Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

After looking at some underappreciated hurlers to begin last week, this edition will start with a few hitters who deserve more publicity:

• Luke Adams is a 20-year-old third baseman in the Milwaukee system who demonstrates exceptional patience at the dish with a .448 OBP through 97 games at High-A. He's also racked up 11 home runs and 28 steals while producing almost as many walks (76) as strikeouts (83) to provide an intriguing fantasy profile - especially if he can improve his contact.
• Colton Ledbetter is hitting .272 with 14 homers and 31 stolen bases across 94 contests at High-A down on the Rays farm. He's been a little less patient than expected at this level, though that hasn't hurt his overall production. Ledbetter looks the part of a prototypical Tampa prospect with solid tools across the board.
• Though the trade for Agustin Ramirez puts a bit of a damper on his future prowess, Joe Mack has cranked 22 home runs mainly with the Marlins' Double-A affiliate.
• Teenager Michael Arroyo packs a lot of punch at Low-A and High-A for Seattle. Despite only standing 5'8" and 160, he's flashed power, speed and an exceptional handle of the strike zone slashing .281/.406/.501 with 19 homers, 77 RBI, 11 steals and 69 walks from 102 outings.

UPGRADE

Robert Calaz, OF, COL – Calaz tormented the opposition in the Arizona Complex League to begin 2024 as he posted a .349/.462/.651 line over 49 games to go with 10 home runs, 45 RBI and 12 stolen bases over that span. He also drew an impressive 32 walks during that stretch. Calaz's success resulted in a promotion to Low-A, where he's kept it going slashing .293/.375/.561 with two homers, seven RBI and three swipes through 11 games. The 18-year-old may still be scratching the surface of his potential, so now may to the time to invest in him before others catch on.

Dalton Rushing, C, LAD – One of the top catching prospects out there, Rushing may eventually come out from behind the dish given that he's blocked by Will Smith in the bigs. The 23-year-old has displayed a keen ability to handle the bat hitting for both average and power while accumulating plenty of walks. Rushing started the year at Double-A, where he went .270/.378/.512 with 17 home runs and 59 RBI. He was recently promoted to Triple-A and has recorded remarkably similar numbers by slashing .270/.417/.514 with two homers and five RBI across 11 outings with almost as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (11). Rushing's either played left field or DH at this new level, so it's clear the Dodgers want to find ways to eventually get his bat into their lineup. He could come up in September, but certainly next season feels like his real debut.

Charles McAdoo, 2B, TOR – McAdoo came over to the Blue Jays midseason in a deal for utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa. A 13th-round pick in 2023 by the Pirates, he's already exceeded expectations by batting .302 at Low-A and then .336 at High-A before his stint at Double-A. McAdoo has done much more than hit for average with 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A. Add in the ability to get free passes, and the San Jose State product has played himself into legitimate prospect status.

Drue Hackenberg, P, ATL – The last name may sound familiar as brother Christian played quarterback for the Jets while other sibling Adam is a catcher in the White Sox system. Drue was a second-rounder in last year's Draft and already appears to be making a name for himself. He began the campaign at High-A, where he compiled a 3.64 ERA and 62:28 K:BB in 59.1 innings. Hackenberg's actually been even better since a promotion to Double-A with a 3.51 ERA and 57:16 K:BB from only 41 frames. His control has been better during this stop, though he hasn't been getting nearly as many ground balls as before. When Hackenberg is right, his sinking fastball induces a lot of ground balls. He has a solid frame and athletic pedigree and could contend for a rotation slot soon enough if his strikeout stuff continues to improve.

CHECK STATUS

Braxton Ashcraft, P, PIT – Ashcraft has been on the Injured List for the past month with forearm soreness, but he's expected to return before the end of the season. He already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and posted standout numbers between Double-A and Triple-A prior to his recent absence registering a 3.69 ERA and 63:8 K:BB in 53.2 innings and then only allowing one earned run in 18.1 frames. Ashcraft will turn 25 this offseason, so there's every reason to believe he can challenge for a rotation role behind Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in 2025 assuming the current ailment isn't serious. Of course, health is the biggest factor at this point, especially considering he's never completed more than 72 innings in any year since being drafted in 2018.

Dylan Beavers, OF, BAL – Beavers remains close to a top-tier prospect in the Baltimore system, yet there are a couple of red flags. His power stroke hasn't developed despite above-average raw pop with only 12 home runs at Double-A after only 11 between High-A and Double-A last year. Beavers is also batting a career-low .243 this season. He's retained stellar stolen base figures (27 so far) and isn't afraid to take a walk, but the O's would like to see some more consistency and power. The upper levels of the system and the majors are crowded with hitting talent, which doesn't help Beavers' cause. He just turned 23 and there's still plenty to like about his profile, though he's far from a sure thing.

Isaac Coffey, P, BOS – A 10th-rounder in 2022, Coffey is a high-strikeout hurler with a deceptive arm slot and delivery with a 112:44 K:BB over 92 innings for Double-A Portland while opposing batters have gone .220 against. The two knocks on him are the lack of velocity on his fastball and the difficulty in repeating his unique delivery. Coffey could become a high-leverage reliever or could stick in the rotation. And if the Ks continue to pile up, the Red Sox will find some way to use his strengths. For now, Coffey has demonstrated enough length in his outings to stay as a starter.

Troy Melton, P, DET – The jury is still out on Melton, who flashes frontside rotation anchor upside while still having so much more to achieve. Though his strikeout rate has ticked up, he's been far more hittable with batters going .273 against. Melton has been particularly snake bitten by the long ball having conceded 17 dingers across 21 starts. He boasts a versatile arsenal and hasn't allowed too many walks, though it appears that the former catcher needs time and experience to hone his craft. Detroit doesn't have a very deep system in terms of pitching prospects as Jackson Jobe and Jaden Hamm are the only ones firmly ahead of Melton in the pecking order, so there's certainly a path.

DOWNGRADE

Jacob Melton, OF, HOU – Melton's stock has dipped a bit in 2024. He's always been a toolsy prospect with some swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate has experienced a steep decline. Melton has also never hit above .261 at any level. While he's generally climbed through the Astros system since being taken in the second round during 2022, his inability to make consistent contact has cast some doubt as to his future role. Melton was recently promoted to Triple-A, where - despite the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League - he's only batting .188 with 22 strikeouts over 19 contests. Add in the intrigue of 20-year-old outfielder Luis Baez who's already at Double-A, and Melton appears to have lost a bit of his luster.

Matthew Lugo, OF, LAA – Lugo has been shut down with a hand injury and may not see the field for the rest of the campaign. He was dealt by Boston along with three other minor leaguers in exchange for Luis Garcia, yet suffered the injury after the trade. Lugo had been experiencing a rebound season prior to that as he slashed .287/.376/.578 with 17 home runs, 57 RBI and 16 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. With the Halos not contending for a playoff spot, there's little reason to rush him back. Lugo should enter next year as one of the club's top hitting prospects and should have an opportunity to debut for the parent club.