Farm Futures: Breakout Hitters

I hope those of you who play in shallow keeper and dynasty leagues enjoyed last week's piece, because this one is for the deep-league crowd. High-caliber breakout players like Daulton Varsho, Jeisson Rosario, Colton Welker, Lucius Fox, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe, and Peter Alonso should have been owned in all serious dynasty leagues entering the season, but there are plenty of interesting hitters experiencing a breakout of sorts who are still available in many competitive leagues.

I have combed through each of the 10 full-season leagues to provide one breakout hitter per league. These prospects vary in quality, but I have specifically tried to pick players whose breakouts have the potential to be legitimate, ignoring the low-pedigree hitters who are simply benefiting from a sky-high BABIP through four weeks.

PACIFIC COAST LEAGUE

Oscar Mercado, OF, Cardinals: The worst thing that can be said about Mercado is that he is firmly blocked at the big-league level in 2018. St. Louis has three veteran everyday outfielders and two big-league ready outfield prospects in Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader, so a lot would have to go wrong for Mercado to get a long look this season. However, he has some abilities that may allow him to separate himself from the back half of that group in the coming years.

The Cardinals have been trying to inject more speed into the lineup for a few years now, and while Tommy Pham helps in that regard, Kolten Wong and Dexter Fowler need to get on base to use their wheels, and they probably aren't legitimate 20-steal threats under the best of circumstances. Enter Mercado, who already has nine steals (on 14 attempts) this year after stealing 38 bases on 57 attempts last season. That's not a great success rate, but he is a plus runner and he is aggressive when he gets on, so I think he could steal at least 20 bases over a full season in the majors. Mercado also has a chance to be a plus defender in center field, which could give him the leg up for playing time over O'Neill and/or Bader.

So now we're looking at a player at Triple-A in his age-23 season who is hitting for some power (four home runs, .163 ISO) while showing good contact skills and a patient approach (11:9 K:BB in 96 plate appearances). That's a player who needs to be rostered in most serious dynasty leagues, no matter how blocked he appears. If he were to get traded to a team like the Royals, White Sox, Tigers or Giants, all of a sudden he would be a borderline top 100 prospect.

INTERNATIONAL LEAGUE

Christin Stewart, OF, Tigers: Two players in and I'm already diverging from the spirit of this article, but while Stewart is probably owned in even shallower dynasty leagues, he is experiencing a really noteworthy breakout, and the International League is extremely light on breakout bats.

I referred to Stewart as "a one-tool player" in his preseason outlook, as it seemed clear he would eventually hit for power in the big leagues, but it also seemed clear that he would hit for a low batting average while getting on base at a merely decent clip. The power is in line with his career norms (.257 ISO, four home runs), as is his 12.4 percent walk rate, but everything else has changed. After striking out a little over 25 percent of the time in 160 games at Double-A, he has whittled that rate down to just 14.6 percent through 89 plate appearances in his first taste of Triple-A. He also seems to have overhauled his pull-heavy approach, ripping just 34.9 percent of his hits to the pull side, which is easily his career-low mark in a full-season league. The result has been a .311 batting average that is supported by a .322 BABIP. Unless he starts whiffing substantially more or loses his all-fields approach, Stewart looks like a middle-of-the-order bat capable of hitting for average and power while walking at an above-average clip. The Tigers will undoubtedly want to give him another month or two at Triple-A to see how real these changes are, but he could make noise this summer in redraft leagues.

SOUTHERN LEAGUE

Nick Solak, 2B, Rays: I'm cheating a little here too, as Solak is probably owned in most leagues where 150-200 prospects are rostered, but the Southern League was not stocked with many breakout hitters, and Solak was added a week ago in the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational, so I'm guessing he's still out there in some other leagues.

While the Rays have a lot of middling options at the keystone ahead of Solak on the organizational depth chart, they aren't roadblocks in the manner that Gleyber Torres would have been in New York, so the offseason intradivision trade helped increase his dynasty-league stock. Since returning to Double-A, where he spent his final 30 games of 2017, Solak has upped his walk rate from 7.6 percent to 16 percent -- the fifth-best mark in the Southern League. Unless we really want to bet on the juiced MLB baseball, Solak probably won't be a 20-homer hitter and he doesn't have the speed to steal 20 bases in the majors, but he could eventually hit first or second in the lineup and go 12/12 or 15/15. We won't see him in the majors until 2019 now that he's in the Rays' system.

TEXAS LEAGUE

Sean Murphy, C, A's: Part of the reason I'm highlighting Murphy is to show how complicated the process is for evaluating catching prospects for dynasty leagues. There are four fantasy-relevant catchers over the age of 23 who are hitting at least fairly well in the Texas League right now: Austin Allen (212 wRC+), Andrew Knizner (197 wRC+), Will Smith (101 wRC+) and Murphy (160 wRC+).

At this point it's hard to argue that Allen and Knizner are the two best hitters of the four. However, Allen's defense figures to limit his playing time behind the plate, and he may even need to move to the outfield or first base, which won't be happening for him in San Diego. Knizner's defense is better than Allen's, but won't be on par with what the Cardinals are used to at the position, and he trails Yadier Molina and Carson Kelly on the organizational depth chart (although it's possible he passes Kelly this year). I would understand if someone picked Knizner as the most appealing fantasy prospect of the four, but it's easy to see how his playing time could be limited once he gets to the big leagues. Scouts love Smith's defense behind the plate, but he is not only behind Austin Barnes on the organizational depth chart after this season, but he is also currently splitting time with phenom Keibert Ruiz at Double-A. Additionally, Smith's bat is not on par with that of Allen's or Knizner's, so there are a lot of ways he could disappoint in the coming years from a fantasy perspective.

This leaves Murphy, who might be the best of both worlds. He projects to be Oakland's best defensive option behind the plate in early 2019, serving as a potentially plus defender with a double-plus arm. Despite the fact he is hitting .345 in a small sample in his second crack at Texas League pitching, he probably won't be better than a .250 or .260 hitter in the big leagues, but that could come with 20-to-25 home runs and enough plate appearances to finish top 10 at the position annually in runs and RBI. Catcher defense is more important in fantasy than defense at any other position because it directly impacts playing time, as teams are willing to play complete offensive negatives there as long as the defense is good enough. Murphy's bat may fall short of what we're looking for, but his glove will give him every opportunity to succeed.

EASTERN LEAGUE

Cavan Biggio, 2B, Blue Jays: This is the first time in my life that I've written about Biggio, which is a rarity for a 23-year-old prospect at Double-A who is getting scooped up early this season in dynasty leagues. I wouldn't even be writing about him in this space if he weren't starting to get picked up, but there is enough interest that I think he's worth dissecting.

Biggio, who came off the board in the fifth round of the 2016 draft, wasn't a typical late-draft bloodline flier -- those types typically go 10 or 15 rounds later -- so he hasn't come out of nowhere. I think this is just a hot start, and not something worth acting on this month, even though that means you probably won't end up with him in any leagues if it ends up being legitimate. As Keith Law pointed out on Twitter, a lot of Biggio's early production looks less impressive when factoring in the parks in which he has done his damage. His plate skills will get him to the big leagues, but it's too early to get carried away projecting him as a potential everyday player.

FLORIDA STATE LEAGUE

Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds: Everything about Stephenson's start to the season for the Tortugas looks legitimate. His 1.0 BB/K is tied for the second-best mark in the Florida State League, and at 21, he is age appropriate for the level, especially for a backstop. Stephenson is also hitting more balls to the opposite field (41.8 percent) than to the pull side (35.8 percent) while still getting to his plus raw power in games. His defense behind the plate has not drawn plus grades from evaluators, but he does elicit average grades and his plus arm is a weapon, so I don't see him moving from the position anytime soon. He will probably never be a .290 or .300 hitter, but I'm not ruling anything out, given his contact skills and all-fields approach. His willingness to take a walk adds another layer of safety to the profile. The No. 11 overall pick in 2015 should already be owned in two-catcher dynasty leagues, but he may soon be worth adding in the majority of one-catcher formats as well.

CALIFORNIA LEAGUE

Gavin Lux, SS, Dodgers: Lux hasn't had much fanfare since entering pro ball after the Dodgers selected him with the No. 20 overall pick in 2016, but the Cal League has a way of rejuvenating hitting prospects who underwhelm in the Midwest League. He is still just 20 years old, which is young for the level, and making contact/drawing walks has never been an issue for him. Lux will likely have to move to second base eventually and he doesn't have plus power, so he will need to hit for a high average in order to profile as a regular. While the favorable hitting conditions of the league and his .392 BABIP have combined to help him in this department, his newfound extreme opposite-field approach (50.7 percent) shows that he is capable of making adjustments at the plate, and speaks to his barrel control. He is also a plus runner, although he is just 3-for-7 on stolen-base attempts with Rancho Cucamonga. Lux should be added in deeper leagues, but I'm waiting a few more weeks before adding him in leagues where only 150-200 prospects are rostered.

CAROLINA LEAGUE

Conner Capel, OF, Indians: While Capel doesn't have any loud offensive tools (unless you really believe in his hit tool), he may be above average across the board, which would result in an everyday role in the big leagues. He made the jump from Low-A to High-A this year and subsequently lowered his strikeout rate (from 22 percent to 16 percent) while upping his walk rate (from 8.7 percent to 10.6 percent). Capel, who turns 21 on May 19, is also finally experiencing good luck on balls in play (.373 BABIP) after posting a BABIP of .275 or lower at his previous two stops in pro ball. He isn't getting to quite as much power against High-A pitching, but he has been more successful on the bases (9-for-12) than he was in the Midwest League. Even if we assume his .325 batting average regresses a bit, we could look up at the end of May and see a hitter at an age-appropriate level with a .300 average, .360 OBP, four or five home runs and 15-to-20 stolen bases, at which point it will be too late to add him in serious leagues.

MIDWEST LEAGUE

Demi Orimoloye, OF, Brewers: Orimoloye was part of my 20 Hitter Predictions piece in the preseason, where I predicted he would hit 20-plus homers while stealing 20-plus bases across stops at Low-A and High-A. He is not quite on that home run pace (two in 85 plate appearances), but the stolen bases should come easily, and I have faith that he'll flirt with 20 homers if he can maintain his current approach. His pull rate had been above 53 percent at every other stop, but this year he is pulling just 40.7 percent of his hits while striking out a career-low 20 percent of the time. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound outfielder is a physical specimen, and it doesn't take a well-trained scout to look at his body and easily envision 30-homer power. It will be all about how much quality contact he makes against upper-level pitching. If he keeps up this current pace, he will be a top 100 prospect by season's end.

SOUTH ATLANTIC LEAGUE

Calvin Mitchell, OF, Pirates: Mitchell's bat was always going to have to carry him, as he is a below-average runner and will end up in left field, but so far he has answered that bell. Roughly a league average hitter (104 wRC+) in the Gulf Coast League last year after getting popped by Pittsburgh with the No. 50 overall pick in the draft, Mitchell got a little lost in the shuffle this offseason. That still may be validated when his production stabilizes, but there's a chance he ends up with a plus hit tool and plus power, which would play just fine at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Minor league add/drops in CBS Expert Dynasty Leagues:

RDI

Added

Nick Kingham, RHP, Pirates ($16)
Daniel Palka, OF, White Sox ($3)
Conner Capel, OF, Indians ($1)
Yu Chang, SS, Indians ($1)

Dropped

Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds (my drop)
Beau Burrows, RHP, Tigers
Yanio Perez, OF, Rangers
Justin Lopez, SS, Padres

TDGX

Added

Austin Slater, OF, Giants ($4)
Cavan Biggio, 2B, Blue Jays ($3)
Daniel Palka, OF, White Sox ($3)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2B, Rangers ($2)
Tony Santillan, RHP, Reds ($1)
Yairo Munoz, SS, Cardinals ($1)
Jasrado Chisholm, SS, Diamondbacks ($1)
Buddy Reed, OF, Padres ($1)
Austin Allen, C, Padres ($0)
Joe Dunand, SS, Marlins ($0)
Eric Skoglund, LHP, Royals ($0)
Jose De Leon, RHP, Rays ($0)
Yonathan Daza, OF, Rockies ($0)

Dropped

Mitch Garver, C, Twins
Domingo German, RHP, Yankees (my drop)
Cornelius Randolph, OF, Phillies