MLB Barometer: Attention to Detail

We are just now hitting the 40 percent mark of the 2017 baseball season, so why am I already getting that burnt-out feeling? I'm leading my NFBC Main Event by 30 points in a league filled with studs. Four of my five NFBC Online Championship (OC) teams are in first, as well, and my fifth slow-starting team is about to take over its league lead. I'm still up near the top of the leaderboard in the CDM salary cap game with 25k up for grabs and have been shuffling between first and second in both Tout Wars and League of Leagues, my only two trading leagues. So far, so good, but April's impenetrable ship has holes and is beginning to leak — two months later. It's possible that I have already peaked and it's all downhill from here, but you know I'll be doing everything in my power to keep that from happening.

Eventually Ryan Zimmerman will get hurt (he missed games Sunday and Monday, but returned and homered twice Tuesday), Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus will remember they're supposed to be middling and at some point, Lance McCullers will hit the DL (oh wait, that just happened too). That said, keeping cool, calm, collected and most of all, organized, is imperative. For those of us who have been playing for a couple of decades, we know that our teams are never as good as we think they are when our hitters are swatting bombs and stealing bags with abandon and our recent FAAB acquisition SP throws back-to-back nine-strikeout shutouts. And vice versa, when your squad is hitting .220 over a three-day span with just one home run.

Your fantasy teams are not identical to the stock market, though, because you have most of the control. If you take your foot of the pedal, or don't pay attention to minute details, you can find yourself in a downward spiral before you know it. My fifth-overall team in the OC can't wait for Freddie Freeman and Noah Syndergaard to provide me with that much-needed boost, but since those timetables are so far away, there are no guarantees that they'll even be worth hanging onto. Holding on two those two 'dead spots' severely limits that team's flexibility. Add in my recent Julio Urias pickup, and the recent McCullers DL trip (hopefully only 10 days), and I'm working with only three bench spots per week.

That's why it's so very important for us to let go of middling, droppable players to have that flexibility at each position. Obviously, that's more easily attainable if your team is loaded with multi-position eligible players like Matt Carpenter, Yangervis Solarte, Jose Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez. An example is when Dustin Pedroia hit the DL two Mondays ago. A team with another 2B, within the NFBC format, would have been able to put their backup 2B into Pedroia's slot for Friday through Sunday. But if a team wasn't properly covered and didn't have a second baseman on their roster because they've been waiting for Tyson Ross to come back and didn't want to drop him, then that's a problem because you're now taking zeroes all week. And that's unacceptable, because as we've learned, every single run, steal, and at-bat matters.

I made a similar mistake last week, but with pitchers. In NFBC, we start nine pitchers (starters or relievers, it doesn't matter) and managers have an unwritten rule that we carry at least two healthy pitchers on our bench. The McCullers news hit hard because once I realized he was hitting the DL and missing this week's start, I was out of luck and would likely be taking a zero. There was a hitter I just had to get, and in turn, my roster heading into Monday had Syndergaard (DL), Urias (minors) and Kyle Hendricks (DL) on my bench. So with McCullers out, my only option was to start Hendricks on the 10 percent chance he comes off the DL and makes a start this weekend. Otherwise, I'm taking a zero. It's a bad break for a team that had similar pitching issues last week, taking a week of zeroes from Cam Bedrosian. Though he was supposed to be activated last Tuesday, Bedrosian ended up having a setback and wasn't ready.

Go back and look at last year's overall winners. Sure, it was hard work with good drafting, sharp lineup moves and savyy FAAB'ing that helped propel them, but they made mistakes just like anyone else. Notice how close some of the category points are at each position. Someone who finished in second or even fourth likely got stuck in a position of taking zeroes, even if for just a half-week period a couple of times. However, that difference could have netted them the $125,000 NFBC grand prize instead of the smaller four-figure prize.

Nothing is more precious than the at-bat (or the start, or the relief appearance for a save). When we're preparing our FAAB bids and dropping in oodles of conditional players behind our top bids, it's so important that you do so with the understanding of who you are starting that week — and that you have potential coverage should some bad news go down early on a Monday.

RISERS

Mallex Smith, OF, TB

Smith was all the rage on Sunday FAAB day, garnering heavy triple-digit bids in NFBC leagues, providing a shot in the arm for fantasy teams in need of a speed boost. He was a must-bid for folks who were forced to DL or drop Kevin Kiermaier, but unfortunately those who were already planning to bid on him had to deal with his price skyrocketing after a monstrous Friday performance (2-for-3, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 SB). Smith is a lefty slap-hitter with virtually no power, and all of his value will come from being able to hold down the leadoff spot (against RHP) and run wild. Smith stole 16 bases and scored 28 runs in 215 plate appearances for the Braves last year but missed a good chunk of the season (from mid-June to mid-September) after fracturing his thumb. Smith has a good history of plate discipline in the minors and has the potential to swipe 30-plus bases from this point on. Being one of the people who lost Kiermaier in multiple places on teams that could use steals, I went ahead and splurged, snagging Smith for an average of $175 between two NFBC squads and my Tout Wars team. As we recall from last year's Rajai Davis/Hernan Perez/Eduardo Nunez mid-season boost, these mid-summer free agent rabbits can end up being worth their weight in roto gold.

Eduardo Nunez, 3B/SS/OF, SF

Very few players are swinging a hotter bat than Nunez. So far this month, he is 17-for-44 (.358) with two homers, seven RBI, 10 runs and four swipes, settling in at the ever-important two-hole for the Giants. Nunez spent most of his career with in the American League (Yankees/Twins) before coming over to the NL West at last year's trade deadline. The 29-year-old Dominican started the season slowly, slashing just .250/.278/.293 in April, but did swipe seven bags and now has 17 on the season. What's interesting is that the beginning of Nunez's surge corresponded with the Giants promoting Christian Arroyo. With Nunez looking lost at the plate and to accommodate Arroyo, the Giants moved Nunez to left field — a position Nunez was unfamiliar with. Since that day, Nunez is hitting .300 with four homers and 24 RBI. He is on pace to improve on last year's career-best 40 SB, though the 16 dingers certainly appear to be an outlier. Nunez has become nearly impossible for opposing pitchers to strike out, posting a miniscule 8.4 percent strikeout rate, though he continues to take walks at a rate under five percent, right around his career rate. Nunez is proving his fantasy worth as a multi-eligible player we had concerns about in the spring given his relatively high 114 average draft position. Ten homers with 40 to 45 steals and a batting average north of .285 will certainly play at that draft slot.

Jeff Hoffman, SP, COL

The 2014 ninth overall pick seems to have earned a role in the Rockies' rotation after a string of fantastic starts. He's won all four games of his starts, striking out at least seven batters and allowing more than one earned run in just one of those starts. Part of said domination includes impeccable control — just one walk over his last three starts. When Tyler Anderson and Jonathan Gray return to the rotation, the Rockies will have four first-round picks in their rotation (including Kyle Freeland). When all are healthy, the Rockies will have a tough decision about an odd man out. In addition to the four mentioned, there's Antonio Senzatela, who has been solid in his rookie season, as well as rotation veteran Tyler Chatwood, who is least likely to lose his spot when all are healthy. Senzatela has struggled over the last six weeks and would likely be the one to get sent down to Triple-A or moved to the bullpen, though middle relief may not be ideal for a guy who lacks some dynamics. As for Hoffman, he's the second most talented SP on the staff after Gray. Of course, maintaining a ridiculous 30 percent K-BB percent is certainly not possible, especially as he takes the mound for some home starts in warmer weather. For now, Hoffman is a must-own in 15-teamers and worth a stab in 12-team leagues based on his upside and dominance thus far.

Seth Lugo, SP, NYM

I like rooting for the underdog. After winning me over with his stellar eight-start run as a rookie, I've bought back in on Lugo, albeit with one eye open. Mets management support him, as well, as they've made concessions to ensure Lugo a rotation spot after he returned from a partial UCL tear in his elbow last week, going as far as employing a six-man rotation for the time being.

Despite a below average 17 percent strikeout rate, Lugo posted stellar ratios (2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) in 64 innings as a rookie. Old pal Derek Carty of ESPN and RotoGrinders isn't as enamored by Lugo, making salient points about Lugo possibly being overhyped because of the 'shiny new toy' factor and the outlier spin rate on his curveball. He astutely asserts that spin rate is not nearly as important for curveballs. Derek's supporting points are more than valid; he points out how Lugo's 4.71 xFIP may allude to some ERA regression this season, as well as the fact that his minor-league track record was unspectacular. There's no denying that Lugo was a draft-day afterthought, with 1,031 players selected before him in the 2011 draft.

Yes, Lugo is a risky proposition in 12-team leagues given his lack of whiff-ability, but his home park, maturity, tenaciousness and the ability to avoid major blowups in his starts (so far) certainly makes him viable going forward. My biggest concern with Lugo is the elbow injury and the fact that there's a good chance he doesn't make it through the season unscathed. For the time being, we'll simply be careful using him in road matchups against potent offenses and hope that he can be helpful with ratios and a few wins along the way.

Honorable Mentions

Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, PHI – He's now hitting .419 with five stolen bases this month (three Monday). A career .290 hitter, Kendrick is coming off his worst season in recent memory with stories of his demise apparently premature. Kendrick usually hits in the top-third of the lineup, but started as the Phillies' cleanup hitter on Monday and will start at second base while Cesar Hernandez is out. He's the perfect addition for fantasy teams who have to make up ground in batting average.

Austin Slater, OF, SF – A solid contact hitter in the minors, Slater can cover all three outfield positions and was promoted earlier this month to man the black hole in left field for the giants. Slater crushed southpaws in the minors but still has to improve the elevation in his swing in order to hit for more power. Most importantly, Slater and the Giants head to Coors Field this weekend, so feel free to stream away if you haven't already.

CC Sabathia, SP, NYY – A career renaissance, or so it seems. Sabathia has been incredibly consistent over his last five starts, winning each of them and allowing more than one earned run just once. Sabathia has limited the usage of his changeup and has leaned more heavily on his slider, which opposing batters have combined to hit just .173 against. His 19 percent strikeout rate is on par with the last two seasons and he has done a good job at limiting homers (1.14 HR/9). Sabathia will likely still end up with an ERA around 4.00, but he has a nice two-step on paper this week against the Angels and Athletics on the road.

FALLERS

Logan Forsythe, 2B/3B, LAD

One of my favorite later-round middle infield targets, Forsythe has been nothing short of a disappointment thus far, but I'm not chalking him up as a loss quite yet. My expectations were quite reasonable for a 220 ADP player who was slated to lead-off for one of the National League's best offenses. But things got off on the wrong foot (pun intended) right away. Forsythe started off cold, then hurt his toe in mid-April and eventually ceded the leadoff role to Andrew Toles when opposing right-handed pitchers took the mound. It was a longer recovery than expected and included a couple of setbacks — a full month in all. Forsythe has occasionally hit first for the Dodgers since returning and has gained third base eligibility in most formats, but he's been lost at the plate with just two hits in 28 at-bats this month. Between the slow start, injury and not being in the lineup every day, Forsythe has failed to build any momentum at the plate. Forsythe has been uncharacteristically striking out in nearly a third of his at-bats and has just one home run in 116 plate appearances.

He's a tough hold in 12-team leagues. There are other risers at the position of late and with Justin Turner healthy and in the lineup, Chris Taylor surging and Chase Utley hitting well atop the lineup against righties, we currently have a logjam that makes it tough for us to rely on Forsythe. All of this stated, I'm not cutting bait on Forsythe in my 15-teamer and am still holding him (on the bench) in a couple of 12's where the alternatives are thin. Forsythe was a late-bloomer and someone who found confidence at the plate later in his career. He doesn't boost any specific category, but I believe we're not too far out from a period of time where he will be a solid fantasy contributor. The slow start may depress our projections on him, but I'd still expect anywhere between 10 to 15 homers, .270-plus the rest of the way and his biggest contribution coming from the always-underrated runs category.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, TOR

The notion is not a new one, but one that bears repeating: Tulo's best days are long behind him. The perennially injured former Coors Field stud has already missed time with a hamstring injury, which is somewhat of a recurring issue. His power is down significantly as Tulo has managed just two home runs in 117 plate appearances. His .111 ISO is nearly half his career mark and a 29 percent hard-hit rate is the lowest we've seen since his injury-shortened 2012 season. Tulowitzki was no draft-day target of mine, though I did grab a share in a draft where he fell nearly three rounds past his ADP. During his DL stint, I successfully streamed a mix of Tim Beckham and Asdrubal Cabrera. I reacquired Cabrera after his own DL stint and basically mixed the two in based on matchups — ie, Tulo in my lineup when he's at home since he's hitting nearly 100 points higher there than on the road. I do believe there's a hot streak or two in his bat and that a 20-home run season is still possible. The issue is that Tulowitzki no longer positively contributes in runs and batting average and that many of us hold on to him based on what he accomplished earlier in his career. I'd still hold and play Tulo over Dansby Swanson and Brandon Crawford in 12-teamers, especially given the greater power upside, but I'd be hard-pressed to keep him over someone helpful across more categories like Cabrera.

Rick Porcello, SP, BOS

I've definitely missed in a few spots pitching-wise this spring, but the one wise thing I did this season was pass on most of the SP2/3 options in the 75 to 125 overall range, instead opting for upside arms like Lance McCullers and James Paxton. What that means is that my ratios are better than most as I have no shares of Porcello, Masahiro Tanaka, Danny Duffy, Kenta Maeda, Cole Hamels, Aaron Sanchez or Jose Quintana. Call it luck if you will, but there was a common theme with a few of these guys (namely, Porcello, Sanchez and Duffy). They were pitchers coming off career seasons who would have to duplicate last year's performances to earn their respective ADPs. Porcello has been consistent in one regard: he has lasted at least six innings in 13 of 14 starts. Unfortunately, the accompanying numbers have been hurting his owners. Porcello has a 4.67 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and has allowed 10 earned runs and 18 hits over his last two starts. Porcello's 37.4 percent ground-ball rate is a career low and has been downward-trending since his rookie season. Worst of all, with this latest start, Porcello ranks only behind the Tigers' Daniel Norris in allowing baseball's second highest hard-hit rate (42.5 percent). There isn't much bright side outside of his career-best 21.8 percent strikeout rate and the fact that he plays for a team that offers ample run support. Porcello owners should feel comfortable benching him for questionable starts and hope that he finds a way to rediscover some of last year's magic.

Kelvin Herrera, RP, KC

There has to be some type of explanation for this rough stretch and owners are hoping it isn't that he's hiding an injury. Herrera has been lit up in two of his last four outings, both of which came in non-save appearances. He has already allowed more home runs in 24 innings (seven) than he did in all of last season's 72 innings (six). His 98-mph fastball is indeed a dandy with wicked movement, but it's mostly his slider that has been getting touched up. Three of seven homers allowed have come against the slider and opposing batters are hitting .318 against it, compared to .077 last year. Herrera is evidently losing luster on his trade value, but he would still be, far and away, the best bullpen option for a team like the Nationals. Though Matt Bush has dutifully held the Rangers' gig, Arlington could end up being Herrera's landing spot. That said, Herrera is too good of a pitcher to not be able to rediscover that ninth-inning grit and I believe we'll begin to see that in the coming weeks.