red flags. Thus, when the 24-year-old received his first callup to the big leagues Sept. 9, few expected him to be an impact bat for the Mariners — or fantasy teams — down the stretch. Yet Lewis exploded onto the scene in historic fashion, becoming the second player in major league history to go deep in each of his first three games. He has continued to rake in nine games since; through 12 starts with the Mariners, he is batting .327/.358/.755 with six homers, 12 RBIs and a staggering 1.114 OPS. There are multiple reasons to be wary of Lewis' production — his 34.0 percent strikeout rate since his callup and disappointing body of work in the minors chief among them — but he has the raw power and speed to be a fantasy stud if his initial stint in the big leagues proves to be legit. There's no guarantee he'll make the Opening Day roster next season, but a strong spring training could put him on the radar as a sleeper pick in 2020.

Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics: Semien was a serviceable but unspectacular shortstop during his first four seasons in Oakland, reaching double digits in homers and stolen bases each year but never batting higher than .257. In NFBC drafts his 2019 ADP was 225, placing him just ahead of Chris Taylor, Andrelton Simmons and Marwin Gonzalez among fellow shortstop-eligible players. However, fantasy owners who put their faith in Semien this season have been handsomely rewarded, as the 29-year-old has established career highs with 32 homers, 91 RBIs and 120 runs scored. Meanwhile, Semien has improved his batting average to a healthy .287 while continuing to contribute stolen bases by swiping 10 bags. To top it off, Semien has played his best ball in September, registering a .378/.457/.756 slash line with seven homers, 18 RBIs and three steals through 20 games this month. Although there is no lack of quality shortstops in the majors at the moment, Semien's numbers place him among the elite performers at the position; his wRC+ of 137 ranks third among shortstops while his 7.3 WAR trails only Alex Bregman. Semien's strong performance down the stretch and ability to contribute in multiple categories is likely to linger in the minds of fantasy owners next season and should earn him a significant bump in ADP.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds: Suarez enjoyed his first All-Star campaign in 2018, belting 34 home runs and racking up 102 RBIs while batting a healthy .283. He was the sixth third baseman off the boards in 2019 NFBC drafts with an ADP of 55 but underwhelmed during the first half of the season as his batting average dropped to .248, though he continued to put up decent counting numbers with 20 homers and 54 runs batted in. Sitting at home during the break apparently ignited a spark in Suarez, however, as he has been on fire throughout the second half, pacing all major-leaguers with 28 homers and a robust .696 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, he has stopped being a drain in the batting average department, posting a .304 post-break average while improving  his wRC+ from 104 to 168. For fantasy owners who deployed Suarez during the playoffs in September, he has been an absolute stud, batting .358/.442/.806 with nine long balls and 17 RBIs for the month. Drafting Suarez still has its drawbacks — he hits third for one of baseball's lowest-scoring offenses and won't contribute many  stolen bases — but considering he is in the prime of his career at 28 and has averaged more than 40 homers and 100 RBIs the last two seasons, it would come as no surprise if his ADP moves up 15-20 slots in 2020.  

Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians: Clevinger opened many eyes last year when he won 13 games while posting a 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP 207:67 K:BB over 32 starts. He was the 18th starting pitcher off the board in 2019 NFBC drafts with an ADP of 60.1 and thrilled in his first two starts, pitching 12 scoreless innings in which he gave up a combined six baserunners while racking up 22 strikeouts. The promising beginning was abruptly cut short when Clevinger suffered a strained back in his second outing, prompting a stay on the injured list that lasted over two months. When he returned in mid-June he looked like a shell of his former shelf, delivering two ugly starts sandwiched around an ankle injury that required another stay on the IL. Fortunately, things began to click again with a dominating six-inning, nine-strikeout performance just before the break, and Clevinger has not looked back since. In 14 second-half starts, the 28-year-old has gone 10-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Among starting pitchers, he ranks fifth with a 2.54 FIP, sixth with an 11.63 K/9 and seventh with a 3.36 SIERA since the All-Star break. Fantasy owners who hung on to Clevinger and deployed him in the playoffs certainly reaped the benefits of their patience as he delivered four consecutive quality starts while allowing only six earned runs and racking up 32 strikeouts in 27.1 innings in September. Although some who gave up on Clevinger after his back injury may be hesitant to pull the trigger on him in the early rounds of 2020 drafts, his youth and elite repertoire make him a viable candidate to compete for Cy Young awards for years to come.

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Red Sox: Rodriguez has tantalized fantasy owners for years with his high strikeout totals but has frequently been found on waiver wires due to control issues and an inability to keep runs off the board. Such was the case in the first half of 2019, when the 26-year-old posted an appealing 9.29 K/9 over 102.2 innings but tempered excitement by registering an equally unappealing 2.81 BB/9 and 4.65 ERA. Although his walks per nine innings have actually increased to 3.86 in the second half, Rodriguez has inexplicably found a way to work around the constant stream of baserunners, compiling a 9-2 record along with a 2.23 ERA over 14 starts. He has been at his best in September, posting a minuscule 0.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while whiffing 39 batters over four starts covering 25.2 frames. Although it seems to defy reason that Rodriguez has enjoyed such success while issuing free passes at an alarming rate, there is some evidence that it's no fluke; for instance, he has limited batters to a .225 average since the break — down 42 points from the first half — resulting in an outstanding 88.5 LOB percentage, fifth highest in the majors. Whether the southpaw's excellence is sustainable with a walk rate that ranks 12th highest in the league is up for debate, but with an 18-6 record this season and his dominance down the stretch fresh in the mind of fantasy owners, he's likely to be drafted in the middle rounds of mixed-league drafts next season.                                     

FALLERS

Manny Machado, 3B/SS, Padres: Machado was frequently targeted in the second round of 2019 NFBC drafts with an ADP of 19. He came to San Diego after signing a massive 10-year, $300 million contract in February, and many hoped the Padres' investment would spur Machado to new heights in his age-27 season. The franchise cornerstone posted decent but unspectacular numbers in the first half, reaching the break with a .266/.339/.489 slash line along with 20 homers and 58 RBI for a squad with aspirations of competing for a playoff spot. However, as the team's record dwindled in the second half, so did Machado's numbers; he is slashing a mediocre .231/.320/.399 with 10 long balls and 24 RBI since the break. Worse yet, he saved his worst month for last, batting only .138 with three extra-base hits in 65 at-bats through 20 games in September. Although Machado is far more talented than his overall statistics suggest, he ranks outside the top 10 among third basemen in most categories this season, placing 12th in homers (30), 14th in RBI (82), 18th in ISO (.200), 18th in wRC+ (105) and 19th in slugging percentage (.452). His name recognition and potential for a bounce-back season should help Machado maintain his place as a top-10 draftee at the hot corner in mixed leagues next season, but it's a safe bet to assume a drop of multiple rounds from his ADP in 2019.

Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs: Quintana has been an enigma for much of his career, displaying flashes of brilliance but generally falling into the category of an average starting pitcher. Many thought his move to the National League in 2017 would translate into superior numbers, but his ERA and WHIP  the last two seasons have instead fallen below his career baselines. Quintana once again teased fantasy managers with an outstanding August in which he went 4-1 while posting a 2.02 ERA and 39:6 K:BB over 35.2 innings, and many plucked him off the waiver wire to deploy him for a string of four September starts against offenses that all rank in the bottom half of the league. Instead of building upon his promising August, however, Quintana imploded over the last three weeks, surrendering 18 earned runs and picking up only 11 punch outs in 13.2 innings. The miserable month has pushed the 30-year-old's ERA (4.55) and WHIP (1.36) to career highs, and with both numbers hovering around the bottom 10 among qualified pitchers, it may be a stretch to refer to Quintana as even average at this point. The southpaw had an ADP of 192 in 2019 NFBC drafts, but his struggles down the stretch and overall declining numbers make him a likely candidate to be passed over altogether in shallow mixed leagues next season.

Will Smith, C, Dodgers: Smith earned his first big-league callup in late May and hit the ground running, belting a pair of homers — including a walkoff — in his first 21 at-bats.  He was sent back  to the minors shortly thereafter but joined the Dodgers again in mid-June, crushing another walkoff home run in his first game back. After another stint in the minors — some of which was spent on the injured list — Smith came up for good July 26 to serve as the Dodgers' primary catcher. Fantasy owners who pounced on the rookie early saw immediate dividends as Smith launched 10 homers and drove in 28 runs while batting .299 in his first 87 at-bats following his final callup. Alas, all good things must come to an end, and those who relied on Smith to fill a void at catcher on their fantasy squads during all-important September experienced a major letdown when the 24-year-old stopped hitting. Through Sunday's games, Smith was batting  .114 in 44 September at-bats, with his only extra-base hit — a solo home run — coming on the 22nd day of the month. Much of the rookie's struggles can probably be attributed to growing pains, though the backstop's 27.9 percent strikeout rate raises some concern about his ability to hit for average. Smith has belted 14 homers in his first 50 games with the Dodgers and ranks second among all catchers (minimum 150 plate appearances) with a .318 ISO this season, so he's likely to be drafted among the upper tier of catchers in all leagues next season. However, his September struggles have caused his star to lose some luster and his projected 2020 ADP to drop to the level of a promising but risky youngster rather than a can't-miss superstar.

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees: Tanaka was a popular mid-round pick in mixed-league drafts prior to this season with an ADP of 132. He got off to a promising beginning, accumulating a 3.20 ERA and 8.3 K/9 over 70.1 innings in 12 starts through the end of May. The 30-year-old began trending downward in June, and by the All-Star break his ERA had slipped to 3.86. Tanaka has continued his descent toward mediocrity in the second half, as he has posted a 5.35 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP in 74 innings. Meanwhile, his strikeout percentage has declined from 20.8 percent to 18.3 percent while his BAA has gone up from .246 to .277. Tanaka hasn't been all bad, but he tends to get lit up when he doesn't have his best stuff, which can be a killer for fantasy purposes. The Japanese hurler will turn 31 in November and has seen his K/9 decline from 9.17 in 2018 to 7.39 in 2019, muting much of the value that placed him on mixed-league radars coming into the season. It's probably too early to write him off just yet, but he'll be a risky late-round option in 2020.